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vsa with Malcolm

  • #32,221
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:44pm Sep 18, 2019 2:44pm
malcolmb14, this is what i have been watching closely since Monday. Every push up with Volume, closed on the somewhat in the middle of the Bar (Marked the Bars with the Yellow Arrows), this was suspect to me and obviously SM were putting on shorts as the kept distributing and obviously FOMC was the big move ..

On the 1-hr TF, before FOMC, the wicks and close confirmed the move down was imminent ...

Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} i am VERY surprised why no one has asked how did i know this .... very
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  • #32,222
  • Sep 18, 2019 9:36pm Sep 18, 2019 9:36pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} 200 points on this one .... wycoff spring out of channel with trap move to start .. 400 point fomc day not bad for a noob {image}
I suck. No trade on the 15 min. for me.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #32,223
  • Sep 19, 2019 6:47am Sep 19, 2019 6:47am
personally post some confusions about Accumulation & Distribution here
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Accumulation
To accumulate means to buy as much of the stock as possible, without significantly putting the price
up against your own buying, until there are few, or no more shares available at the price level you have
been buying at. This buying usually happens after a bear move has taken place in the stock market
(which will be reflected by looking at the Index).【No problems in this paragrapg - -】
To the syndicate trader, the lower prices now look attractive. Not all of the issued stock can be
accumulated straight away, since most of the stock is tied up. For example, banks retain stock to cover
loans, and directors retain stock to keep control in their company. It is the floating supply that the
syndicate traders are after.【can understand all the way to the last sentence of the this paragraph. but What is floating supply and does it have anything to do with Accumulation ??】
Once most of the stock has been removed from the hands of other traders (ordinary private
individuals), there will be little, or no stock left to sell into a mark-up in price (which would normally
cause the price to drop).【why few stocks exists upon the price and why this price would cause the price to drop?】
At this point of ‘critical mass’,【does 'critical mass' a terminology? what is it refers to?】 the resistance to higher prices has been
removed from the market.【what is the meaning of 'resistance' here? sell orders? and why the resistance would be removed at that time? 】 If accumulation has taken place in lots of other stocks, by many other
professionals, at a similar time (because market conditions are right【what is RIGHT market conditions here?】), we have the makings of a bull
market. Once a bullish move starts, it will continue without resistance, as the supply has now been
removed from the market.【why the supply would be removed once a bullish move starts?】
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Distribution
At the potential top of a bull market, many professional traders will be looking to sell stock bought at lower
levels to take profits.【yes】 Most of these traders will place large orders to sell, not at the current price available,
but at a specified price range. 【yes place lots of selling orders at a price range】Any selling has to be absorbed by the market-makers, who have to create a
'market’. 【How does author know these selling orders are all absorbed by MM? and why say the MM create a 'market'?】
Some sell orders will be filled immediately, some go, figuratively, 'onto the books‘. 【some orders onto the books means these orders are waiting for finishing?】
The marketmakers(MM) in turn have to resell, which has to be accomplished without putting the price down against their
own,【why MM have to absorb selling orders then resell them? what are they going to do?】 or other traders’ selling. This process is known as distribution, and it will normally take some time for the process to complete. In the early stages of distribution, if the selling is so great that prices are forced down,
the selling will stop and the price will be supported,【the selling stop results in a price support】 which gives the market-maker, and other traders, the chance to sell more
stock on the next wave up.【when price is supported, why is there a wave up here???】 Once the professionals have sold most of their holdings, a bear market starts,
because markets tend to fall without professional support.【why markets tend to fall without professional support? Are professionals and market-makers two different groups? Are they opposite? Without professionals support, even if market-makers and retail traders are heavily involved, will price/market still fall?】

and the last, supply/demand the author mentioned in the article means buying orders/selling orders, right?

Frankly speaking, I am most perplexed by the author's explanation of ACC and DIST in all basic definitions. please help ..
learning...
  • #32,224
  • Sep 19, 2019 7:23am Sep 19, 2019 7:23am
hefei, one thing I noticed when studying trading/TA is that:

-different words/terms are used to refer to the same thing
-the same word/term is used to refer to different things

It is a matter of knowledge baggage to get the hang of discerning those terms.


Now, the accumulation/distribution, when I read the book I didn't have any of the doubts/questions you are asking. Perhaps you need to read a couple more times.

The smart money/big boys/market makers/composite man (nomenclature irrelevant) are the ones who can move the markets, they have the deep pockets for that. In distribution, the reason why they absorb the sell orders and then sell again (and the reverse for accumulation) is because they have a large amount of orders to fill, so they have to keep price bouncing in a range in order to keep filling those orders. When they absorb the sell orders they make the price go higher with the buying, but just enough so the price don't skyrocket through an important level and attract more buyers. They push a bit higher so they can sell at a better price. They can't sell or buy all their orders at once, otherwise you would have a gigantic move.
  • #32,225
  • Sep 19, 2019 9:22am Sep 19, 2019 9:22am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I suck. No trade on the 15 min. for me. {image}
I still suck. But an entry did appear today (I did not take it-this is a CDF, the time of day, and oh yeah, I suck).

Yesterday

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Today

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #32,226
  • Sep 20, 2019 12:57am Sep 20, 2019 12:57am
I'm done trading USD, but was watching the chart because of the aggressive trend.

An upthrust completely rejecting the close of yesterday's highest volume bar.
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  • #32,227
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:03am Sep 20, 2019 1:03am
Here is a trade I'm in, I posted this trade live in another thread.

Watching the 119.40 level on EJ, the level is shared by both the FOMC low and yesterday's close. Today so far seems to be struggling to approach the level.
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  • #32,228
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:17am Sep 20, 2019 1:17am
good monring all ...

watch for weakness on gold on a higher time frame ... its consolidating in the London open range .. watch for trap up move and sell in the overlap
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,229
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:40am Sep 20, 2019 1:40am
Quoting malcolmb14
good monring all ... watch for weakness on gold on a higher time frame ... its consolidating in the London open range .. watch for trap up move and sell in the overlap
Are you looking for sells because of the FOMC bar? Looks like its a widespread bar pushing through previous lows.
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  • #32,230
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:32am Sep 20, 2019 2:32am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Are you looking for sells because of the FOMC bar? Looks like its a widespread bar pushing through previous lows. {image}

the 30 min is in a consolidation channel after ramp up in asia under low volume .... this is why

i will look for drop under channel and then sell on sow ....

also yesterday dow dropped om some small bs china comment but seems talks going well so i suspect dow was mark down and gold mark up ....

In london markets are churning. ...not much ta on 30/15/10

so a i am waiting patiently for dow buys and gold sells ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,231
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:39am Sep 20, 2019 2:39am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} the 30 min is in a consolidation channel after ramp up in asia under low volume .... this is why i will look for drop under channel and then sell on sow .... also yesterday dow dropped om some small bs china comment but seems talks going well so i suspect dow was mark down and gold mark up .... In london markets are churning. ...not much ta on 30/15/10 so a i am waiting patiently for dow buys and gold sells ....
Thanks, I guess I didn't understand what you meant by consolidation channel, but I do see the low volume leg up. That's something I need to work on identifying.
  • #32,232
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:32am Sep 20, 2019 3:32am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Thanks, I guess I didn't understand what you meant by consolidation channel, but I do see the low volume leg up. That's something I need to work on identifying.
gold in particular loves setting these traps in asia ....

if you wait for london and us open range other asia moves are reversed
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,233
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:35am Sep 20, 2019 3:35am
Quoting Anotan
Here is a trade I'm in, I posted this trade live in another thread. Watching the 119.40 level on EJ, the level is shared by both the FOMC low and yesterday's close. Today so far seems to be struggling to approach the level. {image}
I manually closed this trade, its just going sideways.. I kinda think that price is being supported, either that or it could be there are no sellers around.
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  • #32,234
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:56am Sep 20, 2019 4:56am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} gold in particular loves setting these traps in asia .... if you wait for london and us open range other asia moves are reversed
there she goes

took 4 hours to stalk this trade
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,235
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:03am Sep 20, 2019 5:03am
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} there she goes took 4 hours to stalk this trade {image}
now we want a sow on up bar to confirm that a trend is going to form
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,236
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:43am Sep 20, 2019 5:43am
oi look ing weak look for sow and move to 56.5
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,237
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:46am Sep 20, 2019 5:46am
watching for strength dow
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,238
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:56pm Sep 20, 2019 4:56pm
Quoting dogol
{quote} If I see the background, the base will be tested and then it will go up..... i will add another possibility that we could see up movement directly without testing the base with the first target around 1524 (1. red line) and the second target 1555 (2. red line) ... i would prefer the 2. scenario ... ...but off course I could be wrong... Happy trading {image} {image}
.... back to my analyse ... why I preferred 2. scenario because i thought it was already tested with the bars (in the circle) ... but it was my mistake because it wasnt really tested or crossed the low ... but because of the background I was pretty sure it will go up ... and i think the movement will go to the 1. target 1542 and the 2. target 1555 ... lets see if it will go according to the plan ....

learning is never ending process ...

i could be wrong as always ...

happy weekend
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  • #32,239
  • Edited 5:58pm Sep 20, 2019 5:34pm | Edited 5:58pm
thats why money management very important even if you have VSA skill .... so how should you trade as VSA trader (my personal view)?

first make a deep analyse about the trend before you trade.... in case of trading GOLD on my previous post ... if you trade according to the background (following the trend) .. you could open buy limit at the low (green line) ... or if you open first position at around blue line and you see that the price didnt go as you plan (dont panic) just add another position maybe around yellow line ... because you are pretty sure about the background that it will go up ....

what is a good money management ... for me ... Balance/100.000 ... if you use this MM you will trade with relax and not in panic even if the price didnt go as your plan ... but it needs knowledge to read the chart and trade according to the trend ....

I'm still learning ... and never ending ...

happy weekend ...
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  • #32,240
  • Sep 21, 2019 3:42am Sep 21, 2019 3:42am
Quoting dogol
{quote} .... back to my analyse ... why I preferred 2. scenario because i thought it was already tested with the bars (in the circle) ... but it was my mistake because it wasnt really tested or crossed the low ... but because of the background I was pretty sure it will go up ... and i think the movement will go to the 1. target 1542 and the 2. target 1555 ... lets see if it will go according to the plan .... learning is never ending process ... i could be wrong as always ... happy weekend {image}
what do you notice about the up bar ?????

high volume or low volume ?

move based on " china delegation not going to Montana " and was based on trump saying china threat to world ...

lol its all bullshit ...

break of 1507 now sell the shit out of it .. Friday was a low volume up day based on a bulkshit bad news story
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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