Natural Gas Stopped out Bad start | Forex Factory

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Natural Gas Stopped out Bad start

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 12, 2019 9:16am Sep 12, 2019 9:16am
Today was a bad start! I was stopped out of the Natural gas event based accounement. I was bullish and bearish on the US dollar on a few different pairs. I didn't rely wholly on the day but also went against and bet against the dollar in a few instances as to consider luck. I didn't even take account the signals!
I can't determine how much volatility is in the market. I am still getting grounded in interamarket analysis.
I am considering Kelly betting as as strategy and even event based trading but I am unsure how lagging indiciators can be useful in looking for a a high proabiality trade.
Wish me luck and any advice. As a former stockbroker I didn't do much of my own due dillgence and have only recently read part of the intellegent investor and have had increased training.
  • #2
  • Sep 16, 2019 2:42pm Sep 16, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting Innovator757
Today was a bad start! I was stopped out of the Natural gas event based accounement. I was bullish and bearish on the US dollar on a few different pairs. I didn't rely wholly on the day but also went against and bet against the dollar in a few instances as to consider luck. I didn't even take account the signals! I can't determine how much volatility is in the market. I am still getting grounded in interamarket analysis. I am considering Kelly betting as as strategy and even event based trading but I am unsure how lagging indiciators can be useful...
What the hell have you done? I mean, were you shorting the NGAS? Because it does seem it went according to its (up) trend... Recent events just boosted that a little... Or were you LONG but stopped out at micro swing due to too hight leverage?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3
  • Sep 17, 2019 1:24pm Sep 17, 2019 1:24pm
Get back up and get back out there! Natgas is one of my favorite trades, both historically and in today's market. Good luck!
  • #4
  • Sep 17, 2019 1:47pm Sep 17, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting nastynatty
Get back up and get back out there! Natgas is one of my favorite trades, both historically and in today's market. Good luck!
Yeah, I agree... today was rather somewhat correction, specially if you were watching eurusd... Would not lost hopes on NGAS just yet Was kinda expected, really, the eurusd part at least.. and NGAS (in USD) is atm like in -50% (neg correlation) vs eurusd? I expect for this to go some more.. meaning, eurusd going up a little, just to get back on track and then to decline slowly (again), from that we could derive, at least PARTLY that NGAS would recover after
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #5
  • Sep 23, 2019 3:23pm Sep 23, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} What the hell have you done? I mean, were you shorting the NGAS? Because it does seem it went according to its (up) trend... Recent events just boosted that a little... Or were you LONG but stopped out at micro swing due to too hight leverage?
I was actually looking at a few short term trades. I didn't get to do a full analysis because I have fixed my routine in trading still building momentum while I take care of personal matters.
  • #6
  • Sep 26, 2019 11:02pm Sep 26, 2019 11:02pm
Quoting Innovator757
Today was a bad start! I was stopped out of the Natural gas event based accounement. I was bullish and bearish on the US dollar on a few different pairs. I didn't rely wholly on the day but also went against and bet against the dollar in a few instances as to consider luck. I didn't even take account the signals! I can't determine how much volatility is in the market. I am still getting grounded in interamarket analysis. I am considering Kelly betting as as strategy and even event based trading but I am unsure how lagging indiciators can be useful...
NatGas can be difficult to trade. What’s your methodology like? It’s kind of a weather play which I really like about it.

Regarding position sizing, fwiw I believe Thorpe said position sizes derived from Kelly criterion are about twice as big as they really should be. You’d really need to know your numbers (win %, R:R) before you could implement that.

Its funny you you said you read “part” of the Intelligent Investor because I only read part of it too. It’s pretty dry and not too useful for trading. Graham is good no doubt though, I’ve been meaning to finish the book because his unique form of analysis makes you think about investing in a different light.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #7
  • Sep 30, 2019 3:10pm Sep 30, 2019 3:10pm
Yeah my former landlord has my Intelligent investor.Lol! I am actually reading it again. Graham makes mention of the speculator versus the investor. He states that the speculator has much more trouble. Buffet from my research is averaging 35% per year. I have had the audio book of the Quants and have dug deep in its methodology. You made mention of Ed Throrpe I learned about him through there. My favorite Quant is James Simmons.
I looked at a video on youtube about commodities traders and found its was stated that mathematicans and the like are the worst traders by an oil trader. I have read the Market Wizards book. I just got a sense of the mind frame and now understand the aspect of discpline that was being emphasized. The technical approach has credibility. I read John J Murphy Techanical analysis book. He states that when you look at the fundamentals they diverge from the charts. I say this happens because of poltical, economical, and financial factors., such as war, a commodoties trading company creating scarcity, a M&A, or a Trump tweet!
Its al fascinating I have a pdf on scalping. The minds who wrote it seem very astute. Scalping is about small gains, safety of capital over the short run, and quick exits.
  • #8
  • Mar 10, 2020 2:16pm Mar 10, 2020 2:16pm
Quoting EF5
{quote} NatGas can be difficult to trade. What’s your methodology like? It’s kind of a weather play which I really like about it. Regarding position sizing, fwiw I believe Thorpe said position sizes derived from Kelly criterion are about twice as big as they really should be. You’d really need to know your numbers (win %, R:R) before you could implement that. Its funny you you said you read “part” of the Intelligent Investor because I only read part of it too. It’s pretty dry and not too useful for trading. Graham is good no doubt though,...

I was refering to this quote!
  • #9
  • Last Post: Mar 10, 2020 2:29pm Mar 10, 2020 2:29pm
Quoting Innovator757
{quote} I was refering to this quote!
Ah, okay. Thanks for clarifying. I wasn't sure what you were referring to in the PM.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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