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vsa with Malcolm

  • #32,201
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:09am Sep 16, 2019 9:09am
I posted this trade live over on Real Trading.

I took the trade without thinking, price popped up with a 2 bar reversal on increase spread it was an obvious trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It really was a nice and easy trade, but I kinda psych'd myself out with the Daily chart, especially Thursday's action which to me looks very bullish. I ended up breaking even quickly, luckily price just dropped and hit my TP. I'm not sure what the lesson is to learn from this, but hopefully I'll figure it out.

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  • #32,202
  • Sep 16, 2019 9:23am Sep 16, 2019 9:23am
Quoting Anotan
I posted this trade live over on Real Trading. I took the trade without thinking, price popped up with a 2 bar reversal on increase spread it was an obvious trade. {image} It really was a nice and easy trade, but I kinda psych'd myself out with the Daily chart, especially Thursday's action which to me looks very bullish. I ended up breaking even quickly, luckily price just dropped and hit my TP. I'm not sure what the lesson is to learn from this, but hopefully I'll...
That looks like a regular upthrust. Technically, in a 2bar reversal, the second bar breaks the high of the previous bar a little bit before reversing. But nomenclature is irrelevant if you understand the price action. Of course this stuff will come in different flavors.
Now if you are talking about the 2nd screenshot(the daily one), you shouldnīt be taking a trade like that, it is like catching a falling knife. Yes you have a 2 bar reversal, but you donīt know if that is a bottom, so you would be bottom picking. Price is in a downtrend, so you have very low chances of that trade developing. You know, you should only take springs on uptrends and upthrusts in downtrends, so you can follow the same logic here.
  • #32,203
  • Edited 1:37am Sep 17, 2019 1:11am | Edited 1:37am
Quoting Gauer
{quote} Now if you are talking about the 2nd screenshot(the daily one), you shouldnīt be taking a trade like that, it is like catching a falling knife. Yes you have a 2 bar reversal, but you donīt know if that is a bottom, so you would be bottom picking. Price is in a downtrend, so you have very low chances of that trade developing.
I am being a little facetious here, but which trend?

21 hulls is green so the trend is up.

14 SMA the trend is down.

If I look at highs and lows of PA, then the trend is a lower low and a higher high which is a range at best.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,204
  • Sep 17, 2019 5:55am Sep 17, 2019 5:55am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I am being a little facetious here, but which trend? 21 hulls is green so the trend is up. 14 SMA the trend is down. If I look at highs and lows of PA, then the trend is a lower low and a higher high which is a range at best. {image}
I donīt look at moving averages to check a trend. You should look at price, MA are lagging indicators. To ME, price will only be uptrending after it breaks:

A- The supply line of the red downtrend channel
B- The supply line of the white trend channel and not come back inside the channel (supply line turns into demand)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,205
  • Sep 17, 2019 9:26am Sep 17, 2019 9:26am
Hi,guys
There was a problem on page 19 of the MTM regarding the two basic definitions for bullish and bearish volume,
My understanding is that when both volume and price increase or decrease (volume and price move in the same direction), the volume here is defined as a 'bullish volume'. When volume and price move in the different directions, the volume here is called the 'bearish volume'. Am I right?
Another puzzle is that whether this process occurred in ONE bar or in Several bars>? Thanks.
learning...
  • #32,206
  • Sep 17, 2019 11:47am Sep 17, 2019 11:47am
Quoting hefei
Hi,guys There was a problem on page 19 of the MTM regarding the two basic definitions for bullish and bearish volume, My understanding is that when both volume and price increase or decrease (volume and price move in the same direction), the volume here is defined as a 'bullish volume'. When volume and price move in the different directions, the volume here is called the 'bearish volume'. Am I right? Another puzzle is that whether this process occurred in ONE bar or in Several bars>? Thanks.
The definition is correct, and he is not talking about bar by bar analysis. It is a move/leg/wave.

A wave up with increasing volume having pullback with lower or decreasing volume is bullish.

A wave down with increasing volume having a rally with lower or decreasing volume is bearish.
  • #32,207
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:14pm Sep 17, 2019 4:14pm
Gold weakness tomorrow ..

either down move prior to fomc or up move to trap buyers and then down

Massive sellers positioning
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,208
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:16pm Sep 17, 2019 4:16pm
Anyone used mt5 .. I got the trader guider plug in for my 5 and was ripping it up this evening in is on a 10/5/4/3/1 min time frame combo

fee screen shots I hope you do not mind

Super sexy ...
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  • #32,209
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:31pm Sep 17, 2019 4:31pm
gold trade explained

1 . no demand
2 no demand
then engulfing

then sell with down trend as we are looking for sow ...
Attached Image
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,210
  • Sep 17, 2019 4:37pm Sep 17, 2019 4:37pm
Quoting Anotan
I posted this trade live over on Real Trading. I took the trade without thinking, price popped up with a 2 bar reversal on increase spread it was an obvious trade. {image} It really was a nice and easy trade, but I kinda psych'd myself out with the Daily chart, especially Thursday's action which to me looks very bullish. I ended up breaking even quickly, luckily price just dropped and hit my TP. I'm not sure what the lesson is to learn from this, but hopefully I'll...
if you had looked at higher time frames you would have seen the upthrust in the background on a 30 and not been freaked out
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,211
  • Edited 7:29am Sep 18, 2019 5:21am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting malcolmb14
Gold weakness tomorrow .. either down move prior to fomc or up move to trap buyers and then down Massive sellers positioning {image}
If I see the background, the base will be tested and then it will go up..... i will add another possibility that we could see up movement directly without testing the base with the first target around 1524 (1. red line) and the second target 1555 (2. red line) ... i would prefer the 2. scenario ...

...but off course I could be wrong...

Happy trading
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  • #32,212
  • Sep 18, 2019 5:36am Sep 18, 2019 5:36am
Quoting Gauer
{quote} I donīt look at moving averages to check a trend. You should look at price, MA are lagging indicators. To ME, price will only be uptrending after it breaks: A- The supply line of the red downtrend channel B- The supply line of the white trend channel and not come back inside the channel (supply line turns into demand) {image}
additionally I would say to check the trend, you should see the background trend meaning look at volume on the left side because the professional trader will trade according to the trend on the background...
  • #32,213
  • Sep 18, 2019 10:34am Sep 18, 2019 10:34am
Quoting dogol
{quote} If I see the background, the base will be tested and then it will go up..... i will add another possibility that we could see up movement directly without testing the base with the first target around 1524 (1. red line) and the second target 1555 (2. red line) ... i would prefer the 2. scenario ... ...but off course I could be wrong... Happy trading {image} {image}

Potential Mark up prior to fomc as noted in my post .. 1503.5 sell stop gold with take profit 1485

also longer term look at tje weekly ... china trade deal will be done next month that's what the charts are saying .. gold 1350

do you really think us put any tariffs on china ?

China owes 45 percent of us debt and could sink them economically in heart beat .. no all that bs was designed to manipulate the markets ... super clear
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,214
  • Sep 18, 2019 11:20am Sep 18, 2019 11:20am
Quoting hefei
Hi,guys There was a problem on page 19 of the MTM regarding the two basic definitions for bullish and bearish volume, My understanding is that when both volume and price increase or decrease (volume and price move in the same direction), the volume here is defined as a 'bullish volume'. When volume and price move in the different directions, the volume here is called the 'bearish volume'. Am I right? Another puzzle is that whether this process occurred in ONE bar or in Several bars>? Thanks.

Up bars on increasing volume or ultra high volume is always the work of smart money entering the markets

if you see a bear volume divergence on an a. Up trend followed by a major sow it's a reversal

opposite for sells
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,215
  • Edited 11:56am Sep 18, 2019 11:37am | Edited 11:56am
....
  • #32,216
  • Sep 18, 2019 12:21pm Sep 18, 2019 12:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Gold weakness tomorrow .. either down move prior to fomc or up move to trap buyers and then down Massive sellers positioning {image}
I totally agree with, any upmove is great opportunity to short at the peak, but in case of down move then better to wait again for retracement to short

Based on the chart below, it still carry a potential agressive move upward, due to the intact upward channel, however, there is weak resistance line that need to be broken, the volume indicates a distribution over the past week, hence, its a bit confusing.. based VSA it indicates a sell, however, its on support level based on upward channel. Unless the channel is broken, I presume gold is still bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,217
  • Sep 18, 2019 12:31pm Sep 18, 2019 12:31pm
Maybe today is the day when all the trending channels will get broken.. Just a thought...
  • #32,218
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:17pm Sep 18, 2019 2:17pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} Potential Mark up prior to fomc as noted in my post .. 1503.5 sell stop gold with take profit 1485 also longer term look at tje weekly ... china trade deal will be done next month that's what the charts are saying .. gold 1350 do you really think us put any tariffs on china ? China owes 45 percent of us debt and could sink them economically in heart beat .. no all that bs was designed to manipulate the markets ... super clear
done

and added this to the mix

news bar
wide spread down ,,,, market does not like this
sideways and then shake out ( marked )
Attached Image
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,219
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:19pm Sep 18, 2019 2:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} Potential Mark up prior to fomc as noted in my post .. 1503.5 sell stop gold with take profit 1485 also longer term look at tje weekly ... china trade deal will be done next month that's what the charts are saying .. gold 1350 do you really think us put any tariffs on china ? China owes 45 percent of us debt and could sink them economically in heart beat .. no all that bs was designed to manipulate the markets ... super clear
i am VERY surprised why no one has asked how did i know this .... very
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #32,220
  • Sep 18, 2019 3:09pm Sep 18, 2019 3:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
{quote} done and added this to the mix news bar wide spread down ,,,, market does not like this sideways and then shake out ( marked ) {image}
200 points on this one .... wycoff spring out of channel with trap move to start .. 400 point fomc day not bad for a noob
Attached Image
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