WTI Crude Oil Trading

shorted nowD
EDIT
Dam EUR/USD nearly took the shirt off my back

THEY FORGOT ABOUT THE GAP

it is possible that it goes up to 80 dollars

Sure they did hoping retail traders will setle for a few bugs not knowing they are entitled for way more money

WTI BASING IN THE $60S WITH RISK PREMIUM FACTORED IN
16 September 2019, 21:14

 

1. Oil grounded in the $60s following the weekend attacks on Aramco facilities.
2. In response, President Trump tweeted that the US was ''locked and loaded".

An oil geopolitical risk premium is starting to be factored into following the weekend attacks on Aramco facilities have resulted in a massive disruption in global energy supplies, with Saudi Arabia's oil production nearly halved and the world's largest crude processing plant set ablaze.
While Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility, the US administration, including Pompeo, promptly attributed the blame for the attacks directly on Iran. In response, President Trump tweeted that the US was ''locked and loaded", pending verification with Saudi Arabian authorities, suggesting that some form of retaliation is not out of the question.
"Looking forward for energy markets, questions remain in gaging the extent of the disruption, including how quickly the Saudis can reach full production, for how long will other OPEC/non-OPEC nations fill the gap, and whether a potential retaliatory strike will see an additional risk premium emerge for crude," analysts at TD Securities explained and expanded on the matter below with respect to OPEC's net move:
OPEC now in focus

1. "While Russia's energy minister suggested that there was no need for an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting, highlighting that commercial stockpiles are sufficiently large to offset the disruption, OPEC+ nations are expected to immediately ramp up their output.
2. Further, we acknowledge that OPEC nations, and particularly Saudi Arabia, have a direct incentive to downplay the impact of the disruption, as each individual nation would benefit from disincentivizing others' production. This suggests that media reports likely underestimate the impact and represent a lower bound for any disruption assessment.
3. Nonetheless, in this context CTAs are set to ramp up their net positioning in Brent, and WTI prices are anchored near the 60.50/bbl key trigger level for algorithmic buying."

Oil levels
A daily doji in the week was followed by a swift and aggressive sell-off of over 6.5% down to trendline support. However, the market bounced hard on the fundamental weekend news which has thrown technicals off. The upside target was the 78.6% Fibo and Sep highs in the 58.70s which have been blown out of the water and instead, bulls march all the way to the 26th April spike lows with eyes now on the April highs at 66.58.

Well I must admit that I am kinda clueless atm about the oil... I mean, it seem we all consolidated for the SOUTH view.. when this happened, over the f. weekend...
I mean it's like pelham123 or something... Yeah, saudis will sure rebuild/compensate for it rather fast, that is not that much of a problem.. The problem if this will be a (trend) sign of a permanent (increased) exposure... priced-in in the price, progressively... I can not model from this atm... will unfortunately have to wait at least this week... It sure does it seem the price might still rise, but will this hold? Someone mentioned eurusd... I believe the daily drop was to deep... (or it will go radically lower/parity by the end of the year... not to keen on that but it is still on the table)... I hope the exposure stabilises... specially after they will put some automatic defence system... (this does cost a little sure, but nothing compared to the potential damages)... Would still bet on the south AFTER this (if it does) stabilises... just maybe with some offset priced-in obviously... Also would bet on eurusd to rebound for some 80-90pips.. by the end of the week... And we have the PARTY on Wednesday... FED messing with the markets again,..

On the other hand, I've already seen forgotten Gaps who suddenly remembered to close them , after convincing everyone who was going the other way.
I sincerely know if the Iranian attack is not part of a global conspiracy of crooks to take the money.
We are still in the rangebound

Subdued chaos. Does a new uptrend start from this, or does the downtrend resume in the next few days?

Lol not trying to make sense of anything at the moment....
It's insane

Subdued chaos, I like that! Making any large moves right now seems like pure speculation aka gambling. I make try to make small moves to profit on the downside, but I'm keeping that risk tight because no one knows what the next development is!

The million dollar question. I'm not sure either.

In my opinion, oil has more support to fall than rise, the US want lower prices and will do all to achieve, having came out to say they are prepared to draw on their own reserves to help the shortfall is enough for me to know where they stand, now this for me could turn sour as I'm short, I'm taking a punt as always but a calculated one at that, no gambling just a strategic based position based on the fact oil output is deliberately regulated to conserve price, if this was not the case I would be on the sidelines, no advice intended fellow oiler's, I could well be wrong, already seen my position escalate, but now back to a more comfortable situation, sticking with it for now, D

I believe it will go down

War with Iran not on Trumps list, D

I'm getting long as soon as I get my new account set up. There is too much potential risk looming for prices to fall, so it seems like a good risk/reward ratio. Either we go sideways, or something crazy happens and prices rocket. With Iran getting aggressive in an already-tense region, there is any number of wild outcomes possible.

I'm thinking this will go on for a couple months.

grapped this just a few seconds a go from twitter:

@staunovo
Aramco told some customers that October oil deliveries will be delayed #oott