Some big down moves imminent on US/Euro indices? | Forex Factory

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Some big down moves imminent on US/Euro indices?

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 14, 2019 8:15am Sep 14, 2019 8:15am
My charts indicate the strong possibility of some pretty big down moves imminently on the big US and Euro indecis, similar to the falls we saw at the end of 2018. There could be a bit more up movement first, or as early as next week prices could begin to tumble, so perhaps 4,000 pips on Dow/S&P, and 1000 on Dax could be the sort of drop we see over the next few weeks or so.

Nothing is ever certain in this game obviously, so this is just a pointer to what I see as a good possibility, especially right now with prices riding high after a sustained period of buying.
  • #2
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:27am Sep 15, 2019 8:27am
Thanks for your submission, i am really interested in knowing more about the fall of indices, kindly post more information
  • #3
  • Sep 15, 2019 8:57am Sep 15, 2019 8:57am
Quoting dele5000
Thanks for your submission, i am really interested in knowing more about the fall of indices, kindly post more information
I'll try and put something up here a bit later today in explanation, either a chart or two or a short video.
  • #4
  • Edited 11:59am Sep 15, 2019 11:32am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting dele5000
Thanks for your submission, i am really interested in knowing more about the fall of indices, kindly post more information
Here is my 2 weekly S&P chart. I have warning signs of a price drop all over the place this week, most strongly on US equities. I cannot show you everything, so thought I'd draw attention to this chart, which shows the price almost up on the trend line, not quite there but close, whilst MACD along the bottom of the chart has been falling all the while creating a strong diversion pattern. To me it looks like the price is close to popping and turning for a significant leg south, it may be this coming week, or it may rally a bit more, even breaking out into new highs before I think turning sharply south. Time will tell.

Also, pay attention to the most recent candle. Strong moves, the so called ' Death throe ' candles, often precede a change of direction.

Away from the technicals, which is all I focus on as trader, there also needs to be a catalyst, so whether yesterday's Saudi oil refinery attack spooks the markets or not remains to be seen, and we should find out during the Asian trading session coming up in a few hours time.

ps - In light of the oil attacks, combined with the technical picture, a gap lower in equities tonight is possible, so anyone currently long needs to bear that in mind.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US 500 (DFB).png Size: 53 KB
  • #5
  • Sep 16, 2019 6:30am Sep 16, 2019 6:30am
As expected, all the main indecis gapped down overnight, the technical picture ( I posted this thread 1 hour before the first news release of the oil attacks ) plus the Saudi oil attack made this almost inevitable. News events we have no control over, but as noted above, the indications that this week might see the end of the recent bull run were fairly strong, so we'll see if this turn south can continue. Presently I have the Dow Jones sitting on its 30m 200ema support.
  • #6
  • Sep 16, 2019 6:57am Sep 16, 2019 6:57am
It's looking like the Dow may lift before it goes down again ( if it goes down again today ) so I'm looking at around 27,187 for potential resistance if it gets back up there, as this is the 61.8% retrace from Friday's high, which is sitting right on top of the 30m 100sma. Today's pivot levels coming in a few minutes.
  • #7
  • Sep 16, 2019 7:10am Sep 16, 2019 7:10am
Quoting cat
It's looking like the Dow may lift before it goes down again ( if it goes down again today ) so I'm looking at around 27,187 for potential resistance if it gets back up there, as this is the 61.8% retrace from Friday's high, which is sitting right on top of the 30m 100sma. Today's pivot levels coming in a few minutes.
I would not expect anything but an up move until the FOMC on Wednesday. And even then, I would expect the trend to test the all time highs and probably make new ones. Just my opinion, the bulls don't want to leave the party and however absurd it may seem in terms of fundamentals, PA is and remains very bullish if you look at weekly/monthly. The US does believe it is isolated from the turmoils of the external world. Europe in recession? Biggest oil shortage in decades? Brexit? They don't care, until the realize they should have. But now is not the time. Soon maybe, but not now.
  • #8
  • Sep 16, 2019 7:20am Sep 16, 2019 7:20am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I would not expect anything but an up move until the FOMC on Wednesday. And even then, I would expect the trend to test the all time highs and probably make new ones. Just my opinion, the bulls don't want to leave the party and however absurd it may seem in terms of fundamentals, PA is and remains very bullish if you look at weekly/monthly. The US does believe it is isolated from the turmoils of the external world. Europe in recession? Biggest oil shortage in decades? Brexit? They don't care, until the realize they should have. But now is...
Cheers darko, you may well be right.

For today, my pivots are -

CP @ 229
R1 @ 282
R2 @ 359
S1 @ 153
S2 @ 101
S3 @ 025

As noted above, I think a push up to 187 or so is a good possibility today, and higher if the bulls really get hold of it, to the central pivot which sits on top of the 76.4% retrace fib. The highest level I would have today if Dow rallies strongly is R1. To the downside, this 30m 200ema support has to break before it's worth plotting further support levels.
  • #9
  • Sep 16, 2019 7:44am Sep 16, 2019 7:44am
Quoting cat
{quote} Cheers darko, you may well be right. For today, my pivots are - CP @ 229 R1 @ 282 R2 @ 359 S1 @ 153 S2 @ 101 S3 @ 025 As noted above, I think a push up to 187 or so is a good possibility today, and higher if the bulls really get hold of it, to the central pivot which sits on top of the 76.4% retrace fib. The highest level I would have today if Dow rallies strongly is R1. To the downside, this 30m 200ema support has to break before it's worth plotting further support levels.
I don't do pivots, just PASR, so I wish you the best in your trades with your tools.
As for me, I will pay close attention to 215 and 315 areas as they are actual price points rather than levels coming from averages, but there are as many ways to trade than there are traders, anything is acceptable even though some seem to work better than others in the long run.
Trade safe
  • #10
  • Sep 16, 2019 8:06am Sep 16, 2019 8:06am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I don't do pivots, just PASR, so I wish you the best in your trades with your tools. As for me, I will pay close attention to 215 and 315 areas as they are actual price points rather than levels coming from averages, but there are as many ways to trade than there are traders, anything is acceptable even though some seem to work better than others in the long run. Trade safe
Not sure I know what ' do pivots ' means. For me, I use them to help determine S@R, as combined with other indicators they can be very useful, for example, when a certain pivot level combines with a key moving average, fib level or trend line. Always best to know where they are I find.
  • #11
  • Sep 17, 2019 6:44am Sep 17, 2019 6:44am
EWI has the most bearish outlook for the DJI.

Sixer

Edit:
And a bearish outlook for the German DAX
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #12
  • Sep 17, 2019 6:59am Sep 17, 2019 6:59am
And finally: The correct outlook for the DJI based on the Long Term Delta cycles.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW-DJI(D)-16.9.19.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #13
  • Sep 17, 2019 10:24pm Sep 17, 2019 10:24pm
Quoting cat
My charts indicate the strong possibility of some pretty big down moves imminently on the big US and Euro indecis, similar to the falls we saw at the end of 2018. There could be a bit more up movement first, or as early as next week prices could begin to tumble, so perhaps 4,000 pips on Dow/S&P, and 1000 on Dax could be the sort of drop we see over the next few weeks or so. Nothing is ever certain in this game obviously, so this is just a pointer to what I see as a good possibility, especially right now with prices riding high after a sustained...
Thank you!
  • #14
  • Edited 1:28am Sep 18, 2019 12:56am | Edited 1:28am
DJI with downside pressure.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DJI-17.9.19.jpeg Size: 114 KB
  • #15
  • Sep 18, 2019 9:55am Sep 18, 2019 9:55am
Quoting wealthyqueen
{quote} Thank you!
You're very welcome!
  • #16
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:50pm Sep 18, 2019 2:50pm
We are going to new highs... Don't fight the Fed
  • #17
  • Sep 19, 2019 9:50am Sep 19, 2019 9:50am
Intra-day resistance above the all time high on the Dow, should it break above it, I have around 27,370, which may be hit today or tomorrow if the price rises further. Should it break this level conclusively , then a potentially very important resistance level I have at or around 28,000 should it get that high. I'll post a reminder if 28,000 is hit, because that for me is an important one, and the very last resistance level I have before the price enters into clear water on its way to 29,000 and perhaps above.
  • #18
  • Sep 19, 2019 5:28pm Sep 19, 2019 5:28pm
Quoting cat
Intra-day resistance above the all time high on the Dow, should it break above it, I have around 27,370, which may be hit today or tomorrow if the price rises further. Should it break this level conclusively , then a potentially very important resistance level I have at or around 28,000 should it get that high. I'll post a reminder if 28,000 is hit, because that for me is an important one, and the very last resistance level I have before the price enters into clear water on its way to 29,000 and perhaps above.
I will start being short from 27800 if intraday PA is encouraging. Until then, I favor the long side
  • #19
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:50am Sep 20, 2019 1:50am
Quoting darko2010
We are going to new highs... Don't fight the Fed
fed can't fight truth for too long.. anyhow.. let's see..

Hope you all well
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #20
  • Sep 21, 2019 7:46am Sep 21, 2019 7:46am
Just look at those weekly candles on the big indecis - shooting star on Dow, S&P 500, and doji on Dax, all at key resistance levels.

I called the market turnaround last weekend, before news of the Saudi oil strike was released, and next week is looking potentially like this past week was just the beginning of some pretty big selling across the board.

Note the word ' potentially ', because nothing is ever certain.

Stay tuned!
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