WTI Crude Oil Trading | Page 189 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

WTI/USD

Similar Threads

Reliable broker for Crude Oil trading 20 replies

making money intraday CL/WTI/OIL - no overnight holds 13 replies

WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model) 634 replies

Trading Oil WTI to get back all! 18 replies

Hedge WTI and Brent Oil 1 reply

Attachments: WTI Crude Oil Trading
Exit Attachments

WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #3,761
  • Sep 14, 2019 2:09pm Sep 14, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Still waiting for the big short this fake economy has lasted to long.
Indeed. Panic Day is out there somewhere.

The response to the attack is likely to kick oil up to such levels that it could be followed by big short plays.

For the opening:
- oil up
- gold up
- equities down.

Maybe.
  • #3,762
  • Sep 14, 2019 2:26pm Sep 14, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting timingchain
foxnews.com The world's largest oil processing facility and a nearby oil field in Saudi Arabia were set ablaze early Saturday morning after reported drone attacks by Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels. The Interior Ministry was quoted by state-run media as saying the fires at the Abqaiq oil processing facility in Buqyaq and the nearby Khurais oil field operated by Saudi Aramco were “targeted by drones.” David Stockman I remember in the spring of 2008 they were still talking about the Goldilocks economy. And in November 2008, they were talking about the...
In the forecast I saw on YouTube talking about oil opening next week in a gap up , because of the situation in Saudi Arabia.
good for me
yes yes yes
  • #3,763
  • Sep 14, 2019 3:14pm Sep 14, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} In the forecast I saw on YouTube talking about oil opening next week in a gap up , because of the situation in Saudi Arabia. good for me
Monty, noticed your longs, hope it goes the right way, your forecasts are well forward looking, mine on the other hand are general without the bit in between, I have circled the rejection on the weekly but this could be negated with recent events, my fear is, all of the events of past could not get this over any winning line, if it does, one could only wonder what next? good luck for next week, D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil55.png Size: 30 KB
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,764
  • Sep 14, 2019 5:37pm Sep 14, 2019 5:37pm
Oh wow SUPER GAP on the way!!

My guess is we open at $65.
  • #3,765
  • Sep 14, 2019 8:15pm Sep 14, 2019 8:15pm
Hmmm... something fishy ; )─

Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked these so-called oil facilities?

Key points before the said drone strikes:

─ Saudi Arabia wanted Oil price to reach at least $80+ per Barrel to balance their 2019 budget and to fund their “structural reforms,” largely referring to the Vision 2030 plan. However, they've been producing and stocking up Oil (stocking up due to upcoming cold/winter season) in record numbers for a couple of months.

─ Little that they know about... Despite US embargo... Iran is still very actively reacting to a high Oil demand in Asia, particularly China.

From Iran, huge vessels that are digitally registered empty left the port but being tracked via satellite imagery. However, they turned-off their identification system during their voyage. And upon arriving at Strait of Singapore, it simply announced itself or magically appeared as an Oil Tanker with at least 1 million barrels of Oil... After that, it travels to the Philippine waters such as, around Panay Island (outside international waters to achieve digital detection darkness). The Chinese military ships were guarding or escorting the sophisticated ship-to-ship transfer of Oil. Around that time or after the U.S. reported that Chinese Military ships were detected inside the Philippine waters and took a port call by the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group in the Philippines.

─ The United States had adjusted target to become a net energy exporter by 2022... However, recent statements from Trump, they've already achieved that...But this kind of things (China importing Oil from Iran) won't help to maintain such status.

─ Weekly US Oil Drill data: The fourth week in a row of fewer rigs for oil drillers (intentionally slowed down as they've reached their target oil reserves or they've reached the peak?)... and still the oil price in a downward trajectory.

─ Late last year, Trump had a speech in UN wherein he criticized OPEC.countries with regards to over-priced Oil... Then, a few days later, the Oil peaked around 77 US$ per barrel and price started to go down.


Crude Oil: Seasonality
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil_seasonality.png Size: 106 KB
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #3,766
  • Sep 14, 2019 11:38pm Sep 14, 2019 11:38pm
Wow, huge news out of Saudi Arabia this weekend. Just for reference, the CME has no "limit up" for the WTI (CL) contract. There's a 7% price limit on heating oil (HO) and nat gas (NG).
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #3,767
  • Sep 14, 2019 11:44pm Sep 14, 2019 11:44pm
Quoting Goat
Oh wow SUPER GAP on the way!! My guess is we open at $65.
Yep, it's going to be pretty epic. Who knows what kind of liquidity there will be at the open. Anyone short is going to have to cover at whatever price they can... A gap this big will cause a lot of margin calls resulting in further upside pressure.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #3,768
  • Sep 15, 2019 12:09am Sep 15, 2019 12:09am
Now I am realy excited , after seeing enthusiastic reactions here. In the forecast where they talked about the gap up, then they threw a number like 57, but now someone here said 65. I'm invested in oil at $ 250 per point, and my entry rate was around $ 55.70 and the closing rate was $ 54.84 so I'm currently at $ 250 loss. Opening in Area 57 will give me a net profit of $ 320. And if it is higher than that, then it can already become a crazy trade, at least on my scale
yes yes yes
  • #3,769
  • Sep 15, 2019 12:28am Sep 15, 2019 12:28am
Quoting Moty
Now I am realy excited , after seeing enthusiastic reactions here. In the forecast where they talked about the gap up, then they threw a number like 57, but now someone here said 65. I'm invested in oil at $ 250 per point, and my entry rate was around $ 55.70 and the closing rate was $ 54.84 so I'm currently at $ 250 loss. Opening in Area 57 will give me a net profit of $ 320. And if it is higher than that, then it can already become a crazy trade, at least on my scale
Congratulations Moty, you're about to be the beneficiary of some major tail-risk.

I'm trying to get some idea of where WTI will open, but there's not much historical precedent. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 might be somewhat comparable, here's what oil did then:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 100 KB


Oil went from ~21.50 to ~29.00 over a few days for about a 35% gain. A comparable move now would take oil to about 74... The world has changed a lot over 30 years though so it's really impossible to know what's in store at the open.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #3,770
  • Sep 15, 2019 1:30am Sep 15, 2019 1:30am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Congratulations Moty, you're about to be the beneficiary of some major tail-risk. I'm trying to get some idea of where WTI will open, but there's not much historical precedent. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 might be somewhat comparable, here's what oil did then: {image} Oil went from ~21.50 to ~29.00 over a few days for about a 35% gain. A comparable move now would take oil to about 74... The world has changed a lot over 30 years though so it's really impossible to know what's in store at the open.
Thanks for your great effort,most appropriate.
I have tp set in ,so i probably will get out automatically with something like 200$ profit, and then wait for the closing of the gap , for re entry
yes yes yes
  • #3,771
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:19am Sep 15, 2019 4:19am
Quoting v2vboni
Hmmm... something fishy ; )─ Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked these so-called oil facilities? Key points before the said drone strikes: ─ Saudi Arabia wanted Oil price to reach at least $80+ per Barrel to balance their 2019 budget and to fund their “structural reforms,” largely referring to the Vision 2030 plan...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aramco.png Size: 74 KB

source: zerohedge.com
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #3,772
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:59am Sep 15, 2019 4:59am
Saudi's are suppliers of %10 of the world oil production. It is said that this incident will cut their production in half. So mathematically price should gap up by %5 of the friday's close. Anything above that should be treated as speculative, even pump and dump....
Good Luck.....
  • #3,773
  • Sep 15, 2019 5:00am Sep 15, 2019 5:00am
Quoting joemilly
Discussion about crude oil sound interesting here .......i just switched off from currency trading to crude oil since december last year...since then i found out crude oil is more fun rather than ccy...lets discuss here as im still learning abt the behaviour of crude oil.....
Am at a loss of 39$ @55.20. With a point to a dollar. I pray and speculate it jumps to 58 at least. I will be in for some good bucks. Patiently waiting still
  • #3,774
  • Sep 15, 2019 5:30am Sep 15, 2019 5:30am
Quoting GoldTheHun
Saudi's are suppliers of %10 of the world oil production. It is said that this incident will cut their production in half. So mathematically price should gap up by %5 of the friday's close. Anything above that should be treated as speculative, even pump and dump.... Good Luck.....
I will be happy with that.
yes yes yes
  • #3,775
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:12am Sep 15, 2019 11:12am
Quoting GoldTheHun
Saudi's are suppliers of %10 of the world oil production. It is said that this incident will cut their production in half. So mathematically price should gap up by %5 of the friday's close. Anything above that should be treated as speculative, even pump and dump.... Good Luck.....
Wow, crazy development.. Events such as this can sure crush previous price (prediction) models... I am very curious, to say the least, how this might affect the markets.. I wonder how much of that or similar incidents is/were already price-in, as the priced-in risk/exposure (because many expected something to happen in the middle east, just weren't sure where/when)... My previous "south views" are now on hold due to this "breaking news"... Will see what the market say in the next week.. We might get a clue even on Monday morning, but till the end of the week, we might see if there would seriously be any radical changes in trend...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,776
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:24am Sep 15, 2019 11:24am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} ... Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 might be somewhat comparable, here's what oil did then: {image} Oil went from ~21.50 to ~29.00 over a few days for about a 35% gain. A comparable move now would take oil to about 74... The world has changed a lot over 30 years though so it's really impossible to know what's in store at the open.
This might prove to be the most useful guide to the next few days/weeks/months. Really good research!
  • #3,777
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:28am Sep 15, 2019 11:28am
Quoting Moty
Now I am realy excited , after seeing enthusiastic reactions here. In the forecast where they talked about the gap up, then they threw a number like 57, but now someone here said 65. I'm invested in oil at $ 250 per point, and my entry rate was around $ 55.70 and the closing rate was $ 54.84 so I'm currently at $ 250 loss. Opening in Area 57 will give me a net profit of $ 320. And if it is higher than that, then it can already become a crazy trade, at least on my scale
Hi, Moty, is 57 on WTI? What about BRENT?

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #3,778
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:39am Sep 15, 2019 11:39am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Hi, Moty, is 57 on WTI? What about BRENT? Best D.P.
yes , 57 is the price on the wti .
i don't realy know how does it will effect the brent oil .i am new in this area of oil trading
yes yes yes
  • #3,779
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:44am Sep 15, 2019 11:44am
Quoting Moty
{quote} yes , 57 is the price on the wti . i don't realy know how does it will effect the brent oil .i am new in this area of oil trading
Should be a spike this week.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #3,780
  • Sep 15, 2019 2:11pm Sep 15, 2019 2:11pm
Quoting timingchain
{quote} This might prove to be the most useful guide to the next few days/weeks/months. Really good research!
Thanks, hopefully it's helpful.

Quoting Moty
{quote} Thanks for your great effort,most appropriate. I have tp set in ,so i probably will get out automatically with something like 200$ profit, and then wait for the closing of the gap , for re entry
You're welcome.

Good call on putting in a TP. If I were in your shoes, I'd put in a really high limit order just in case there's a huge spike at the open while the market is finding liquidity. Without liquidity and without a circuit breaker there really no limit on how high the price could potentially go in the first minute of trading. I can't predict whether we'll get that big spike or not, but its good to be in a position to take advantage of it if it does.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
6 traders viewing now