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Journal of a Struggling Trader like You - I am pannet1

  • #281
  • Edited 2:10pm Sep 4, 2019 1:24pm | Edited 2:10pm
Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 I used to trade stocks, my experience was not good, what about trading your exchange index and sectors? if I were to have to trade stocks again I would only trade the indexes and the sectors, not an individual stock ever again, the lower the value of the stock the worse they are to trade in my experience, please be careful doing this, at the end of the day it is your choice just saying about my experience of it. You are correct I believe that whatever you trade it should be similar to trading currencies from a t/a point of view and yes...
thanks for the warning, Phil.

your experience with stock may not be good but that could be sometime in the past. i think now you can play it totally well in stocks with your present FOREX experience.

In forex, with lesser account size, one needs to end up with bucket shops. i have to fight the market place as well as the broker. with stocks atleast i need to fight only one, the counterparty.

though $1-$2 seems to be low, with our currency this roughly translates to INR 100 - INR 200. these stocks will be more liquid. the exchange includes the best of the best as its index constituents and the contenders ( in the future section). i am selecting those stocks that have future section because they don't have the circuit limit (upper and lower). so they can theoretically go to any price.

there is something called penny stocks in the range of INR 1 - 10, which are really pump and dump and are dangerous like you said. you also don't get leverage for them from the broker and could go to 0 anytime. most of the stocks have a tendency to return to mean, this i am planning to take advantage of. For us it need not even have to return to mean say we bought 1x on the top ... buy the 48x at the bottom and if it even gives a bounce, i will be home.

this is buy only strategy and its crucial to buy .. when the price is trading above the open line.

EDIT: Finally spotted one loss trade

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  • #282
  • Sep 5, 2019 12:48am Sep 5, 2019 12:48am
Hi pannet1

No worries my friend, so long as you know what you are doing/taking on by trading individual stocks.

Hope you do not mind I have marked your chart up with what I see, of course now the action is there is easier to do than on the fly (in live action), but marking the highs and lows will help you see the possible changes in p/a.

Regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #283
  • Sep 6, 2019 9:51am Sep 6, 2019 9:51am
Dearest Phil,
my jaw literally dropped after seeing the beautiful edits you posted.

BIG TAKEAWAY: thanks for showing at my face that MA (indicator) is lagging.
should i buy on the green arrows and sell on the red arrows. is that one purpose of drawing it.

one more thing the run down and price actions till the break down below the open line are considered to be retracement. i could use it to to reduce some risk (take some loss), then buy as per the lots marked, on the break above. also the bear power bar happened the next day, otherwise may be we could have escaped with a no loss or breakeven on the spike up.

thank you ! thank you so much for your wonderful insights. indebted to you. God bless

ps: i worked extensively again on the chart with new set of rules to present it to you .. but lost it before i could save it. bad luck :-(

Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 No worries my friend, so long as you know what you are doing/taking on by trading individual stocks. Hope you do not mind I have marked your chart up with what I see, of course now the action is there is easier to do than on the fly (in live action), but marking the highs and lows will help you see the possible changes in p/a. Regards Phil. {image}
  • #284
  • Sep 7, 2019 1:23am Sep 7, 2019 1:23am
Hi pannet1

Yes, fti as said many times all indicators are lagging, you should buy or sell when you understand what the price action is possibly telling you, there is no holy grail even reading price action has its floors and can change quickly but for me it is the most reliable way I have ever found to get some direction from the market.

As I said above marking the highs and lows will help you see the moves clearer, but that is not all there is to it you must understand a good basis in hips and lops blended with t/a such dow theory, Elliot ect (also understanding newton’s law and how to apply it helps) is what is needed as a knowledge foundation for it to be affective and allow you try to take a ‘read’, what the moves mean and what may of drove them, to me there really is no time frame, these things are our man made way of measuring something, the highs and lows show you the movement without time involved in the conventional sense as we know it, for me to answer your questions I would need a broader look at the instrument and market you are trading in, no one chart or time reference can tell you what you need to know when trying to read p/a and t/a, also you need to take into account any news and fundamentals, some people say the news is written into the p/a, I am not a believer in this, sure sometimes it will be going in the correct direction when news hits but other times it will not, with stocks the main move is often after the open or when news is due, if you carry overnight you have extreme risk of some news majorly going against you at the open with a big gap upon open, no stop loss will save you, a stop or any order you place is just a trigger to buy/sell at the first best available price once your level has been triggered, now if there is a gap or fast move that could be hundreds of pips away from your stop or order that you placed.

My friend you are not indebted to me at all, I was helped so I am doing what little I can to pay it back out of respect for what our friend fti asked of us for learning from him.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #285
  • Edited Sep 13, 2019 4:12am Sep 12, 2019 11:49am | Edited Sep 13, 2019 4:12am
Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 Yes, fti as said many times all indicators are lagging, you should buy or sell when you understand what the price action is possibly telling you, there is no holy grail even reading price action has its floors and can change quickly but for me it is the most reliable way I have ever found to get some direction from the market. As I said above marking the highs and lows will help you see the moves clearer, but that is not all there is to it you must understand a good basis in hips and lops blended with t/a such dow theory, Elliot ect (also...
it just occurred to me that chief says not have a bias from the higher time frame because we will have a tendency to be on the wrong side when the reversal happens. however, even for intraday day trading, it is important to see the bigger picture on where we are trading currently to find out if we are continuation of the trend or reversal. though this sounds contrary, the bottom line is for us to be in the now moment.

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assuming we were in a down trend (recent price is coming from left above) ... assuming because, i dont have that info for real. can we can conclude (for NOW) that the reversal had started till the current price did not trade below "C". if a interim low is formed below "E" but above "C", then the reversal is still valid.

already the pivot high "D" marked above is broken and a new high is formed. So should we re-mark that to a new high and consider those that formed after "D" as the part of a current wave. where would you BUY or SELL and where would you exit.

i think this is whole thing separates you (the winner) and rest of us (loosers).
  • #286
  • Sep 13, 2019 1:41am Sep 13, 2019 1:41am
Hi pannet1

I think you are sort of getting it but you are (for me at least) trying to over complicate it by adding those wave letters and trying to make everything make sense from that using those rigid letters, that is not how the market works or we would all be multi-billionaires, the market is alive with all the collective emotions of all the traders involved at that time, btw I think you labelled the move incorrectly (but I may wrong? It has been a while since I labelled up any waves). the way I see it, the NOW picture, is the current price related to where we are in the current move, to see this you need to understand and map the current status of where we are on that map, moves within moves trends within trends, the actual time frames are man made rubbish, we can use them though but we need to remove their time structure, I have recently shown this in my place as I try to document the ‘read’ part of my journal, look at the moves within moves to get clues of where are in the now time and this will give you clues to how you should be trading NOW, the scouts will test your thoughts for you and let you know about your timing and if you may be correct in your thinking of reading the clues.

Look at the basis of dow theory and break it down to its core of trend definition.

I will show you below where the trends are in your chart, but for this to be of any relevant use you need the bigger picture and smaller picture to be blended together for better NOW outlook clue of what the market is doing NOW. I am sorry but I do not know how clearer I can make it, every move is different but similar!.

regards

Phil.

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  • #287
  • Sep 13, 2019 4:21am Sep 13, 2019 4:21am
Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 I think you are sort of getting it but you are (for me at least) trying to over complicate it by adding those wave letters and trying to make everything make sense from that using those rigid letters, that is not how the market works or we would all be multi-billionaires, the market is alive with all the collective emotions of all the traders involved at that time, btw I think you labelled the move incorrectly (but I may wrong? It has been a while since I labelled up any waves). the way I see it, the NOW picture, is the current price...
i am sorry my friend, i did not mean to say that you have not made yourself clear. i am just trying to get more insights because of the complexity of the market. i see that you don't want me get into any form of rigidity.
  • #288
  • Sep 13, 2019 4:53am Sep 13, 2019 4:53am
Hi pannet1

Nothing to be sorry for my friend, I was just merely saying that I cannot think of another way to try to explain myself, I cannot use some of my normal fx related stuff as you are tied to what your country will let you trade. As I say ask what you want and if I can I will answer with whatever I know.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #289
  • Sep 28, 2019 1:05pm Sep 28, 2019 1:05pm
hi phil,

i tried to find a very passive way of trading on the daily chart. the MO changes depending on where we are from our sigma (or Average Price). Below are the results.

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when we are buying and its trending, we seem to do well. (MO normal fibo sequence of pyramiding, we also close a trade if it is profitable on the next day and we buy during pull backs above MA 12).

when we are selling and its in a downtrend, find it very hard to keep up with the Average Trade Price (MO normal fib sequence but we fall back to the previous fibo when winning and increment to next fibo when loosing).

instrument is ETF (following Index).
  • #290
  • Oct 4, 2019 6:09am Oct 4, 2019 6:09am
Hi Pannet1,

How are you doing.

I am new to TAF so much to learn and unlearn.

Regards,
Ant
  • #291
  • Oct 4, 2019 6:16am Oct 4, 2019 6:16am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} hi alexandria, thank you for your kind attention. its futile to dream of attacks when what i have is mostly rescues. but here is an attempt. same chart. in an uptrend ... whenever there is an entry ... a pivot is formed below ... if this is broken ... then the NOW needs to re-aligned for rescue or scale out. then this becomes simple to begin with. {image}
I was also doing this 2 weeks back. But now i am working on form reading so that i should be attacking most of the time and minimum rescue. As FTI said, Attack is bread and butter, rescue is for survival. We can not depend upon survival trading rather focus on bread and butter. I am no one to write anything, but i pls do not consider anything on face value.

TAF thread everything. I am reading it again for 5th time from start (first 300 pages)

Regards,
Ant
  • #292
  • Oct 7, 2019 4:10am Oct 7, 2019 4:10am
Quoting antmindset
Hi Pannet1, How are you doing. I am new to TAF so much to learn and unlearn. Regards, Ant
hi antmindset,

you are more than welcome to post here. our minds are hard. the more you trade the more hard it becomes. maintaining a child like learning mindset is very difficult.
  • #293
  • Oct 7, 2019 4:12am Oct 7, 2019 4:12am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} I was also doing this 2 weeks back. But now i am working on form reading so that i should be attacking most of the time and minimum rescue. As FTI said, Attack is bread and butter, rescue is for survival. We can not depend upon survival trading rather focus on bread and butter. I am no one to write anything, but i pls do not consider anything on face value. TAF thread everything. I am reading it again for 5th time from start (first 300 pages) Regards, Ant
the tricky part is i dont have the choice to attack always because i dont know where the market is heading. also i realise now that i need to rescue all trades.
  • #294
  • Nov 2, 2019 6:32pm Nov 2, 2019 6:32pm
master stroke

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...58#post9071258
  • #295
  • Dec 17, 2019 4:01am Dec 17, 2019 4:01am
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  • #296
  • Feb 2, 2020 2:50am Feb 2, 2020 2:50am
hi phil,

i was wondering whether its good to trade the breakout or to trade the counter trend. pictures that show the same thing with these two perspectives.

aa. breakout
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bb. countertrend
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the change in direction (1 and A) can always be traded with a scout and pyramid can be done once we become comfortable. it is same for both the methods in the picture. the MM and taking out some risk on each instance is not shown in the picture. also the break out method provided only 6 opportunities with worst pricing whilst the counter trend method provided us with 12 opportunities with better pricing. however the counter trend method will need more risk taking ability because we may need to add positions till the next trend change.


what are your observations and advise on this.
  • #297
  • Feb 3, 2020 3:04am Feb 3, 2020 3:04am
Hi pannet1

with MM we have to balance the risk with book size against an unexpected deep run against us, these deep runs can quickly kill the book if we do not have a good solid MM strategy to allow for the unexpected, to me it is far better to scale with the bigger trend in the time frames above, this puts the odds in our favour of survival when things go not as we expected, at the same time we must also have a good understanding of price action and learn to recognise when price may be at/near a top/bottom, counter trades are risky and so long as you know that you are trading into a counter trend trade and have strategies to deal with it when it goes against you then I see nothing wrong in taking advantage of trading both with and against the main trend, it is a hard thing to do though and take a lot of experience to allow you to be able to do this as you are messing with the minds emotions by holding two conflicting beliefs at the same time, it can be done but it is a big challenge for us.. what is best to do?? what you know and have practised with that has proven over a long period of time to be successful for you, and I mean you, we are all different in our personalities and so that make us all emotionally different as well, what may disturb one person will be acceptable to another, trading for each individual is like this, that is why I and others say what works for me may not be suitable for you, best way to get answers to the types of question you have asked here is to practice it in demo for a long time to see and prove to your own mind what works for you or not. I hope I have answered your question as best as I can, it is very hard to tell another what are correct entries and strategies for them, there is base/foundation that fti has given us and we need to build on that something that is suited to us as an individual.

Just a side note on P/A what you have marked is not a trend change, a trend change (in this case) requires a new high (which you have marked as the change), the retrace needs to make a high or double bottom, the price must convincingly take out the first new high (the one you marked).

Good luck my friend

regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #298
  • Feb 4, 2020 10:26pm Feb 4, 2020 10:26pm
Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 with MM we have to balance the risk with book size against an unexpected deep run against us, these deep runs can quickly kill the book if we do not have a good solid MM strategy to allow for the unexpected, to me it is far better to scale with the bigger trend in the time frames above, this puts the odds in our favour of survival when things go not as we expected, at the same time we must also have a good understanding of price action and learn to recognise when price may be at/near a top/bottom, counter trades are risky and so long...
dear phil,

thanks for your wise advisements as usual. to protect from the deep runs, there are two things

1) my lot sizes are micro (or smallest) fibo sequences
2) the boundaries are rigid and well defined, so i bail out on rubber band killings.

basically, i am trying to add position (during the rest) and take some risk out (during the next pump). if the pump did not happen after the rest, we add one more position (the next fibo).

this is producing good result for the past few days, i will test it out for some more time, till i get satisfactory result, in the long run.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pan...LAEQ5N3IsZWz45

the trend change you indicated are very nimble. for me they do not offer the scope to remain in the trend through the retracements. i hope it is OK.

note: i am in a big draw down due to scale up to bigger lot size resulting in loss of one year's profit.
  • #299
  • Feb 5, 2020 4:34am Feb 5, 2020 4:34am
Hi pannet1

quote.. 'basically, i am trying to add position (during the rest) and take some risk out (during the next pump). if the pump did not happen after the rest, we add one more position (the next fibo).'

yes my friend basically this a good thing to do.

sorry to hear about your DD, this happens to all of us, we all go through it, we trade well for ages 'ant style' building our nest and protecting then one mistake as we get a bit overconfident and bang we have a major set back, deep recoveries require a lot of patients and an unbiased read combined with good money management, it is a very hard thing to do...the waiting and watching for the right moment to strike.

good luck and i really hope you manage to sort it out.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #300
  • Feb 12, 2020 2:01pm Feb 12, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting phil13
Hi pannet1 quote.. 'basically, i am trying to add position (during the rest) and take some risk out (during the next pump). if the pump did not happen after the rest, we add one more position (the next fibo).' yes my friend basically this a good thing to do. sorry to hear about your DD, this happens to all of us, we all go through it, we trade well for ages 'ant style' building our nest and protecting then one mistake as we get a bit overconfident and bang we have a major set back, deep recoveries require a lot of patients and an unbiased read combined...
very few people know me on this earth, even few as a trader and can count the ones that wish me good luck. thank you my friend. i wanted to mediate on this feeling for sometime and write a beautiful thank you to you. i have many emotions to share with you but it is very difficult to be eloquent my friend. so i failed, again with lack of words.

a BIG thank still looks so inadequate .

note: i was working on a an expert to quickly test if there is some form of edge in this kind of rigidity and the EA closed all the open positions by mistake thus my equity and balance is now one and i have to take the big DD, still not giving up.
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