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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #4,501
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:20am Sep 9, 2019 6:20am
Take a look at this simple spreadsheet. It does all the calculations for me to take trades.

I have highlighted blue for the explanation of what is going on here.

In B9 we see a 5% risk of this account is $21.10

In F3 we see a 1/6th entry is 0.16 lots which returns me $2.28 per pip.

In E14 we see this is pretty close to my 5% max risk and is 9 pips to the stop.

If I only get these trades on, that is to say 1st entries only then I3 tells me I need to score 185.38 pips to double the account.

If I can get all three trades on then I only need 30.9 pips and if I get more then the return is massive compared to the risk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 43 KB
  • #4,502
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:25am Sep 9, 2019 6:25am
Here I have just added 1K to the account sum and everything updates accordingly.

The account may wax and wane but the losses are small compared to the wins.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #4,503
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:27am Sep 9, 2019 6:27am
Quoting Nala66
Here I have just added 1K to the account sum and everything updates accordingly. The account may wax and wane but the losses are small compared to the wins. {image}
So coolz, yeah yeah
  • #4,504
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:45am Sep 9, 2019 6:45am
Let's take that account figure of $1422 and assume we get FIVE losses in a row at about 5% each.

1) 1422 - 5% = $1350
2) 1350 - 5% = $1283
3) 1283 - 5% = $1218
4) 1218 - 5% = $1157
5) 1157 - 5% = $1099
6) Winner 1099 x 2 = $2198

So as you can see it takes a lot of losses to have any effect on us, not forgetting that we can get several wins in a row also.
  • #4,505
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:55am Sep 9, 2019 6:55am
Its all about the planning...

Timing
Signal
Money man entries.
Target

Rinse and repeat daily.

If the day is bad and you only get say 50% of the target then it doesn't matter because this is added to the next day.

Never add to a losing position because those 5% can very quickly wipe out your account or at best make a huge hole in it.

5% is easy to recover so why make things more difficult for yourself by compounding the loss.

At some point you will reach a level of daily profit you are happy with so this becomes your daily target. Losses can then be added to your daily target to maintain consistency.
  • #4,506
  • Sep 9, 2019 7:39am Sep 9, 2019 7:39am
The 4 hour is nearly time up and is holding just out of trouble...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 49 KB
  • #4,507
  • Sep 9, 2019 12:19pm Sep 9, 2019 12:19pm
posible divergencia en h4?
  • #4,508
  • Sep 9, 2019 12:22pm Sep 9, 2019 12:22pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.png Size: 82 KB
  • #4,509
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:54pm Sep 9, 2019 3:54pm
Quoting javipenjamo
{image}

Hello Sir/Madam, welcome new member.
Your chart does not look like a setup we trade here, sorry. You sold GU because you saw something on H4 that reminds you to the word divergence? If this is a demo account, okay then. If you do this with real money then I think you are brave. Do you have any SL in place?
If you didn't do it already, just start with post #1 and work yourself through the thread until you get the hang of it. It's sure worth the time investment!
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,510
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:28pm Sep 9, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting Nala66
Take a look at this simple spreadsheet. It does all the calculations for me to take trades. I have highlighted blue for the explanation of what is going on here. In B9 we see a 5% risk of this account is $21.10 In F3 we see a 1/6th entry is 0.16 lots which returns me $2.28 per pip. In E14 we see this is pretty close to my 5% max risk and is 9 pips to the stop. If I only get these trades on, that is to say 1st entries only then I3 tells me I need to score 185.38 pips to double the account. If I can get all three trades on then I only need 30.9 pips...
Hi Alan, this is brilliant - are you willing to share the spreadsheet please?

Cheers
  • #4,511
  • Sep 9, 2019 8:49pm Sep 9, 2019 8:49pm
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Hi Alan, this is brilliant - are you willing to share the spreadsheet please? Cheers
Me too. Please Alan, can you share your spreadsheet to all of us?
  • #4,512
  • Sep 10, 2019 4:45am Sep 10, 2019 4:45am
Quoting quangvision
{quote} Me too. Please Alan, can you share your spreadsheet to all of us?
Sorry guys I am late coming to the table today, so not traded.

Well its not actually my spreadsheet, I drew it up for a demo for you all.

Mine is just a little different in that I aim for the same target each day. So where it says account I have that as my daily target for example $1000 and it stays the same.

Anyway here it is and you can adapt it to suit yourselves easily enough.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Money Management.xlsx   16 KB | 759 downloads
  • #4,513
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:03am Sep 10, 2019 5:03am
Also on that spreadsheet you see an item called Factor. This is the number I have to multiply my AUD with to convert to USD your conversion from your base currency may also be different.

Add to this the amount you pay for lots is also affected by the base rate of your account.

Anyway it is not hard to get it all set to suit you.

A quick way is to place a 10cent trade for ten minutes so you have something to work with for the numbers. ie 10cent trade costs xxxx, 10cent trade won/lost xxxx for whatever pips. Now you can find the value for 1 pip at 10cents or a micro lot.
  • #4,514
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:03am Sep 10, 2019 6:03am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Sorry guys I am late coming to the table today, so not traded. Well its not actually my spreadsheet, I drew it up for a demo for you all. Mine is just a little different in that I aim for the same target each day. So where it says account I have that as my daily target for example $1000 and it stays the same. Anyway here it is and you can adapt it to suit yourselves easily enough. {file}
Thank you ! Back in 10 days.
  • #4,515
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:51am Sep 10, 2019 6:51am
Quoting huskyboy
{quote} Thank you ! Back in 10 days.
Have a good break, should be my turn soon. The fish await my attention.
  • #4,516
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:21pm Sep 10, 2019 8:21pm
Quoting Jazz1964
{quote} Hello Sir/Madam, welcome new member. Your chart does not look like a setup we trade here, sorry. You sold GU because you saw something on H4 that reminds you to the word divergence? If this is a demo account, okay then. If you do this with real money then I think you are brave. Do you have any SL in place? If you didn't do it already, just start with post #1 and work yourself through the thread until you get the hang of it. It's sure worth the time investment!
Can I contact you via Skype?
  • #4,517
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:44pm Sep 10, 2019 8:44pm
Quoting Nala66
Here I have just added 1K to the account sum and everything updates accordingly. The account may wax and wane but the losses are small compared to the wins. {image}
Hi Alan, going on what you've said previously, the second entry is the riskiest, as it represents twice the risk of the first, but the third entry is about the same risk as the second due to the already accrued (unrealised) profit from the first two entries.

In light of that, assuming a 10-pip SL, we should be looking to risk 2.5% on the first entry and 5% on the second (with SL moved to BE on the first) so that our risk is never greater than 5%.

That would be (approx) a 5-pip SL according to the spreadsheet images you posted.

Is that a correct interpretation?

Cheers
  • #4,518
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:52pm Sep 10, 2019 9:52pm
Quoting quangvision
{quote} Me too. Please Alan, can you share your spreadsheet to all of us?
Hello quangvision!
Can I contact you via Skype, telegram, Zalo?
Thanks & Regard.
  • #4,519
  • Sep 11, 2019 12:52am Sep 11, 2019 12:52am
Quoting hugo0201
{quote} Can I contact you via Skype?
Your PM's are blocked, I could not reach you.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #4,520
  • Sep 11, 2019 1:08am Sep 11, 2019 1:08am
Quoting k1w1
{quote} Hi Alan, going on what you've said previously, the second entry is the riskiest, as it represents twice the risk of the first, but the third entry is about the same risk as the second due to the already accrued (unrealised) profit from the first two entries. In light of that, assuming a 10-pip SL, we should be looking to risk 2.5% on the first entry and 5% on the second (with SL moved to BE on the first) so that our risk is never greater than 5%. That would be (approx) a 5-pip SL according to the spreadsheet images you posted. Is that a...
These numbers are not written in stone but are more of a rough guide. It depends more on the price action as to where and when we can place additional trades. However having said that, I would not risk more than 5% on that first entry.
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