WTI Crude Oil Trading

The sun and a 'few' beers did you well

Thanks Li, just had that feeling it was becoming top heavy, volume another factor, around 70 pips skimD

WTI Crude Oil still looks south to me... not counting this (correction) week...

I don't see a bar formation that I associate with a reversal, but momentum has indeed decreased. I could have to get another Red Arrow out of my bag soon.

OIL BULLS TARGET THE $60 HANDLE, ALTHOUGH FRESH SUPPLY FEARS CAPPING THE ADVANCE
10 September 2019, 21:49

 

1. The oil markets fear further supply as demand worries ease.
2. The technical picture is mixed, although bulls in control and target the $60 handle.

The price of a barrel of oil has been meeting firm resistance and has dropped over 1% on Tuesday, falling from a high of $58.73 to a low of $57.30 as markets price out U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton.

The oil markets fear further supply following bets that the departure of U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton will ease tensions with Iran, potentially leading to the lifting of sanctions, which could put more oil on the market.

However, on the flip side, we have UAE oil minister Mazrouei saying that OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unconcerned with discussing deeper oil cuts and that there are hopes that compliance levels will rise.

Meanwhile, senior US energy officials are saying that Washington will continue to assert ‘maximum-pressure campaign’ on Iran and that the administration will monitor oil shipments and will consider designating identified parties buying Iranian oil.

Upside bias analysis
"As demand worries ease, the more positive fundamental narrative is able to shine - In addition, the appointment of a new energy minister in Saudi, who is reported to be looking for as much as a $25/bbl jump in prices to help maximize the value of the Aramco IPO and to increase revenue required to fund social spending, is also helping to give prices a lift,"
analysts at TD Securities argued.

WTI levels
WTI is holding up in neutral territories but is embarking on a run towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the July swing lows and highs with the 60 handle on the radar - 60.65 comes as the key target. To the downside, the 23.6% level at 53 the figure is critical.

I could be wrong, but I think we're trending sideways - down now for at least this week. We've met a long term resistance line I've been eyeing and I don't see cause for it to break above. Beyond that? Who knows, not counting my chickens that far out.

WTI declines further below 200-day EMA despite geopolitical tension, API draw
11 September 2019, 02:17

 

1. WTI pulls back from six-week high as 200-day EMA caps the upside.
2. Worrisome headlines form the Middle East, higher API draw fail to please energy buyers.
3. John Bolton’s resignation could ease the tension between the US and Arab countries.

WTI extends its U-turn from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) while declining to intra-day low of $57.70 during Asian morning on Wednesday.
The black gold fails to portray larger than the previous draw of inventory levels, -7.200M versus +0.401M prior, shown by the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly crude oil stock report for the US.

The energy benchmark also seems to ignore tensions surrounding Iran and Turkey. Iran recently warned the US to take back its troops off Afghanistan while Turkey is bearing the burden of its hard stand against the Trump administration. Also, the UK-Iran relations are getting worse with British news claiming the Arab nation selling oil from the much-debated ship “Dariya”. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia called for an emergency meeting for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Foreign Ministers in order to confront Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s comments that Iran has a secret nuclear facility and called for action against the Middle Eastern nation.

Supporting the move could be expectations of a bit less tough action against the Middle East after the departure of the US National Security Adviser John Bolton. Also, China’s purchase of oil from Iran is likely to raise barriers for the US-China trade talks, up for October, which in-turn could dampen the outlook for future oil demand.
The official US oil inventory numbers for the week ended on September 03, as to be revealed by the Crude Oil Stocks Change report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), will be on the traders’ radar for now while trade/political headlines will keep entertaining them during the meantime. The EIA stockpiles might recover from -4.771M previous draw to -2.6000M.

Technical Analysis
With its pullback from 200-day EMA, prices could retest a falling trend-line since late-April (previous resistance) around $57.00 while an upside clearance of the key moving average level of $57.92 needs to cross July-end high of $58.84 in order to aim for $60.00

Daily looks like it could take a small correction

I missed the opportunity to get out.



How are you fairing Nectarios?

Oil: Weakening macro backdrop – ANZ
11 September 2019, 11:32

According to ANZ analysts, crude oil market faces an important decision point, as OPEC and its allies meet to review OPEC’s oil production strategy and the weakening macro backdrop is further complicated by changes in Saudi Arabia’s ministerial responsibilities.

Key Quotes
“The surprise replacement of Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih, with Prince Abdulaziz al Salman raises questions about the kingdom’s oil policy. We don’t see the move as a prelude to significant change. The prince is a long time energy ministry official and has been part of the Saudi delegation that has set the OPEC production policy.”
“As OPEC and its allied producers (such as Russia) meet in Abu Dhabi, they face unprecedented uncertainty. In particular, tension between the US and Iran/Venezuela continues to impact the market.”
“We have subsequently reduced our forecast oil demand growth to 1mb/d this year (from 1.2mb/d). Even so, we see sizeable stock drawdowns in Q4.”
“With crude oil well below Saudi Arabia’s target of USD80/bbl, we feel they have no choice but to continue the current production cut agreement to help support current prices. However, the ability to push prices higher looks limited.”

Monthly OPEC report is out ( for downloads -> https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm)

Looks like it will return to 58.50 for now

Any observation or idea?

WTI H4 GCL.V19: very close to EMA20 at ~57.43. This is often a bounce or break situation at the EMA.

ATM, it looks like the EMA will hold, but it could easily breach the EMA for a substantial drop.

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change below forecasts (-2.6M) in September 6: Actual (-6.912M)

EIA: US crude oil stocks decreased by 6.9 million barrels
11 September 2019, 17:32

The weekly report published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that commercial crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 6.9 million barrels in the week ending September 6 compared to analysts estimate for a draw of 2.6 million barrels.
Key takeaways from the press release
"Refineries operated at 95.1% of their operable capacity last week."
"Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.4 million barrels per day."
"Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day."
"Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.6 million barrels per day, up by 0.4% from the same period last year."

I did not want to hold the positions during Crude Oil Inventories, too much volatility for me.
Close some with a loss and some with a small profit. Overall I was out of pocket.
I hope you close yours in profit soon.

Just crashed to 56...

Well that was fast.. was thinking about at least some temp/fake upspikes before the much expected news this week...
But yeah, OPEC really dived it even sooner. So the south is now confirmed... almost

To be honest, now I have a different view.

In short term, it may drop a little more, but in the long run, I expect to see a bullish move, if it doesn't drop below 55.

Hope to see more discussion from others