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The Swamp

  • #41,561
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:57am Sep 10, 2019 8:57am
With brexit,, London times may be less important.. Who gets the lion's share? I guess we will figure it out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #41,562
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:03am Sep 10, 2019 9:03am
Quoting Boulder
testing H1 downtrend stop at 1050.....50 mins to go... I added short here
bears held the stop at H1 close...
  • #41,563
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:19am Sep 10, 2019 9:19am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} bears held the stop at H1 close...
lc says usd bulls may show.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #41,564
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:24am Sep 10, 2019 9:24am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} bears held the stop at H1 close...

Boulder can you PM me where you get stop levels? I haven't been trading in past few days as I have been busy helping with Bahamian Hurricane evacuees but come ECB day I will be full time back at my desk.




Thank you

Jeff
I EAT PIPS
  • #41,565
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:32am Sep 10, 2019 9:32am
Quoting jshear
{quote} Boulder can you PM me where you get stop levels? I haven't been trading in past few days as I have been busy helping with Bahamian Hurricane evacuees but come ECB day I will be full time back at my desk. Thank you Jeff
I was wondering where you were last a couple of days... its nice of you helping hurricane victims.,
  • #41,566
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:42am Sep 10, 2019 9:42am
Quoting Mitiblotch
EU seems it wants to spike. A 1hr close above daily pivot means price may want higher. All my shorts were closed at 1034. I will just watch. Except if extreme spikes happen which I would love to sell.
That spike was a pure stop hunt. Lol... would love to see us break 1030 tonight, but I doubt bears have such power.
  • #41,567
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:58am Sep 10, 2019 9:58am
Quoting Boulder
testing H1 downtrend stop at 1050.....50 mins to go... I added short here
close here 1041, +9...
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  • #41,568
  • Sep 10, 2019 10:37am Sep 10, 2019 10:37am
a very long trading day today....a very good day too.....i don't think i will trade more .. .. I am going out now.....all I wait for eu TP 1031/33 or chf TP 9902/9809.. .
Good luck ...green pips to you all..
  • #41,569
  • Sep 10, 2019 1:32pm Sep 10, 2019 1:32pm
If AJ closes here I will close my trades... overbought or not its really gotten on my nerves
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  • #41,570
  • Sep 10, 2019 2:23pm Sep 10, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting jaylovin
If AJ closes here I will close my trades... overbought or not its really gotten on my nerves {image}
I'm also in this short since 73.5... are you closing them right now? I have SL 74.1
It's always part of a bigger plan
  • #41,571
  • Sep 10, 2019 3:54pm Sep 10, 2019 3:54pm
Quoting Mickster
{quote} I'm also in this short since 73.5... are you closing them right now? I have SL 74.1

its heavily overbought on most TF. its time for a retrace but it just won't drop... also despite the plunge - Yen likes to be weak so its not really a healthy short. I anticipate a drop still but i won't put money on it anymore. This trade is closed -10pips.

I keep my EURAUD long
  • #41,572
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:40pm Sep 10, 2019 5:40pm
Quoting jaylovin
If AJ closes here I will close my trades... overbought or not its really gotten on my nerves {image}
You're picking tops. The market really needs some time to show their hand before it will drop. Selling at these levels is the right thing to do due to risk reward factors. But timing is extremely important.

You should wait until market has lost upward momentum before going short.
  • #41,573
  • Edited 5:59pm Sep 10, 2019 5:45pm | Edited 5:59pm
9/11/2019 levels... next to print 1056 or 1031...

RU R3 ----------1.1076
FP R3 ----------1.1074
WP R1 ----------1.1073
MP PP ----------1.1068
FP R2 ----------1.1063
RU R2 ----------1.1063
FP R1 ----------1.1056
RU R1 ----------1.1055
FP PP ----------1.1045
RU S1 ----------1.1039
FP S1 ----------1.1034
RU S2 ----------1.1031
FP S2 ----------1.1027
RU S3 ----------1.1018
FP S3 ----------1.1016
WP PP ----------1.1012
  • #41,574
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:52pm Sep 10, 2019 5:52pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} You're picking tops. The market really needs some time to show their hand before it will drop. Selling at these levels is the right thing to do due to risk reward factors. But timing is extremely important. You should wait until market has lost upward momentum before going short.
0r risk 10 pips to gain 20X (200 pips) seems acceptable . I'm just pulling numbers out of air. My point is, its an individual's choice to determine the risk they use. Compared to potential reward. By the time its verified to reverse, (loss of upward momentum) It may be 100 pips off the high lower. . The stop may be many times greater than the example 10 pips. No perfect answers. So R/R is always needed, and even it should be fluid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #41,575
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:53pm Sep 10, 2019 5:53pm
9/11/2019 Chf levels... next to print 9925 or 9902..

FP R3 ----------0.9956
WP R2 ----------0.9949
FP R2 ----------0.9940
RU R3 ----------0.9937
FP R1 ----------0.9930
RU R2 ----------0.9925
RU R1 ----------0.9919
WP R1 ----------0.9918
FP PP ----------0.9913
RU S1 ----------0.9902
FP S1 ----------0.9897
RU S2 ----------0.989
FP S2 ----------0.9887
RU S3 ----------0.9871
FP S3 ----------0.9870
  • #41,576
  • Sep 10, 2019 5:55pm Sep 10, 2019 5:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}0r risk 10 pips to gain 20X (200 pips) seems acceptable . I'm just pulling numbers out of air. My point is, its an individual's choice to determine the risk they use. Compared to potential reward. By the time its verified to reverse, (loss of upward momentum) It may be 100 pips off the high lower. . The stop may be many times greater than the example 10 pips. No perfect answers. So R/R is always needed, and even it should be fluid.
you are the master to pick the perfect tops and bottoms....I have to say... it proved so many times before...
  • #41,577
  • Sep 10, 2019 6:07pm Sep 10, 2019 6:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}0r risk 10 pips to gain 20X (200 pips) seems acceptable . I'm just pulling numbers out of air. My point is, its an individual's choice to determine the risk they use. Compared to potential reward. By the time its verified to reverse, (loss of upward momentum) It may be 100 pips off the high lower. . The stop may be many times greater than the example 10 pips. No perfect answers. So R/R is always needed, and even it should be fluid.
That's true. But judging from his posts it does seem like he's frustrated about AJ price still going up.

Which suggests either his stops are not big enough, or his timing is off.
  • #41,578
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:34pm Sep 10, 2019 8:34pm
Quoting thelws
{quote} That's true. But judging from his posts it does seem like he's frustrated about AJ price still going up. Which suggests either his stops are not big enough, or his timing is off.
it's never an easy situation in another's shoes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #41,579
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:47pm Sep 10, 2019 8:47pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you are the master to pick the perfect tops and bottoms....I have to say... it proved so many times before...
I miss a bunch too.. gbp gave me fits today.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #41,580
  • Sep 10, 2019 11:16pm Sep 10, 2019 11:16pm
extract from forexlive with regard to todays ECB rate decision

Market expectations are for the ECB to cut rates by 10bp and the ECB to announce some form of deposit tiering system, given it is explicitly mentioned as a mitigating measure, and restarting QE. Here is a skeleton outline of what to look for

  1. If the ECB cut rates by 10bps and restart QE, expect the EUR to potential rally on a 'sell the rumour, buy the fact trade'. (watch the statement doesn't flag up further rates cuts to come in the future though as that would alter this outlook).
  2. If the ECB don't cut rates or introduce QE, expect immediate EUR buyers on a relief rally
  3. If the ECB cut rates by 20bps plus and restart QE for more than 60bln per month expect immediate EUR sellers.

sell strength in falling markets, and buy weakness in rising markets.
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