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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #12,241
  • Sep 6, 2019 7:02pm Sep 6, 2019 7:02pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} Nice keep posting..
Sure I will Suran. Judt a matter of finding time to type out these long posts.

Strat Shadow

People say that you can make a living out of trading if you can trade one thing well. Why not start with this high probability trade?

Probably the lowest risk, highest reward I can find on the Daily chart. I like to call it the rubber band effect.
1) Make sure a direction is established. Even better if the Boss chart shows a confirmed swing high/low.
2) Wait for signal candle AROUND the 20ema of the Strat Shadow. Can be a BEEB/BEOB, BUEB/BUOB or DBHLC/DBLHC. As for shooting stars... I am a little bit more careful with it as Bond is everywhere. Check for position/relative size/momentum etc.

Train your eyes well and exercise patience. Last week was on EURAUD, and yesterday was EURNZD.

EURAUD
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EURNZD
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Of course, all requires proper money management.
  • #12,242
  • Sep 6, 2019 7:15pm Sep 6, 2019 7:15pm
The Power of Time Frames

As Strat frequently says, we take our direction from the Boss and the Big Boss. What does that really mean? It can be confusing for new traders (and it was confusing to me as well). Let us start with a horrible pair and I explain to you what I learnt.

GBPAUD

Look at the Big Boss Chart. On hindsight, it looks to trend up, but look at how flat the Strat Shadow is. What does the candle on August 2019 tell us? NOTHING!
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Going down to the Boss Chart, we see the same thing. Bad Trend with the Strat Shadow breached several times.
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And on the worker chart.... Price still hasnt respected the Strat Shadow so we STAY OUT!
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Look, I am not saying that this pair is not tradable at this time. It is just not in line with our Long Term, Stress Free Trading. So many other pairs to look at, why not wait till the Big Boss gives a better indication of trend?
  • #12,243
  • Edited Sep 7, 2019 6:58am Sep 6, 2019 10:51pm | Edited Sep 7, 2019 6:58am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Thanks MikeSS. End of the day it comes down to a lack of discipline for me. I keep jumping into trades and doing things like moving my TP. I'll get there eventually. For the week ahead, I like buying AUD, CAD, NZD against everything else. Buy GBP against the USD, but not the commodities currencies, and selling the EUR against pretty much everything. Looks like money is leaving the yen too.
Hi Rub,

I think you are having too much bias. For me, what clicked was looking at every chart individually. No correlation, no 'but USD is strong now, so USDCAD shouldn't go down!' mentality that hinders in entering a trade. Take a step back and wonder why AB chart is worth entering, while maybe DE chart is not worth. Maybe thinking as a game will help..? For example, I recently bought AUDUSD,AUDJPY and USDJPY which all ended in profit.

As for moving TP, I rather you close the trade at the moment than moving TP. E.g. securing some pips in advance of NFP. It could also be a lack of trust with your initial trade plan, maybe your TP is too far away to be realistic..? How many TPs do you make in a trade?

I think managing a trade is about capital preservation=accepting the risk of the trade+trailing SL to last swing high/low. Try keeping a 0.01 lot trade for the long term at BE, then trail your SL will help train your emotions and keep your fear and greed in check. If you get stop out with a huge pullback, then so be it. The market is always there for you. The next trend is always being planned by the Big Boys.

Also, look at the recent NZD trend, as well as the recent bounce of the commodity currencies and you will see that a trend is much stronger than you think it is. Don't forget that we are here to trade Long Term and Stress Free.

Just my two cents, hope it helps in any little way possible.
  • #12,244
  • Sep 7, 2019 3:28am Sep 7, 2019 3:28am
May be PASR might give us the answer..

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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #12,245
  • Sep 7, 2019 6:57am Sep 7, 2019 6:57am
Quoting Suran
May be PASR might give us the answer.. {image}
Nice level to keep a lookout for.. thanks for sharing..!
  • #12,246
  • Sep 7, 2019 7:47pm Sep 7, 2019 7:47pm
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Rub, I think you are having too much bias. For me, what clicked was looking at every chart individually. No correlation, no 'but USD is strong now, so USDCAD shouldn't go down!' mentality that hinders in entering a trade. Take a step back and wonder why AB chart is worth entering, while maybe DE chart is not worth. Maybe thinking as a game will help..? For example, I recently bought AUDUSD,AUDJPY and USDJPY which all ended in profit. As for moving TP, I rather you close the trade at the moment than moving TP. E.g. securing some pips in...

I think you've kind of mistaken my last post, I do look at individual charts but I posted a general overview of what I plan for next week rather than specifics. If you think it's better to do a more detailed post about one instead I'll start doing that. I'm trying to encourage people to look at their own charts.

Anyway, an example of what I was looking at is GBP/USD. This is likely to be a short term "ATM" trade, as it's against the dominant trend.
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  • #12,247
  • Sep 8, 2019 2:23pm Sep 8, 2019 2:23pm
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Nice level to keep a lookout for.. thanks for sharing..!
hi Miku. ive just been reading the last few pages and ive found your posts to be like a breath of fresh air....even though Strat has been taking time out (hopefully), for a while, you have seamlessly stepped into his shoes ad you are doing exactly what he would have hoped more of us would be able to do. you are very knowledgeable on Strat's strategy. i think a lot of us would like to be where you are at least. i feel like i have learnt more here with Strat than anywhere else but one thing i cant grasp or base any type of decision making on is the Strat Shadow. i just cant relate it to any price action that goes on on the charts. i dont know if its a brain freeze (like a permanent one) or im just too dumb to understand it. keep going though Miku. you are inspiring.

ive been taking taking time out too. needed to gather my thoughts and find some direction in my trading. im going to try and spend more time here and refresh on Strat's strategy.

for what its worth im looking at these on the 4hr for the coming week:

AUDJPY - LONG
AUDUSD - LONG
CADJPY - LONG
EURAUD - SHORT
GBPJPY - LONG
GBPUSD - LONG
USDCAD - SHORT

Good Luck Everyone
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.
  • #12,248
  • Sep 8, 2019 7:06pm Sep 8, 2019 7:06pm
Quoting Alesiosc
{quote} hi Miku. ive just been reading the last few pages and ive found your posts to be like a breath of fresh air....even though Strat has been taking time out (hopefully), for a while, you have seamlessly stepped into his shoes ad you are doing exactly what he would have hoped more of us would be able to do. you are very knowledgeable on Strat's strategy. i think a lot of us would like to be where you are at least. i feel like i have learnt more here with Strat than anywhere else but one thing i cant grasp or base any type of decision making...
Hi Alesiosc,

You are giving me too much credit for what it is worth. Just like you, I am still on the Path (albeit a little longer). I am still far from being able to say 'I am a consistently profitable trader'.

After taking half a year break from trading and looking at charts, I have learnt to be patient and take those with the best R:R and sore thumb setups. I have my sore thumb setups, what is yours..? My trades from last week were done after 30 seconds of glancing (AUDUSD, AUDJPY, USDJPY, EURNZD).

While I have done all the analysis correctly last week, I was unable to find a good entry (or missed them at work..!). For example, as much as I would like to short EURCAD, there were 2 opportunities on H4 and Daily chart, but close to NFP. Would you have entered? I didn't. Did I regret? Probably yes, because I should have trusted the Boss Swing more than NFP. But I know that the next setup is waiting at the next moment, this now keeps my emotion in check and prevents me from revenge trading.
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As for the pairs highlighted, I have a few questions. Could you explain to me why you are looking at:
GBPJPY Short --> Comfirmed Swing Low on Boss chart, in uptrend, I will be looking at Longs instead. But be careful of resistance at Strat Shadow on Boss and Worker chart.
EURAUD --> Confirmed Swing High on Boss chart, in downtrend, I will be looking at shorts instead. Although be careful of the Big Boss Strat Shadow support.
USDCAD --> Confirmed Swing High on Boss chart, in downtrend, I will be looking at shorts instead. Boss candle closed below the Strat Shadow, but be aware of the Big Boss Strat Shadow support on the Big Boss chart.
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As usual, we wait for PASR signals to confirm the direction of the Big Boys.
  • #12,249
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:23pm Sep 9, 2019 3:23pm
Jumped in a little early as I had to leave for an appointment, but still sitting in this trade.
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  • #12,250
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:51pm Sep 9, 2019 4:51pm
Quoting Rub
Jumped in a little early as I had to leave for an appointment, but still sitting in this trade. {image}
Good catch! I was away to settle some house stuff an when I checked 15 mins later, price had already moved too far to enter.

Same for GBPJPY:
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  • #12,251
  • Sep 10, 2019 4:33am Sep 10, 2019 4:33am
Hey guys,


I have a question about Strat's chart he last posted here. Could anybody of you give me an answer.

Points 1,2,3,4 marked on the chart are Swing points .That is points 1 & 3 are Swing highs and points 2,4 are swing lows. my question is WHY HE DIDN'T USE THAT SWING POINTS?
Any thoughts?

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Much appreciated

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #12,252
  • Sep 10, 2019 7:03am Sep 10, 2019 7:03am
Quoting Rub
Jumped in a little early as I had to leave for an appointment, but still sitting in this trade. {image}
Nice catch, Rub!

Can i ask where did you set your target, mine is at around 135.00 with Stop loss below the swing high. i didn't see any obstacles for the price before level of 135.00 maybe 20 WK ema, which i acting as dinamyc resistance.

Sorry if my question is too personal or inappropriate, just wanted to know if my trade management is right. i am still in the process of Studing, Learning and Understanding. Thanks for the help of everybody who contributes and keeps the thread alive!

Thanks and sorry for my English!

Have a good day,
Emil
You attract what you think in any area of life, relationships and trading!
  • #12,253
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:54am Sep 10, 2019 9:54am
PASR

Quoting Alesiosc
{quote} hi Miku. ive just been reading the last few pages and ive found your posts to be like a breath of fresh air....even though Strat has been taking time out (hopefully), for a while, you have seamlessly stepped into his shoes ad you are doing exactly what he would have hoped more of us would be able to do. you are very knowledgeable on Strat's strategy. i think a lot of us would like to be where you are at least. i feel like i have learnt more here with Strat than anywhere else but one thing i cant grasp or base any type of decision making...
but one thing i cant grasp or base any type of decision making on is the Strat Shadow

There is SO MUCH you have not understood about PASR!

i dont know if its a brain freeze (like a permanent one) or im just too dumb to understand it.

Whatever it is, you need to find out why and understand it like the back of your hand

for what its worth im looking at these on the 4hr for the coming week

You have not mastered PASR on the daily time frame yet so why are you looking at H4? Until you understand PASR on the daily you should FORGET all shorter time frames.

You have not yet got past Step 1 - STEP 1 – Not knowing what the hell you are doing!

Among MANY OTHER things, the Strat Shadow shows us the "general" BUYER/SELLER sentiment for that particular time frame - its NOT PERFECT but neither is anything else out there, despite what the "gurus" want you to believe. We still have to use discretion and our understanding of PASR to be "consistently profitable"

Thank you Miku, Suranga, Rub, Mhons, bistolis and others for helping your fellow traders - KARMA will reward you.

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Now, back to my trading
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,254
  • Sep 10, 2019 1:37pm Sep 10, 2019 1:37pm
Quoting strat
im looking at these on the 4hr for the coming week You have not mastered PASR on the daily time frame yet so why are you looking at H4? Until you understand PASR on the daily you should FORGET all shorter time frames.

Guilty as charged Your Honour!

I caught a few lucky H4 trades at the start of August (trading H4 because I thought the daily was too slow), then got over confident, then lost on a bunch of trades.

Toward the end of August I went back to basics again (where I should have stayed), resistance to support and support to resistance on the daily, and my results improved.
  • #12,255
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:04pm Sep 10, 2019 8:04pm
Quoting Suran
Hey guys, I have a question about Strat's chart he last posted here. Could anybody of you give me an answer. Points 1,2,3,4 marked on the chart are Swing points .That is points 1 & 3 are Swing highs and points 2,4 are swing lows. my question is WHY HE DIDN'T USE THAT SWING POINTS? Any thoughts? {image} Much appreciated Suranga
Maybe the 1,2,3,4 was just the Worker Swing, and he use the BOSS Swing.
Don't Rush Things, Be PATIENT and Wait For the Best Trade Setup
  • #12,256
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:50pm Sep 10, 2019 8:50pm
Quoting tommyFL
{quote} Guilty as charged Your Honour! I caught a few lucky H4 trades at the start of August (trading H4 because I thought the daily was too slow), then got over confident, then lost on a bunch of trades. Toward the end of August I went back to basics again (where I should have stayed), resistance to support and support to resistance on the daily, and my results improved.
Same here Tommy, Back to basics...Before mastering Basics in (Daily) its impossible to be consistently profitable in lower time frames. There is NO GAP or Loop holes in THE PATH that we can find to get away.
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #12,257
  • Edited 10:04pm Sep 10, 2019 8:54pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting Cj.cn
{quote} Maybe the 1,2,3,4 was just the Worker Swing, and he use the BOSS Swing.
Cj

Its not worker swings. those are Boss swings, because proceeding candles closed bellow /above the extreme of the marked candles .which means them theoretically a confirmed swing points. Or may be I am missing some thing?

thanks for the answer anyway

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #12,258
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:02pm Sep 10, 2019 9:02pm
Quoting Eushev24
{quote} Nice catch, Rub! Can i ask where did you set your target, mine is at around 135.00 with Stop loss below the swing high. i didn't see any obstacles for the price before level of 135.00 maybe 20 WK ema, which i acting as dinamyc resistance. Sorry if my question is too personal or inappropriate, just wanted to know if my trade management is right. i am still in the process of Studing, Learning and Understanding. Thanks for the help of everybody who contributes and keeps the thread alive! Thanks and sorry for my English! Have a good day, Emil...
May be you should check 133.35 S/R level of which coincides with Daily (Boss for H4 trades) Strat shadow extreme.
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #12,259
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:17pm Sep 10, 2019 9:17pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} Cj Its not worker swings. those are Boss swings, because proceeding candles closed bellow /above the extreme of the marked candles .which means them theoretically a swing points. Or may be I am missing some thing? thanks for the answer anyway Suranga
Suran

Sorry. That is a BOSS chart. I thought it was a Worker chart. My mistake.

It looks like Elliott Wave. It was the 2nd wave, and 1,2,3,4 was the pull back of 2nd wave.

Just my own opinion, I don't know Elliott wave.

best regards
Don't Rush Things, Be PATIENT and Wait For the Best Trade Setup
  • #12,260
  • Sep 11, 2019 12:19am Sep 11, 2019 12:19am
Quoting Suran
Hey guys, I have a question about Strat's chart he last posted here. Could anybody of you give me an answer. Points 1,2,3,4 marked on the chart are Swing points .That is points 1 & 3 are Swing highs and points 2,4 are swing lows. my question is WHY HE DIDN'T USE THAT SWING POINTS? Any thoughts? {image} Much appreciated Suranga
My take on it is it's showing higher highs and higher lows. The top shows as a double top.


Quoting Eushev24
{quote} Nice catch, Rub! Can i ask where did you set your target, mine is at around 135.00 with Stop loss below the swing high. i didn't see any obstacles for the price before level of 135.00 maybe 20 WK ema, which i acting as dinamyc resistance. Sorry if my question is too personal or inappropriate, just wanted to know if my trade management is right. i am still in the process of Studing, Learning and Understanding. Thanks for the help of everybody who contributes and keeps the thread alive! Thanks and sorry for my English! Have a good day, Emil...
I'm intending to trail my stop below swing lows until I get stopped out, but I see 135 or just shy as a reasonable target for exactly the reasons you've mentioned. If you'd been brave you could have entered on the doji of the 3rd-september (previous support - look left!), but I waited until the week close (bullish engulfing bar!), then looked for an entry on the 4hr chart (as I can trade the yen pairs on 4hr comfortably).
Remember this is overall a counter trend trade.

Does that answer things?
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