Newbie Student Technical Analysis Group

EUR NZD


After the engulf, price was very unlikely to break back through the extreme of the supply zone it just came from.

The unfilled sell orders were lined up there.

A nice engulfing candle that was the final PA confirmation that price was going down.

The supply zones were easily drawn in advance, just waiting for an engulf clue then return, so this is not just hindsight.

AUD CAD

QM Simple Form

GBP JPY


On the news

PMI

GBP USD

Limit Order Filled



Gibril

USD CHF

Choice of Entry

EUR JPY



The imbalances are created by big orders of MM and these orders need to be filled at their prefixed price range (at wholesale price).

All these orders can't be filled in one go hence the retest to the zone to sell or buy again at wholesale.

Usually enter only on first retest to boost for better price.

Price should now be able to go through to retest directly the source of pole.

USD JPY

Perfect fake out

The candle broken the resistance possibly fakeout in the beginning. The previous support breakout was possibly a SRF. Wait for candle to go below BASE rectangle will gives rest of mind, otherwise the resistance breakout could be true.

Check the charts. Just as I said in the past I used to be an aggressive breakout trader. And have been ambushed over and over by "Fakeout". If I had got in during the support breakout on USD JPY I would have been ambushed again.

As I said I remain a Conservative breakout trader now- waiting for one bearish candle below the broken support

10 habits of good connectors:
1 give without expecting a get
2 choose kind over clever
3 do not correct as a hobby
4 connect like-minded
5 share accurate content
6 promote others good work
7 consistently contribute
8 do not respond to negativity
9 value originality
10 judge less

https://theleadertheteacher.files.wo...g-the-dots.png

Based on this equation Volatility = High Volume + Low Liquidity, I will be using some of the terms that have the same meaning and used by many traders as follows:

Indecision = Balance = Equilibrium = Stable = Normal = Efficient = Base = Cluster = Block = Range = Consolidation = Flag

Decision = Imbalance = Unstable = Abnormal = Inefficient = Impulse = Momentum = Engulf = Liquidity Gap / Spike = Breakout = Pole

Corrective Moves = Rebalancing

Supply / Demand = RBD / DBR = Cap on Price

Decision Point = RBR / DBD = Spike Base = Flag Limit = Breaker

Pivot Zone = S/R Flip / Swap = Key Level

Level = Zone = Area

Broken = Ignored

Trend Reversal Pattern = Over & Under Pattern = Quasimodo (QM)

False Breakout = Fakeout = Stop Run / Hunt = Bull / Bear Trap

Positioning / Accumulation = Liquidation / Distribution

Compression (CP)

Engulf / Retest (ER) = Fail To Return (FTR) = Hook

First Time Back (FTB)

USD CAD

Scalping

With H4 SRF and confirmed by QM @ M15

It is the concept everyone seems to struggle with to some degree:

Having a relative small risk at the point of entry - but wanting to gain as much as possible, should the move develop into something bigger.

More often than not, the price turns one more time - just to take you out - before it makes the gigantic move. (if you respect your risk/reward)

Is to decide either for, or against this type of "trade-off" where you give up so many of your sure small profits just to be still in the market when the big move happens.?

On every page there was a big transaction but the many, many small deals kept him sane, profitable and stress free as he was always sure with every small deal a big one was just around the corner. Again how this applies to trading should be painfully obvious.

Myths

1) The more complicated the trading system the better chance you have at succeeding.

Just the opposite. The simplest solution is often the most effective. Any time you add another item or variable you introduce another point of failure. Keep Occam in mind when developing a trading strategy.

2) The more I learn the more I earn.

Learning is never a bad thing... however... there's no such thing as a PHD in trading. Once you developed a system that works stick to it. Read and learn for the sake of personal gain. The Holy Grail of trading doesn't exist so you can stop searching for it.

3) Mathematicians and people with science acumen make better traders.

Do I have a great example of this flawed logic. Long Term Capital. Trading is as much about emotion as it is about logic. Emotion can't be quantified. If this statement had any validity there would be a lot of MIT graduates on the Forbes list.

4) You win more often by listening to analysts comments.

There are some very good analysts in the Forex world. However NONE of them know where the market is going. Trade based on a trading plan that you've tested and are comfortable with. If you find your trading decisions are being altered by reading analysts comments then stop reading them.

5) Trading is exciting.

Only in the movies. Sitting for hours watching charts and reading economic reports - I can hardly contain myself. If you experience the same rush from trading as you do from gambling then you are probably gambling.

6) Great traders are born with an innate trading skill.

This sounds absurd but there are a lot of people who truly believe certain people are born traders. The last time I checked geneticists have yet to uncover the enigmatic trading gene. This nonsense undermines the hard work successful traders put in to winning.

7) After each loss I double up on the next trade. After losing 3 in a row my odds of losing on the next trade are minimal.

Nope. Doesn't work that way. If you flip a coin 100 times the 101 flip is still 50/50. Trading a small percentage of your account on each trade is the only way to survive your systems drawdown. Don't fall prey to the gambler's fallacy.

9) All Day traders lose money.

You will see this one everywhere. Price action is the short term is unpredictable. Studies have proven it doesn't work. Spreads make it impossible to win. Support and resistance are meaningless. Day traders don't make as much. The list goes on and on. Yet every day a small percentage of traders beat the market. If one person can be successful at day trading then so can two. Don't let others project their inadequacies on you.

10) Stops tighter than 40 pips will result in failure.

Your stop should be based on your system. Be cautious of anyone issuing absolutes - especially in the trading world. The time frame you are trading should determine your stop. Longer term traders will naturally have wider stops.

11) Price action in the short term is random.

Who defines short term? If you have any evidence that price is random on any time frame please forward it to me. The information needs to be quantifiable and longitudinal. It's important to point out that we don't have empirical evidence to support our claim either - however - if you look at price action on a 5 sec time frame or a 4 hour time frame similar patterns emerge. If one pattern can be seen on a very short time frame then by definition random can no longer apply.

USD CAD

Small gain from scalping

TRADER TASKS



When the task seems huge, break them down into achievable goals.

The same with building your trading system.

It all starts with you.

First: Set your beliefs right. Know your beliefs about trading, read and understand the beliefs of successful traders, adjust yours to fit the industry.

Second: Set your mission statement. Know what you want from your investment, how much equity you have, what is the sensible figure that you can get as returns, how much draw down you are willing to take and what is the probability percentage of hitting those maximum draw down number.

Third: Understand what type of trader you are. What kind of risk, time, knowledge, resources that you have for trading?

Fourth: Build a position sizing model. Understand how much you are comfortable to put in each position, how many positions you can handle at one time, what is the maximum draw down you can take at one time. All these are based on your trading objectives. Know the expectancy of your system. What is the "average return" of your entry per trade over a number of trades?

Fifth: Build your compelling market model. How does the market work? You can build your market model using technical, fundamental, sentiment, inter market. It doesn't matter. What ever interest you, whatever you can be good at, that is your model. What ever method you choose, it is correct for you. Know what is happening in the market and why certain moves happen in the market.

Sixth: Build a system to analyse market type. Understand how the market move in its particular type, and what to expect next after certain market type.

Seventh: Choose the strategy to use in a particular market type. There is no one strategy that work in all market type. Know the performance of your technique in a particular market type.

Eight: Wait for the setup. Only choose those setups that returns more than the risks that you are taking. Stalk for entry as setup appears.

Ninth: Manage your position. Have a strategy to exit or manage your entry as market moves. Know what to do when market type changes or during news announcement. Understand how to scale in, how to scale out, how to keep your risk low and how to let the profit runs.

Tenth: Keep a record of all your trade. Compare the different systems that you are running (if you have more than one) and look at your processes. Repeat all your successes and work on your losers.

Once you have a system that suits your trading objectives, it is easy for you to keep your discipline and avoid trading mistakes.

The process seems huge, but when you break them down into manageable pieces, you are on your way towards building your system.

CAD JPY


NOte 6th Dec 2019

GBP CAD

6th Dec 2019

GBP CAD


10th Dec 2019

EUR CAD


10 Dec 2019