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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #3,301
  • Sep 5, 2019 4:46pm Sep 5, 2019 4:46pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} How are you implementing the trade? Hopefully through futures or CFDs. I've done pairs trading like this through ETFs in the past and discovered it's not tax efficient.
Both CFDs and ETFs.

What happened in your experience with ETFs? Did you have to pay flow through tax on positions that were still open or not have similar offsetting gains for your losses?
  • #3,302
  • Sep 5, 2019 5:02pm Sep 5, 2019 5:02pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Both CFDs and ETFs. What happened in your experience with ETFs? Did you have to pay flow through tax on positions that were still open or not have similar offsetting gains for your losses?
I had a long-term trade where I was long one commodity and short another. The long position lost and short position gained. I later came to find out that when you sell something short the holding period it technically just 1 day and it's the day you 'buy to cover'. For that reason I got hit with short term cap gains despite being in the trade over a year. Its not that bad, it just would have been more efficient to use futures.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #3,303
  • Sep 5, 2019 5:15pm Sep 5, 2019 5:15pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I had a long-term trade where I was long one commodity and short another. The long position lost and short position gained. I later came to find out that when you sell something short the holding period it technically just 1 day and it's the day you 'buy to cover'. For that reason I got hit with short term cap gains despite being in the trade over a year. Its not that bad, it just would have been more efficient to use futures.
Oh yes I understand. I don't plan on trading either position long term anyway. In fact I exited my ETF position before the inventory releases today and will live to fight another trade.

I have a few stories from ETFs past as well.

I got burned years back because the ETF I bought was actually structured as a partnership so the gains/losses had to be realized on my tax return even without selling. I also once bought an ETF and held it for a couple years and noticed that its results were not quite in line with the underlying commodity. I read through the prospectus and realized that the fund was burdened with more fees than I had thought. You live you learn but the right kind of mistakes teach you the most.
  • #3,304
  • Sep 5, 2019 5:22pm Sep 5, 2019 5:22pm
Quoting helgastrxd
I got burned years back because the ETF I bought was actually structured as a partnership so the gains/losses had to be realized on my tax return even without selling. I also once bought an ETF and held it for a couple years and noticed that its results were not quite in line with the underlying commodity. I read through the prospectus and realized that the fund was burdened with more fees than I had thought. You live you learn but the right kind of mistakes teach you the most.
I've bought ETFs like that before too. Those K1 ETFs are a pita, I do my best to avoid them now.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #3,305
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:12am Sep 8, 2019 5:12am
#WTI / Weekly & H4 / Three Ideas
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  • #3,306
  • Sep 8, 2019 12:55pm Sep 8, 2019 12:55pm
Starting to like NGAS trading more and more.. Will see what happens after assumed correction next week..
Don't like so steep incline... rather hard to sustain long(er) term... unless there would be heavy uptrend..
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

And let's not forget who runs the freaking show At least or specially for EU
A little relevant ("funny") video since its (still) weekend
Inserted Video
(t=44s)
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,307
  • Sep 8, 2019 1:10pm Sep 8, 2019 1:10pm
Here are my levels that I am looking at with interest this week...

R3 =2.6343
R2 = 2.5687
R1 = 2.5123

Pivot = 2.421

S1 = 2.3297
S2 = 2.2733
S3 = 2.182
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,308
  • Sep 8, 2019 11:40pm Sep 8, 2019 11:40pm
#NGAS / Daily
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  • #3,309
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:05pm Sep 9, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting auricforecas
Starting to like NGAS trading more and more.. Will see what happens after assumed correction next week.. Don't like so steep incline... rather hard to sustain long(er) term... unless there would be heavy uptrend..
I would agree with you, but we are talking about Natgas. It doesn't follow those type of rules in my experience.

I am sticking to my longs for now but when the NE winter forecasts start rolling in I'll have to exit and re-evaluate.
  • #3,310
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:07pm Sep 9, 2019 1:07pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} I would agree with you, but we are talking about Natgas. It doesn't follow those type of rules in my experience. I am sticking to my longs for now but when the NE winter forecasts start rolling in I'll have to exit and re-evaluate.
Yeah, you might be very right, but you know "just in case" since I am rather new at NGAS I hope it can not be bothered like other markets... BTW
we are again on the edge at fx eurusd.. waiting for ECB, again.. hence, STALL market... Will be tracking NGAS to have a feel on its trend and impact on it by various sources... But at least would know the "currency" (change effect) component that NGAS has also
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,311
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:03pm Sep 9, 2019 4:03pm
This recent move higher in Natural Gas may be a sign of things to come. Check out this research I posted in the Natural Gas thread: https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...0#post12492340
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #3,312
  • Edited 5:56pm Sep 9, 2019 5:33pm | Edited 5:56pm
Probably priced-in as of post time... CoT data: Speculative (Futures only) & Managed Money (Futures & Options)
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Seasonality:
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Near-term: target @ 2.435
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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #3,313
  • Sep 10, 2019 11:18pm Sep 10, 2019 11:18pm
EIA data is coming up and draws in inventory are expected again. I posted a preview for it here: EIA Weekly Petroleum Data - Sept 11th Preview
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #3,314
  • Sep 11, 2019 1:11am Sep 11, 2019 1:11am
Quoting helgastrxd
I got burned years back because the ETF I bought was actually structured as a partnership so the gains/losses had to be realized on my tax return even without selling. I also once bought an ETF and held it for a couple years and noticed that its results were not quite in line with the underlying commodity. I read through the prospectus and realized that the fund was burdened with more fees than I had thought. You live you learn but the right kind of mistakes teach you the most.
Ouch on the tax issue. They had to know this would be an issue with investors and should have aggressively disclosed it! It's crazy the shenanigans the SEC let's ETFs get away with.

I learned the hard way on the fees too. Those carrying costs add up! I was long back when oil was heading to $150... I only captured about $15 of the move, but the ETF fees put me in the negative because I held it so long. I think that was the last time I traded an ETF.
  • #3,315
  • Sep 11, 2019 1:08pm Sep 11, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting auricforecas
Starting to like NGAS trading more and more.. Will see what happens after assumed correction next week.. Don't like so steep incline... rather hard to sustain long(er) term... unless there would be heavy uptrend.. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas And let's not forget who runs the freaking show At least or specially for EU A little relevant ("funny") video since its (still) weekend https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-wFKNy0MZQ (t=44s)...
Glad it corrected a little.. don't like so sharp inclines... Will see how the trend stabilises... This NGAS look(ed) like old Gustafson.. just going forward while other markets were dropping... Will see how this goes.. in a week... Hope it will stick

Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,316
  • Sep 13, 2019 12:29am Sep 13, 2019 12:29am
Quoting Goat
{quote} Ouch on the tax issue. They had to know this would be an issue with investors and should have aggressively disclosed it! It's crazy the shenanigans the SEC let's ETFs get away with. I learned the hard way on the fees too. Those carrying costs add up! I was long back when oil was heading to $150... I only captured about $15 of the move, but the ETF fees put me in the negative because I held it so long. I think that was the last time I traded an ETF.
That is the problem with ETFs they can have many different characteristics. You have to understand the structure, underlyers, fees, management etc etc.
  • #3,317
  • Sep 13, 2019 2:40am Sep 13, 2019 2:40am
If it gets back towards 2.6( which i think it will) I am going to pull out the hammer on it and see if icant cash out on a day or two, i mean the handle is proving to be a bit of a challnge for bulls to sustain any move above it......
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #3,318
  • Sep 16, 2019 6:45am Sep 16, 2019 6:45am
What a wild weekend for oil. I can’t tell how NG is performing relative to oil right now though. Have to get back to my desktop.
  • #3,319
  • Sep 16, 2019 2:16pm Sep 16, 2019 2:16pm
This NGAS sure seem to be a crazy good bet Since it was rather consolidated for it to go up, traders received (unexpected) jump due to saudi events...
Glad something went/stayed on the projected trajectory... Unlike say, oil... Well if this NGAS goes up for the next 2weeks... I might just close all other positions at other markets that disappointed me... because of those influence by some speech... FED on WED, this week... really tired of stall weeks... Or even worse, spike+stall... So keep up the good word NGAS
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,320
  • Sep 17, 2019 5:45pm Sep 17, 2019 5:45pm
Quoting auricforecas
This NGAS sure seem to be a crazy good bet Since it was rather consolidated for it to go up, traders received (unexpected) jump due to saudi events... Glad something went/stayed on the projected trajectory... Unlike say, oil... Well if this NGAS goes up for the next 2weeks... I might just close all other positions at other markets that disappointed me... because of those influence by some speech... FED on WED, this week... really tired of stall weeks... Or even worse, spike+stall... So keep up the good word NGAS
Yes very true. NG can trend much higher or lower than oil which will be stuck in a range until its death.
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