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Plan the Trade

  • #12,441
  • Sep 6, 2019 12:36pm Sep 6, 2019 12:36pm
a little slippage never hurt anyone, wait, who am I kidding. I think it is broker volumes being so erratic the past couple of weeks. actually
had a morning to look at the markets live. no trades for me today. next couple of weeks will be brutal time wise to look for trades.
price action for the past month seems to have been tough for this style of trading. with atr's in the 25-35T on the 20sec charts, it makes limit entries
tough to "plan the trade" without a wide stop open to a hunt by the broker. I'm sticking with the e-mini's as they seem ok. about 2 weeks
until the next rollover in the NQ.
good luck
regards
goma
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,442
  • Edited 7:43pm Sep 6, 2019 6:46pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} I got slippage with stop entries on emini NQ, even with 1 contract sometimes. Has not been the case with ES Thats one of the reasons I liked Harold's old entries based on limit orders because i felt like the strategy could really be precise and grow with an account . . . At this point for me, the volume on ES seems to prevent the issue of slippage . . .
Stop order is basically market order. You will experience more slippage and wider spread compared to limit order. Try Stop-Limit order instead: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...limitorder.asp
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,443
  • Edited 7:07pm Sep 6, 2019 6:54pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting onejester
I'm at BE at the moment. Problem I'm getting on live micro's is slippage, which is frankly infuriating, s'like trading with a forex broker. Admittedly, pa seems a nightmare and if I look back my method of trading, early in the month isn't great. I'm going to sit on my hands and watch...
The trading cost of this method is very expensive. The total cost easily takes 20-30% of your profit. That being said, IMHO, this is a losing strategy in the long run. You're just delighting your broker and CME. Even in the discount brokers, MNQ is even more expensive (almost twice) than ENQ. My broker AMP Futures charges me $4.1 for ENQ and $0.78 to MNQ (two way one contract). That's because in MNQ, Exchange and NFA, CQG fees are not proportionally cheaper. As a result, one tick Break Even setup doesn't cover the cost fully in MNQ. Of course, even in ENQ it's also not guaranteed that one tick BE is honored due to slippage. I am very curious why Harolds changed his strategy..... IMHO, that's not very good sign to be honest.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,444
  • Edited 9:22pm Sep 6, 2019 8:11pm | Edited 9:22pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Stop order is basically market order. You will experience more slippage and wider spread compared to limit order. Try Stop-Limit order instead: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s...limitorder.asp
Heis, i was using stop limits and once and got 4ticks slippage with 1contract on entry. In theory the stop limit should do the trick. Maybe someone swept 5 or 6 price levels on that one . . . . It might not happen enough to matter, but i went back to limit entries on NQ after that.
Of course using buy bid and sell ask usually works on NQ but you may miss some of the good momentum entries and end up waiting for a new set up . . . .
  • #12,445
  • Sep 7, 2019 2:20am Sep 7, 2019 2:20am
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} Heis, i was using stop limits and once and got 4ticks slippage with 1contract on entry. In theory the stop limit should do the trick. Maybe someone swept 5 or 6 price levels on that one . . . . It might not happen enough to matter, but i went back to limit entries on NQ after that. Of course using buy bid and sell ask usually works on NQ but you may miss some of the good momentum entries and end up waiting for a new set up . . . .
Do you find this method successful for you Jason?
I doubt anyone making it works for them.
on a postive roll...
  • #12,446
  • Sep 7, 2019 4:27am Sep 7, 2019 4:27am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Do you find this method successful for you Jason? I doubt anyone making it works for them.
I have been watching ES lately. But I am open minded about a return to NQ some day. : )
  • #12,447
  • Sep 7, 2019 4:40am Sep 7, 2019 4:40am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Do you find this method successful for you Jason? I doubt anyone making it works for them.
Be interested to hear what Jason says. In my own experience with Harold's method, I fear it is my own psychology that is at play. I'm convinced (without any proof) that there is some other edge to this method, and I'm determined to find out what that is. Maybe I'm reading in to it too much, maybe I need some extra confirmation before the entry (personally). Maybe (as has been said before) is Harold's edge is his discipline and rigour, and the method is just part of the strategy.

Clearly don't have that discipline and confidence yet. I should just take the entries and move to another screen win or lose, let them run. Easier said than done...

I will progress, but not at the expense of blowing up.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,448
  • Sep 7, 2019 4:41am Sep 7, 2019 4:41am
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} I have been watching ES lately. But I am open minded about a return to NQ some day. : )
Oh

I'll stick with what I'm doing and observe.

BTW last month was $400 net of fees on one lot. But I will say I had a bad start to the month, what that would have done to my head had I been using real money I don't know.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,449
  • Sep 7, 2019 4:58am Sep 7, 2019 4:58am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Oh I'll stick with what I'm doing and observe.
If the prime objective is to make money within the 1st hour, maybe adding 1 or 2 more strategies will make it less stressful than just stuck with one strategy.
Most of the time you wouldn't get pullback where your order is resting, in such cases I would look to enter at the immediate s/r break. Stop-loss get little wider so is the reward.
on a postive roll...
  • #12,450
  • Sep 7, 2019 6:46am Sep 7, 2019 6:46am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} If the prime objective is to make money within the 1st hour, maybe adding 1 or 2 more strategies will make it less stressful than just stuck with one strategy. Most of the time you wouldn't get pullback where your order is resting, in such cases I would look to enter at the immediate s/r break. Stop-loss get little wider so is the reward.
What I am trying to achieve is to be able to define/measure what strategy to employ on the day (that is a big ask, I know). A strategy, or mixture of strategies that are dynamic. Or to simply say 'I don't recognise this shit, so no trades today'. I have the discipline when I can see the evidence, if you know what I mean. Some will use ATR, but it is too general for me. The answer is in the size of those bars and how the pattern fits within a framework.

Last month, I had 2 x 5 days in a row where I was mid to high 20's on each day. On some of the bad days, I would have come out in profit had I followed Harold's strategy to the letter.

The slippage has presented me with a challenge that I must find a way around. Because I haven't tested Harold's strategy for the reasons I mentioned earlier, I can't say whether the slippage would be an issue.

Exited to see what next week looks like.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,451
  • Sep 8, 2019 4:38am Sep 8, 2019 4:38am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Be interested to hear what Jason says. In my own experience with Harold's method, I fear it is my own psychology that is at play. I'm convinced (without any proof) that there is some other edge to this method, and I'm determined to find out what that is. Maybe I'm reading in to it too much, maybe I need some extra confirmation before the entry (personally). Maybe (as has been said before) is Harold's edge is his discipline and rigour, and the method is just part of the strategy. Clearly don't have that discipline and confidence yet. I should...
Be careful about just taking someone’s word that they are profitable, especially if they keep flipping their strategy rules around so quickly. Most people just post their after the fact analysis and the odd video of a winning day. You might just be beating yourself up over nothing!
So many in the Commercial section want to make me rich! :o
  • #12,452
  • Sep 8, 2019 7:47am Sep 8, 2019 7:47am
Quoting FX-Flux
{quote} Be careful about just taking someone’s word that they are profitable, especially if they keep flipping their strategy rules around so quickly. Most people just post their after the fact analysis and the odd video of a winning day. You might just be beating yourself up over nothing!
Wise words and thank you. I'm very good at reading between the lines, which is precisely what I have done. Personally, I believe no one and trust nobody. The only thing I know is that there is me and price. It is up to me to anticipate the sentiment using tools that make sense to me. I think it is the same for all of us, as we are mere men and women trying to frame apparent chaos and profit from what we've framed. If you'd developed a hard earned edge, would you give it up?

The great thing about this forum is it set me on a journey. And lets face it somebody must have cracked this or there would be no economy, that I can see with my own eyes. My mothers word always ring true - 'where there is a will...'
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,453
  • Sep 9, 2019 9:39am Sep 9, 2019 9:39am
Ok, +17 hard earned buttock clenching digits of delight. I just need to relax a little, but found pa difficult today. Was slipped at least 5.

Out tomorrow so see y'all later in the week.
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'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,454
  • Sep 11, 2019 9:23am Sep 11, 2019 9:23am
first trades in sept. and it is already 9/11. work and back issues have kept me preoccupied (seeing the dr. again today). at any rrate
plus 8 net on 3 trades ( minus 9, plus 9, plus 8) on the emini NQ. rollover starts tmro so will see what happens to vol and volatility.
first 3 full months of trading this method (including the caffeine induced fat finger mistakes) net positive. not a high dollar value
obviously, but I still plan to use this method thru the end of the year, re-evaluate it all.
good luck
regards
goma
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,455
  • Edited 12:17pm Sep 11, 2019 11:56am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting goma
first trades in sept. and it is already 9/11. work and back issues have kept me preoccupied (seeing the dr. again today). at any rrate plus 8 net on 3 trades ( minus 9, plus 9, plus 8) on the emini NQ. rollover starts tmro so will see what happens to vol and volatility. first 3 full months of trading this method (including the caffeine induced fat finger mistakes) net positive. not a high dollar value obviously, but I still plan to use this method thru the end of the year, re-evaluate it all. good luck regards goma {image} {image}
Cool. Btw, do you know the total trading cost (commission+exchange+NFA,..etc.) you paid during this period? Just curious....
Thanks
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,456
  • Sep 11, 2019 2:47pm Sep 11, 2019 2:47pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Cool. Btw, do you know the total trading cost (commission+exchange+NFA,..etc.) you paid during this period? Just curious.... Thanks
I had 99 trades thru the 3 month period (including this morning). ave cost 4.98 per trade or just under 500.00 usd. I obsessed on this a little at first, but scalping
being the MOST expensive form of trading whether it be futures, fores, equities, real estate or marbles it really is to be expected. My plan to reduce
commissions is to get average trades up to the 9-10-11 tick range consistently so I am keeping it close to 10-15%. The 4.98 costs are inclusive of
all costs round trip, broker, CME etc. I could reduce this to about 3.80 round trip if I chose to buy the broker's lifetime license for about 1000.00 usd but at the current rate I trade, it would take at least 2 years. whatever.... the chart above is net profit after losses and trade commissions. other brokers might show it
differently, but at the end of each day my broker subtracts losses and trades (4.98 each) from profits (if any) and my new net profit is shown at the beginning
of the rollover to the next trading day.
If you want to swing trade this one be prepared for larger movements ie draw downs or larger profits. recent market conditions being such, do not endear me
to swing trading, as it did when I traded forex. Anyways this is my first 3 months (and a day) live in futures. I'll keep you posted.
good luck
regards
goma
  • #12,457
  • Sep 11, 2019 6:47pm Sep 11, 2019 6:47pm
Quoting goma
{quote} I had 99 trades thru the 3 month period (including this morning). ave cost 4.98 per trade or just under 500.00 usd. I obsessed on this a little at first, but scalping being the MOST expensive form of trading whether it be futures, fores, equities, real estate or marbles it really is to be expected. My plan to reduce commissions is to get average trades up to the 9-10-11 tick range consistently so I am keeping it close to 10-15%. The 4.98 costs are inclusive of all costs round trip, broker, CME etc. I could reduce this to about 3.80 round...
Thank you very much for details! If this trading style fits you, I think you should consider being a CME member to save extra cost: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=919672
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #12,458
  • Sep 11, 2019 11:10pm Sep 11, 2019 11:10pm
Quoting goma
{quote} I had 99 trades thru the 3 month period (including this morning). ave cost 4.98 per trade or just under 500.00 usd. I obsessed on this a little at first, but scalping being the MOST expensive form of trading whether it be futures, fores, equities, real estate or marbles it really is to be expected. My plan to reduce commissions is to get average trades up to the 9-10-11 tick range consistently so I am keeping it close to 10-15%. The 4.98 costs are inclusive of all costs round trip, broker, CME etc. I could reduce this to about 3.80 round...
Goma, which data provider do you use? Thanks, Jason
  • #12,459
  • Sep 12, 2019 7:09am Sep 12, 2019 7:09am
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} Goma, which data provider do you use? Thanks, Jason
ninjatrader uses something called continuum which is "powered" by CQG. i believe it it their own servers as filter to their clients. they hhave several
data feeds available depending on what level of client you are ie free (like me) to paid software ownership. I honestly haven't looked at
other options, I feel there are always going to be "middlemen" unless I want to pay to get next to the fastest pipeline to the trade.
good luck
regards
goma
  • #12,460
  • Sep 12, 2019 9:58am Sep 12, 2019 9:58am
Quoting goma
{quote} ninjatrader uses something called continuum which is "powered" by CQG. i believe it it their own servers as filter to their clients. they hhave several data feeds available depending on what level of client you are ie free (like me) to paid software ownership. I honestly haven't looked at other options, I feel there are always going to be "middlemen" unless I want to pay to get next to the fastest pipeline to the trade. good luck regards goma
Thanks. Just curious if it was cqg or rithmic. Appreciate your answer
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