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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #3,661
  • Sep 6, 2019 3:53pm Sep 6, 2019 3:53pm
Quoting auricforecas
WTI Oil still look overall downtrend for me.. pretty stable, more or less, which I like... However there are many daily (up)trading opportunities... BTW, do you guys factor changes in USD (eurusd) for example, when placing the trade or when estimating the trend etc? Because I believe this week we have a slight correction (meaning USD temp, this week or max one week more, losing some strength)
Well another wasted/delayed week... I give it another week to correct itself.. otherwise I will assume it is what it is... Still believe it will correct within a week so we can resume (trend)surfing I believe it would have corrected already if the market's weren't distorted by news/speeches this week... I mean, hope FED etc.. will be quiet for a while, so we can do/resume REAL trading.. instead of SPIKE chasing trading... I do not like the later... so I will be out of the market for the next 7days... or until the market resumes as it should, if I'm right... If I'm not... yeah, better to be out then also... otherwise I might just be throwing darts at a board, which I do not like at all... Happy weekend to all! I believe we should rest.. because there might be (I believe) excellent week(s) ahead.. in the best part of the year, for (profitable) trading
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,662
  • Sep 6, 2019 4:00pm Sep 6, 2019 4:00pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well another wasted/delayed week... I give it another week to correct itself.. otherwise I will assume it is what it is... Still believe it will correct within a week so we can resume (trend)surfing I believe it would have corrected already if the market's weren't distorted by news/speeches this week... I mean, hope FED etc.. will be quiet for a while, so we can do/resume REAL trading.. instead of SPIKE chasing trading... I do not like the later... so I will be out of the market for the next 7days... or until the market resumes as...
This direction seems to surprise everyone in this thread, myself especially! We are close to having to start riding the other way, for sure.
  • #3,663
  • Sep 6, 2019 4:42pm Sep 6, 2019 4:42pm
"We are winning the trade war. Trade talks are just around the corner. Their people called our people."
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  • #3,664
  • Sep 6, 2019 9:22pm Sep 6, 2019 9:22pm
Hi all, back and refreshed, if you can call it that, seems a 180 on WTI, even TC's formation has rebounded, no need for the crossing out TC, it made the mark, a reflection of the market indecision, will be taking a closer look over the weekend to evaluate, Sponge sunning himself now, leaving some profit for us minions to take, hope you have a good time Sponge, looking forward to you market commentary when your back, been reading from afar and it ain't to bad
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,665
  • Sep 7, 2019 2:41am Sep 7, 2019 2:41am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,666
  • Sep 7, 2019 4:56am Sep 7, 2019 4:56am
OIL PRICES END HIGHER AGAIN ON IMPROVED RISK APPETITE
6 September 2019, 23:31

 

  1. Oil prices continue higher in broadly improved risk sentiment
  2. OPEC is committed to doing the heavy lifting necessary to balance markets.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices were higher again on Friday, ending on Wall Street 0.82% in the green having travelled from a low of $54.84 to a high of $56.91. For October delivery, the price was 22 cents better off, or 0.4%, settle at $56.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after ending Thursday a few cents-per-barrel higher. WTI scored a weekly gain of 2.6%.
The prices have been held up on the back of rising risk appetite, positive trade sentiment and the algos buying the headlines, and good old supply and demand fundamentals from the rig count showing for the third week of falling domestic crude supplies. Baker Hughes showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil declined by four to 738 this week and this followed the prior day's the Energy Information Administration saying that U.S. crude supplies declined by 4.8 million barrels.
Crude oil markets remain range-bound amid a dichotomy
"Crude oil markets remain range-bound amid a dichotomy between demand and supply signals. Stalling trade talks continue to place a cloud on energy markets, particularly as angst grows on the prospect for demand to recover amid slumping growth signals globally," analysts at TD Securities argued.

"In contrast, the supply side narrative remains strong as OPEC is committed to doing the heavy lifting necessary to balance markets, while Venezuelan exports slump to a sixteen year low. While next week's JMMC meeting is unlikely to lead to a change in policy, the market continues to require OPEC to remain committed to its cuts. In this context, momentum indicators in crude will likely continue to whipsaw CTAs, but we don't expect a major change in positioning from trend-followers for the time being."

WTI levels
Bulls are eyeing the 60 handle while making ground above the 200-daily moving average and testing the bear's commitments through trendline resistance and above the 50% retracement of the July swing lows and highs. Bulls are indeed pulling well away from those treacherous territories down towards the 61.8% Fibo at 51.70.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,667
  • Sep 7, 2019 7:00am Sep 7, 2019 7:00am
Quoting Ll1979
OIL PRICES END HIGHER AGAIN ON IMPROVED RISK APPETITE 6 September 2019, 23:31 Oil prices continue higher in broadly improved risk sentiment OPEC is committed to doing the heavy lifting necessary to balance markets. West Texas Intermediate crude prices were higher again on Friday, ending on Wall Street 0.82% in the green having travelled from a low of $54.84 to a high of $56.91. For October delivery, the price was 22 cents better off, or 0.4%, settle at $56.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after ending Thursday a few cents-per-barrel...
Hello Li and hope your well, excellent post, remember "Rockhopper" drilling off Argentina and finding oil, "Falkland Island Oil&Gas" was another (I bought into them) but all came to a dead end for Falkland, Rockhopper made the find, how they are are doing now I'm not sure, stopped trading shares a long time ago.
The only circle these up and coming supply countries could possibly create is a one of oversupply, presently the supply is being capped to keep the price buoyant, the world would have to take a step back in usage while trying to move forward environmentally, just my take D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,668
  • Sep 7, 2019 8:28am Sep 7, 2019 8:28am
Quoting detector
{quote} Hello Li and hope your well, excellent post, remember "Rockhopper" drilling off Argentina and finding oil, "Falkland Island Oil&Gas" was another (I bought into them) but all came to a dead end for Falkland, Rockhopper made the find, how they are are doing now I'm not sure, stopped trading shares a long time ago. The only circle these up and coming supply countries could possibly create is a one of oversupply, presently the supply is being capped to keep the price buoyant, the world would have to take a step back in usage while trying to...
Hi D hope you got a great vacation! Not familiar with Rockhopper but i do think oversupply will hit the market for a few reasons:

  1. Completing pipelines Q3/Q4 permian
  2. Increase in production but decline in bakerhuge oil rig count last couple of months.
  3. Global economic slowdown.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,669
  • Sep 7, 2019 8:53am Sep 7, 2019 8:53am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Hi D hope you got a great vacation! Not familiar with Rockhopper but i do think oversupply will hit the market for a few reasons: Completing pipelines Q3/Q4 permian Increase in production but decline in bakerhuge oil rig count last couple of months. Global economic slowdown.
Li, yeah had a very good break, the whole family needed it, thanks, Rockhopper were a private company (as I thought but google has confirmed they were listed), I think there was another listed company involved, it was big news because the drilling rig was being towed from the north sea all the way down, Falkland hit around £2.40 at the peak but drifted on no results, I've just googled and it looks like Rockhopper took them over, shrewd move in the day as they were the competition, here is the link,https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/sha...GL/news/market D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,670
  • Sep 7, 2019 9:01am Sep 7, 2019 9:01am
TC, seen some footage of the hurricane, absolutely devastating for those involved, will say a prayer and hope your family and those affected are all well,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,671
  • Sep 7, 2019 2:01pm Sep 7, 2019 2:01pm
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yes yes yes
  • #3,672
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:10am Sep 8, 2019 5:10am
#WTI / Weekly & H4 / Three Ideas
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  • #3,673
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:29am Sep 8, 2019 6:29am
The 4hr chart showing the whipsawing of late, if it carries on in the same vein, 53 should be the next target however, last few bars have negated the arrow somewhat, giving more credence for a rise to 58+, bearing in mind the whips, uncertainty and previous reactions, it could go anywhere, the daily is still down so as a play,(all in my own opinion of course) would say spike to 59 then down to 53 and below, the daily triangle formation is closing in, as is the weekly, (also down) so expect to see a bun fight soon, or I could just be plain wrong, D
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #3,674
  • Sep 8, 2019 7:05am Sep 8, 2019 7:05am
Quoting detector
TC, seen some footage of the hurricane, absolutely devastating for those involved, will say a prayer and hope your family and those affected are all well,D
Thanks, D. Dorian was a horror for the Bahamians. It stayed far enough offshore here to not impact my son's family or me.
  • #3,675
  • Edited 2:16pm Sep 8, 2019 1:02pm | Edited 2:16pm
Quoting timingchain
{quote} Thanks, D. Dorian was a horror for the Bahamians. It stayed far enough offshore here to not impact my son's family or me.
Yeah, I was just wondering if it would be able to turn without Bahamas.... I hope that was the last (of a kind) for the season...
I suspect that WS/fin market has their own detailed (micro matrix) just for oil (rigs) etc... to try to model the exposure of oil (market) to hurricanes...
Would like to model the hurricanes in the future, but it is very exhausting and would do it only for some direct market implications, trading oil on hurricane alone (unless it is very powerful and on the almost sure path towards the oil business....), still too detached to trade on that alone atm...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #3,676
  • Sep 8, 2019 6:14pm Sep 8, 2019 6:14pm
This is what ranging looks like ! EMA20 has slow oscillations across this span. The arrows correspond rather well with wave troughs and crests in EMA20.
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  • #3,677
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:34am Sep 9, 2019 1:34am
Quoting timingchain
{quote} Thanks, D. Dorian was a horror for the Bahamians. It stayed far enough offshore here to not impact my son's family or me.
Great to hear that TimingChain!
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,678
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:34am Sep 9, 2019 1:34am
Oman: Change in Saudi Oil Minister won't change OPEC+ policy
9 September 2019, 09:09

Responding to the change in the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister over the weekend, the Omani Oil Minister is quoted by Reuters, as saying that the Saudi move will not change the OPEC+ policy on oil production.
He further said that it is too early to decide on production cuts for next year.
Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud replaced Khalid Al-Falih as the new Saudi Energy Minister.
Both crude benchmarks are trending higher nearly 1% on the status-quo likely to be maintained despite the Saudi change.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,679
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:19pm Sep 9, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting timingchain
This is what ranging looks like ! EMA20 has slow oscillations across this span. The arrows correspond rather well with wave troughs and crests in EMA20. {image}
Good point. I wouldn't expect it will be easy for oil to break out of its range either. We are talking about an asset that the world relies on slightly less each day but is tangled in politics, corporate profitability etc. A break and significant trend up seems unlikely and a drop too far down might cause producers to exit. There has been a quite a strong resistance to produce less by the major players though so my money says a leg down before any legs up.
  • #3,680
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:51pm Sep 9, 2019 3:51pm
WTI remains strong. I'm not sure what the top will be.

On an hourly chart it doesn't look like it's going to stop:
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On a daily chart it looks like $57 is the resistance level it needs to break to continue this rally:
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