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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #601
  • Sep 6, 2019 5:10am Sep 6, 2019 5:10am
Crude is selling off on apparently no news. Something had to trigger it. Any ideas?
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #602
  • Sep 6, 2019 6:30am Sep 6, 2019 6:30am
Quoting EventsTrader
Crude is selling off on apparently no news. Something had to trigger it. Any ideas?
bank of russia cut their interest rate by 1/4 percent an hour ago . that's the news that moved oil. its wasn't on FF's calendar. but the technicals were setting up perfectly for this drop. look at the 30min chart head and shoulders, look at the right shoulder a perfect bear flag following the impulse down from top of the head .
  • #603
  • Sep 6, 2019 6:33am Sep 6, 2019 6:33am
Quoting Brentrading
{quote} bank of russia cut their interest rate by 1/4 percent an hour ago . that's the news that moved oil. its wasn't on FF's calendar. but the technicals were setting up perfectly for this drop. look at the 30min chart head and shoulders, look at the right shoulder a perfect bear flag following the impulse down from top of the head .
Yessir! Thank you Brentrading. That was the trigger. Crude is moving lower today if the US labor data disappoints. If not then, maybe on Powell's comments four hours later. We'll see.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #604
  • Sep 6, 2019 7:32am Sep 6, 2019 7:32am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I'm not big into technicals (anymore), but that chart looks pretty bearish. Why don't you think the price is going into the 40s? Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.
I am relaxed about recession the yield curve is just a beware sign, no numbers yet to think that it is going to happen next day. We could wait a couple of years to that happen until then we still trading oil to the upside.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #605
  • Sep 6, 2019 7:59am Sep 6, 2019 7:59am
Quoting vpn
Some resistance here... from two perspectives:{image}I also see the China situation taking a temporary breather, which should bring us down a little. I'm short.
Thanks.... NFP? Bank of Russia?
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  • #606
  • Sep 6, 2019 8:09am Sep 6, 2019 8:09am
Quoting Brentrading
{quote} bank of russia cut their interest rate by 1/4 percent an hour ago . that's the news that moved oil. its wasn't on FF's calendar. but the technicals were setting up perfectly for this drop. look at the 30min chart head and shoulders, look at the right shoulder a perfect bear flag following the impulse down from top of the head .
Does that normally affect oil alone? Or you think it's because it matched with the technicals this one occasion?
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} The market is just waiting for some cloudy economic news and oil will fall sharply. We did not see that news today. Put your positions on soon gentlemen.
You called it!
  • #607
  • Sep 6, 2019 8:40am Sep 6, 2019 8:40am
Quoting vpn
{quote} Does that normally affect oil alone? Or you think it's because it matched with the technicals this one occasion? {quote} You called it!
technicals most of the time line up with fundamentals and news is just a catalyst in most cases. its just that on technicals you cant see the big picture on small time frames.they're just for accurate entries. the key is to figure out the next wave on the weekly, daily and then 4h.... 15m and 30m are for timing.
  • #608
  • Sep 6, 2019 12:20pm Sep 6, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting Ef5
Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.
Quoting LCForex
{quote} I am relaxed about recession the yield curve is just a beware sign, no numbers yet to think that it is going to happen next day. We could wait a couple of years to that happen until then we still trading oil to the upside.
Keep an eye on certain credit spreads and you can find clues about when oil prices become painful.
  • #609
  • Sep 6, 2019 12:23pm Sep 6, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting vpn
You called it!
Thanks, I am still bullish NG and bearish oil: https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...2#post12484332

Today was a great day for that trade, I'll be following closely next week as well, fingers crossed.
  • #610
  • Sep 6, 2019 1:44pm Sep 6, 2019 1:44pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} {quote} Keep an eye on certain credit spreads and you can find clues about when oil prices become painful.
I'm with you on monitoring credit spreads, but in my experience that data is tough to come by. Do you have a good source for it?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #611
  • Sep 6, 2019 4:07pm Sep 6, 2019 4:07pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Thanks, I am still bullish NG and bearish oil: https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...2#post12484332 Today was a great day for that trade, I'll be following closely next week as well, fingers crossed.
Sounds like a smart position to take! Nicely done.
  • #612
  • Sep 8, 2019 4:49pm Sep 8, 2019 4:49pm
Crude is about to open and we could see some lower prices after the weak China data over the weekend. However, this the big news is: In Saudi Shocker, Al-Falih Ousted As Energy Minister, Replaced By MbS' Half-Brother. I'm not sure how that will impact crude at the open. I'm expecting some volatility. A retracement seems likely in the near term, possibly back below the $56 level.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #613
  • Sep 9, 2019 12:39pm Sep 9, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I'm with you on monitoring credit spreads, but in my experience that data is tough to come by. Do you have a good source for it?
A Bloomberg terminal is the only really good way or maybe straight from Markit.

The next closest thing I have found is following ETFs that try to replicate the indices. So sometimes I'll compare the IG or HY ETF performance to a UST index fund to consider spreads tightening/widening.

Examples

IG
https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/LQD

HY
https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/HYG.N
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XTXC:GR

UST
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGIT/
  • #614
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:29pm Sep 9, 2019 6:29pm
I see this thing going above $58, testing levels from late July and that will determine the next move. Bar any catalyst to throw us off course, that is.
  • #615
  • Sep 9, 2019 8:26pm Sep 9, 2019 8:26pm
I think I am going to bed down to look for 50.50
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #616
  • Sep 9, 2019 10:07pm Sep 9, 2019 10:07pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} A Bloomberg terminal is the only really good way or maybe straight from Markit. The next closest thing I have found is following ETFs that try to replicate the indices. So sometimes I'll compare the IG or HY ETF performance to a UST index fund to consider spreads tightening/widening. Examples IG https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/LQD HY https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview/HYG.N https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/XTXC:GR UST https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGIT/
If you follow those you might prefer to keep track of credit spreads on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB

Unfortunately I haven’t found anything specifically for energy companies.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #617
  • Sep 9, 2019 11:11pm Sep 9, 2019 11:11pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I'm not big into technicals (anymore), but that chart looks pretty bearish. Why don't you think the price is going into the 40s? Historically oil has done well late cycle and this time its just barely hanging in there. We might see oil in the 20s during the next recession. That would entail huge losses for energy companies so they'll probably make for a great short.
To expand on this point, I saw today the Russians are planning for a $25 scenario for next year:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-ru...VU203?rpc=401&

Oil in the 20s would bankrupt a lot of energy companies. I’m really liking this trade idea because I see the potential and nobody is talking about it yet. I need to run a stock screen to fish out the weakest companies for potential short candidates.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #618
  • Sep 10, 2019 7:40am Sep 10, 2019 7:40am
Quoting LCForex
I think I am going to bed down to look for 50.50 {image}
I hope you're right. My shorts got stopped out unfortunately thanks to NFP, Baker Hughes, inventories, and China de-escalation. :\

We'll need some Trump tweets to favor shorting, IMO. But resistance is approaching...
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  • #619
  • Sep 10, 2019 7:57am Sep 10, 2019 7:57am
Quoting vpn
{quote} I hope you're right. My shorts got stopped out unfortunately thanks to NFP, Baker Hughes, inventories, and China de-escalation. :\ We'll need some Trump tweets to favor shorting, IMO. But resistance is approaching... {image}
Do not know if I am right, I am not going to sell oil, just waiting if the price return to 50.
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #620
  • Sep 10, 2019 8:42am Sep 10, 2019 8:42am
Took an impulsive buy limit order on the M30 because it felt right... was just filled:
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Quoting LCForex
{quote} Do not know if I am right, I am not going to sell oil, just waiting if the price return to 50.
Despite that short term trade above I'm feeling short now btw. I'm doubtful it'll reach 50, but that'll be a great entry if it does.
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