Attachments: WTI Crude Oil Trading

WTI Crude Oil Trading

#3,641
Sep 5, 2019 10:20am Sep 5, 2019 10:20am

Ayax.TSS
Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 3,132 Posts

#WTI / H4 / Triangle Idea

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#3,642
Edited 11:28am Sep 5, 2019 10:22am | Edited 11:28am

Moty
Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 30,688 Posts

still in the range

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yes yes yes

#3,643
Sep 5, 2019 1:18pm Sep 5, 2019 1:18pm

auricforecas
Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Still a total mystery | 3,569 Posts

WTI Oil still look overall downtrend for me.. pretty stable, more or less, which I like... However there are many daily (up)trading opportunities...
BTW, do you guys factor changes in USD (eurusd) for example, when placing the trade or when estimating the trend etc? Because I believe this week we have a slight correction (meaning USD temp, this week or max one week more, losing some strength)

Can you afford to take that chance?

#3,644
Sep 5, 2019 3:48pm Sep 5, 2019 3:48pm

nastynatty
| Joined Aug 2019 | Status: Trader | 172 Posts

Quoting Moty

Disliked

still in the range {image} {image}

Ignored

And she came back down, like we thought she would. Bigger range than I thought but you had it right and it is still holding true.

#3,645
Sep 5, 2019 4:07pm Sep 5, 2019 4:07pm

timingchain
Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 613 Posts

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#3,646
Sep 5, 2019 4:50pm Sep 5, 2019 4:50pm

EventsTrader
Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts

Quoting Goncalo008

Disliked

Hi guys, I follow this thread since my passion for WTI started. I think we will see huge drop since china tariff started monday! API shows that no one wanted buy crude the past week. My target is 53.30.

Ignored

Welcome!

We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated

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#3,647
Sep 5, 2019 4:56pm Sep 5, 2019 4:56pm

EventsTrader
Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts

Quoting luckyvictor

Disliked

{quote} If the data is actually surprising in the opposite way, how much upside will it have, given the huge gain yesterday?

Ignored

Quoting EventsTrader

Disliked

{quote} I think there could be limited upside if last week's release is any indication. I was surprised to see how a huge surprise draw didn't have any follow through. I included it in the EIA preview, but here's a picture of the part where I mentioned it. {image}

Ignored

The data showed a bigger than expected draw across the board:

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Yet, after the initial knee jerk reaction (a big one), crude (CL) came back down and dropped below pre-data levels. It continued to drop throughout the day too. Check out the big spike on this 5M chart. But after that there wasn't any good opportunity to trade this data.

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Even though I got stopped out of my shorts because of that spike, I'm still pretty bearish on WTI. It's safe to assume going forward, at least for now, that there's some limited upside potential on the EIA data. At least that's what the last two releases are showing.

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#3,648
Sep 5, 2019 5:32pm Sep 5, 2019 5:32pm

helgastrxd
| Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 135 Posts

Quoting Goncalo008

Disliked

Hi guys, I follow this thread since my passion for WTI started. I think we will see huge drop since china tariff started monday! API shows that no one wanted buy crude the past week. My target is 53.30.

Ignored

It is hard to tell where China trade talks will be in the near future. The meetings that are being set up may ease the pressure there soon.

I definitely agree with you though that market participants are waiting for the opportunity to sell not buy. We shall just have to see if they are given the reason.

#3,649
Sep 5, 2019 10:40pm Sep 5, 2019 10:40pm

Moty
Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 30,688 Posts

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yes yes yes

#3,650
Sep 6, 2019 1:11am Sep 6, 2019 1:11am

EventsTrader
Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts

US Employment Data - September Preview - WTI could move big on the employment data and Powell's upcoming event. I just posted a preview on it. Check it out!

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#3,651
Sep 6, 2019 5:00am Sep 6, 2019 5:00am

Moty
Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 30,688 Posts

Are you ready?

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yes yes yes

#3,652
Sep 6, 2019 5:08am Sep 6, 2019 5:08am

EventsTrader
Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts

Why is WTI tanking? Any news out there? I don't see any.

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#3,653
Edited 6:13am Sep 6, 2019 5:51am | Edited 6:13am

v2vboni
Joined Sep 2015 | Status: ob-la-di, ob-la-da, life goes on... | 4,499 Posts

Quoting EventsTrader

Disliked

Why is WTI tanking? Any news out there? I don't see any.

Ignored

Looking ahead, August’s US jobs data is firmly in focus. It is expected to show that the economy added 160k jobs, marking a broadly on-trend outcome. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.7 percent, a hair above 50-year lows, while wage growth moderates a bit to print at a still-firm 3 percent on-year. US data’s recent improvement relative to forecasts hints a rosier report may well be in the cards.
Figures seen as reducing the Fed’s sense of urgency in expanding stimulus are likely to cool risk appetite. Indeed, recent improvements notwithstanding, the macro backdrop remains worrying. The US-China trade war is unresolved, the Brexit process looks muddled at best, and a slowdown in global growth started in early 2018 continues. That has markets pining for policy support.
A risk-off tilt seems likely to drive crude oil prices downward. Gold might have capitalized if the defensive were to produce the usual downward pressure on bond yields, but the scope for such a thing seems limited when the prospect of higher-than-hoped-for lending rates is itself the catalyst for weakness. Against this backdrop, a relatively flat result might be the most that the anti-fiat benchmark can hope for.

source: dailyfx

Or...

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source: oilprice

And/Or...

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Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way

#3,654
Sep 6, 2019 6:00am Sep 6, 2019 6:00am

timingchain
Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Trader | 613 Posts

Failure to break through the April downtrend line leads to retreat, along with other weak technicals and market uncertainty. Resumption of uptrend has low probability. EMA20 crossed at ~55.75.

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#3,655
Sep 6, 2019 6:32am Sep 6, 2019 6:32am

EventsTrader
Joined May 2019 | Status: iTrade | 1,838 Posts

Quoting v2vboni

Disliked

{quote} Looking ahead, August’s US jobs data is firmly in focus. It is expected to show that the economy added 160k jobs, marking a broadly on-trend outcome. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.7 percent, a hair above 50-year lows, while wage growth moderates a bit to print at a still-firm 3 percent on-year. US data’s recent improvement relative to forecasts hints a rosier report may well be in the cards. Figures seen as reducing the Fed’s sense of urgency in expanding stimulus are likely to cool risk appetite. Indeed, recent improvements...

Ignored

Thanks v2vboni.