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Spoof's Trend, Level, Signal Trading Journal

  • #41
  • Sep 5, 2019 2:49am Sep 5, 2019 2:49am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi there. Spoof will no doubt chip in when he gets online but as I am twiddling my thumbs waiting for The DAX to settle down post UK KO, I figured I'd stick something here for you. For what my opinion is worth, I would have been very cautious about taking any short there. You've had a strong push North without one single pull back yet - you are due one. Yes, it looks like you could be in range of an upper channel edge but channels are just that, channels - they flow up and down, with price quite capable of riding one edge or another without...
Many thanks for the detailled input. Guess I still have to learn that if the price doesn't show a clear turn into my direction I should get out, even at a loss. I almost got out at -0,2R; but then I waited it out, and got well burned. But still 1R, not to worry much. I still have a lot of Learning to do, and thanks again.

Spoof, if you Don't like discussing these charts (especially those from ones who have still to learn) you can delete my post. I'm just looking for a place I can actively learn and post idea's. Cheers!
  • #42
  • Edited 8:26am Sep 5, 2019 8:08am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Gold is at an old weekly support that has been rejected once already. I am short I this level breaks then I will wait for a re-test to go long. {image}
Well...that sucks. I moved my stop to break even and then got taken out by a spike up just for price to back to my take profit. This is one of those cases for not touching your stops. I am pleased that the trade did work out based on my analysis though. On the other hand my AUDNZD got stopped out and I moved my stop to 50% so that was a good move there not taking the full 1R loss that would have happened. Trade management is always one of those tricky things that we really need to sort out.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #43
  • Edited 8:43am Sep 5, 2019 8:22am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting Wenke
Hi guys. I've migrated from RH to this channel, because I think trading PA (I'm Learning, still) is more consistent on the long run then Following green and red stoplights based on indicators. I've trade RH method in July and August, and had the same problem as Spoof, winning in July and losing all of my profit in August. I think the system is a bit too arbritrary, yes it can show clear and good signals that can be profitable, but at the same time it can show those who are not. It's more or less a 50/50 chance on what you'll get. That doesn't mean...
OK..first things first. Clean up your charts. Wow. What a mess. You flat out do not need all that junk on there. There is no way you are going to be able to make good trading analyses with all that junk on your charts. Download my template. All we need are the candles themselves...they are telling the story. I might even get rid of the EMAs from the four hour charts

Well...you didn't really have any solid price action giving you a clue to short. There was no pin bar there and the inside candle set up was not very good because of the size of the mother candle. You lost this trade due to poor analysis so we move on. I would personally find a better pair to trade as well. Stick to the majors...you don't need to be trading exotic pairs.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #44
  • Edited 12:04pm Sep 5, 2019 8:49am | Edited 12:04pm
Watching GBPUSD for a trade set up. I'll be looking for a retrace down the the four hour swing level and then a price action signal to get me into the trade up to the weekly level. Once at that level we need to be cautious since price can range for a bit around these areas. Everyone has heard the saying "buy low and sell high" so waiting for the price to retrace is us buying low. We don't want to chase the price right now.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #45
  • Sep 5, 2019 9:51am Sep 5, 2019 9:51am
I added a video to post number one discussing my template, how I plot the levels, and briefly discussing the strategies I am now using.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #46
  • Sep 5, 2019 10:59am Sep 5, 2019 10:59am
Hello TheSpoof,
Thank you for this thread which is very interesting to follow you.
By cons, I do not understand everything about your video!
I am French .....
Is it possible to explain your strategy on a document?
It will be easier for me to understand
Personally, I only use 2 moving averages in 4H / D1 for my trading.
I am inspired by Scot LOWRY "DELPHIC PHENOMENON" method.
Thank you in advance for the document.
  • #47
  • Edited 3:49pm Sep 5, 2019 3:11pm | Edited 3:49pm
Huge rejection candle off a few levels (some aren't drawn) and another large candle down. Bit of a late entry...not sure how I missed the close of the rejection candle I am short now and let's see of this move continues back down to the bottom of the range. This trade can also be taken of the daily rejection candle.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #48
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:26pm Sep 5, 2019 3:26pm
Quoting TheSpoof
I am reviving this trading journal as of September 3, 2019. I will share my trades that are based on price action signals that occur around support and resistance. Below is my template and the indicators used for those interested. Here is a video discussing the template, how I determine the levels I use and briefly talking about the price action strategies I am trading. https://youtu.be/sMxYJLgAZ4Q {file}
Just watched great video
  • #49
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:57pm Sep 5, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting Ibar51
{quote} Just watched great video
Glad you liked it. Sorry about the yappy dogs in the background! Mexico
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #50
  • Sep 5, 2019 3:58pm Sep 5, 2019 3:58pm
USOUSD trade set up on the daily charts. Oil is clearly in a range so let's trade it as such. Remember, though, ranges eventually break! I'm in this on the 4 hour. A potential trade could be a sell limit placed at the mid point of the rejection candle with stop loss above the high (order might not get filled and price goes down without you, or you get filled and price keeps going up!) Alternatively, a sell stop below the low of the rejection candle with the stop just above the midpoint (aggressive and risky) or the high (conservative).
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #51
  • Sep 5, 2019 4:11pm Sep 5, 2019 4:11pm
Inside candle formed on the GBPUSD 4 hour as a potential continuation trade, but I am going to ignore this since price is very close to the weekly level since there is barely enough for a 1:1 RR if the price broke above the inside candle. I will wait and see what happens if price gets up there.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #52
  • Sep 5, 2019 4:17pm Sep 5, 2019 4:17pm
Some funky price action on the EURJPY 4 hour chart. Price has had a big rejection near the weekly swing level but not right at it. Price may come back down to the 4 hour swing level and try again for a push back up so I will wait for some confirmation that that is the case. Price has created a new high so now we wait for the higher low which will be the first indication of a potential major trend change.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #53
  • Sep 5, 2019 4:26pm Sep 5, 2019 4:26pm
AUDNZD is stuck ranging just below the weekly swing level. Many times price can get stuck at theses levels. I've taken two attempts at this area so I am just going to sit it out until there is better price action at the actual weekly swing level. Lots of upper wicks forming on these four hour candles and the daily is sitting at an inside day condition at the moment as price nears that weekly level. Price has reacted strongly downwards twice before on the dailies at this level.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #54
  • Sep 5, 2019 4:28pm Sep 5, 2019 4:28pm
Hi TS What is your take on gold broke below the 20day ema and support but did not close below Large pip bar so would expect an inside bar to form would you trade a break of the inside bar if formed or wait for further confirmation
  • #55
  • Edited 5:02pm Sep 5, 2019 4:32pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting Ibar51
Hi TS What is your take on gold broke below the 20day ema and support but did not close below Large pip bar so would expect an inside bar to form would you trade a break of the inside bar if formed or wait for further confirmation
Gold is a little funky for me at the moment. Strong daily uptrend in place so maybe something like these scenarios (daily and 4 hour)? I'm watching the 4 hour for a price action signal off of the recent swing or maybe even a retest of the lower one i.e. the daily chart scenario. Some good confluence here on the four hour...we have a swing level, we have a rejection of lower prices and a bounce off the daily 20 EMA. We need to use caution though since we are at a weekly swing level and price can go into some chop (look left).
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #56
  • Sep 5, 2019 5:46pm Sep 5, 2019 5:46pm
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Gold is a little funky for me at the moment. Strong daily uptrend in place so maybe something like these scenarios (daily and 4 hour)? I'm watching the 4 hour for a price action signal off of the recent swing or maybe even a retest of the lower one i.e. the daily chart scenario. Some good confluence here on the four hour...we have a swing level, we have a rejection of lower prices and a bounce off the daily 20 EMA. We need to use caution though since we are at a weekly swing level and price can go into some chop (look left). {image} {image}...
Thank you good take especially the look left always forget too.
  • #57
  • Sep 6, 2019 12:14pm Sep 6, 2019 12:14pm
Oil trade coming back against my short. Ahh...the market

Always this
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #58
  • Edited 1:36pm Sep 6, 2019 1:17pm | Edited 1:36pm
I manually closed my oil trade for a small loss. Reason being is that sellers couldn't seem to push the price down very far before the buyers came in with a vengeance. We could be getting a breakout of that resistance level soon. That rejection candle pushed deep above that level much deeper than the least few times it was reached. If the resistance breaks I'll be looking for a retest as support to get long. Finished this week down 0.4R
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #59
  • Sep 6, 2019 1:33pm Sep 6, 2019 1:33pm
Set and forget or manage the stops? This is a real sticking point with me right now and that is to either let the trade run its course, win or loss, or move the stop to break even after a period of time. Had I left this trade alone it was easily a 2R trade down to the weekly swing level or a 4R down to the next 4 hour swing and it even broke through that. But I moved my stop to just over break even and the little retracement took me out before price went back in my direction. Now, having said that, I have saved myself from several full losses by moving to break even or 50% of initial risk as price came back and would have taken out the initial stop. This is where the dilemma exists
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #60
  • Sep 6, 2019 1:49pm Sep 6, 2019 1:49pm
Quoting TheSpoof
Set and forget or manage the stops? This is a real sticking point with me right now and that is to either let the trade run its course, win or loss, or move the stop to break even after a period of time. Had I left this trade alone it was easily a 2R trade down to the weekly swing level or a 4R down to the next 4 hour swing and it even broke through that. But I moved my stop to just over break even and the little retracement took me out before price went back in my direction. Now, having said that, I have saved myself from[/highlight]...
It's a perennial issue. For whatever my opinion is worth, moving your hard stop is generally something I frown upon personally.

Would you consider the option of counter-trading at the level of your BE point? This way you would keep your Dead Man Stop but would benefit by adding to the bank as / if it moved back against you.

If it doesn't go all the way back to that DMS, then once you have a solid sign that price isn't going to stop you out and begins to move in your direction again, you close out your retrace-counter trade.

There is even the potential to enter a second trade in your original direction at a better price.

However, the downside is that obviously, this is not set-and-forget but a managed trade now. Though is it any more so than moving your stop? I guess so but is the upside worth the downside? Only the individual trader can decide that one.

I haven't just pulled this out my a** by the way, this is how I run my HTF trades (and many of my other trades come to that), as it means it is as near-as-dammit an ''always-in'' technique - something like the (in)famous millipede technique.

Maybe something to think about. Or not. As always, your call.
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