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Spoof's Trend, Level, Signal Trading Journal

  • #21
  • Sep 3, 2019 11:12am Sep 3, 2019 11:12am
Last one for today. GBPJPY trade based on the break of the low of the pin bar rejecting the level. Profit target set to 1.5R with stop loss place above the pin bar high. I had some losses unfortunately on Australian news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY+H4.png Size: 90 KB
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #22
  • Sep 3, 2019 1:20pm Sep 3, 2019 1:20pm
Placed a sell stop on the break of the inside candle in the direction of the trend with stop just above the halfway point of the mother candle. I will also be looking for a sell signal at the resistance level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #23
  • Sep 3, 2019 1:38pm Sep 3, 2019 1:38pm
Watching this area on GBPUSD very closely for a signal that price is rejecting this level and back down with the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #24
  • Edited 8:18am Sep 4, 2019 8:00am | Edited 8:18am
Another successful trade on AUDJPY. Trade premise was the break of the inside candle that formed near the support level. The pin bar was a false breakout of the inside candle and added extra confluence for this trade. I placed a buy limit at the top of the inside candle range to catch a retracement back to that area which so often happens. This allows for a better RR since I could place the stop below the pinbar mid point. I will now be waiting for a retrace back to the new level that has been broken for a potential long trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY+H4.png Size: 81 KB
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #25
  • Sep 4, 2019 8:29am Sep 4, 2019 8:29am
Quoting TheSpoof
Another successful trade on AUDJPY. Trade premise was the break of the inside candle that formed near the support level. The pin bar was a false breakout of the inside candle and added extra confluence for this trade. I placed a buy limit at the top of the inside candle range to catch a retracement back to that area which so often happens. This allows for a better RR since I could place the stop below the pinbar mid point. I will now be waiting for a retrace back to the new level that has been broken for a potential long trade. {image}
Thanks for analysis TheSpoof,
I wanna say that this trading style(levels and PA) is a reliable and classic style of trading and I like the logic behind the strategy

Thank you ...
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #26
  • Sep 4, 2019 8:48am Sep 4, 2019 8:48am
Quoting TheSpoof
Another successful trade on AUDJPY. Trade premise was the break of the inside candle that formed near the support level. The pin bar was a false breakout of the inside candle and added extra confluence for this trade. I placed a buy limit at the top of the inside candle range to catch a retracement back to that area which so often happens. This allows for a better RR since I could place the stop below the pinbar mid point. I will now be waiting for a retrace back to the new level that has been broken for a potential long trade. {image}
Hi TS Can you explain how the EMAS helped in this trade
  • #27
  • Sep 4, 2019 9:53am Sep 4, 2019 9:53am
Quoting Ibar51
{quote} Hi TS Can you explain how the EMAS helped in this trade
EMAs where flattening out which indicated a potential ranging market so there may be a good chance of a bounce off the support. The big rejection candle off the support and false break of the inside bar where powerful enough signals to take a long position back to the resistance level above.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #28
  • Edited 1:16pm Sep 4, 2019 9:55am | Edited 1:16pm
Guilty as charged and lessons learned. No more indicator trading for me.

https://www.theforexguy.com/forex-indicators-failure/
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #29
  • Sep 4, 2019 12:07pm Sep 4, 2019 12:07pm
This was and is now again the basic flow chart I use for determining whether to place a trade or not.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #30
  • Sep 4, 2019 1:13pm Sep 4, 2019 1:13pm
This is the only trade I am in at the moment. It was initiated off a break of the the swing low candle's high (red arrow). I have moved the stop to 0.5R based on the false break of the inside candle and some stalling at the last swing high a bounce down to the last major swing low could happen and I don't want to take a full 1R loss if I don't have to.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD+H4.png Size: 85 KB
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #31
  • Edited 1:36pm Sep 4, 2019 1:21pm | Edited 1:36pm
Quoting TheSpoof
This was and is now again the basic flow chart I use for determining whether to place a trade or not. {image}
NZDCAD H4 reacting on Support level, and along with inside bar breakout we could have a potential BUY trade setup?WE ARE WITH TREND AS WELL ...
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #32
  • Edited 1:53pm Sep 4, 2019 1:41pm | Edited 1:53pm
PAIRS I AM CURRENTLY TRADING

These are the pairs I am currently trading: AUDNZD, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USOUSD and XAUUSD. The reason I have chosen these particular pairs is an attempt to avoid over trading and entering trades on many pairs that are potentially correlated based on the base pair (gold and oil are obviously tied to the USD). These pairs give me exposure to all the large currencies except for CAD and CHF. The CADCHF pair is just not necessary to trade at the end of the day - plenty of opportunities on the ones I have chosen.

I had four losses in a row and all the pairs had the USD involved. The idea is that if the USD is moving, particularly because of a news spike, it is likely to cause moves on all the pairs involving the USD so why don't I just pick one nice pair with the USD and trade it? Had I been in only one pair involving the USD I would have only suffered one loss instead of four. Now of course, a guy could split the total risk into those four trades in case such a thing happens, but that is just too much effort for me to bother with.

So I chose the GBPUSD as my exposure to the USD and I also get exposure to the GBP. I don't need to add GBPJPY to the mix, for example, because I already have exposure to the GBP with the GBPUSD and I have exposure to the JPY via EURJPY. The EURJPY gives me my exposure to the Euro so I don't really need to be trading other Euro pairs. If the USD moves I'll catch it on the GBPUSD and vice versa with the GBP without affecting my other trades. If the Euro moves then I'll catch it on the EURJPY and vice versa with the JPY without affecting my other pairs - again, particularly on news spikes.

Now, choosing these pairs may not get me into the weakest/strongest pairing and in that case the pair will likely just be in a range and will either not trade the pair for a bit or trade the price action off the range boundaries if the range is suitable. I am currently back to the four hour charts since that is what I was trading profitably for several months (before my mental lapse with TMMS) and with the four hour charts comes plenty of trade opportunities which also means the potential for over trading and information over load which need to be avoided like the plague. The name of the game here is quality over quantity. I only need +2R net per week to pay the bills so I don't need to be spraying trades around like a machine gunner. Trading too many pairs on the four hour charts is just that.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #33
  • Sep 4, 2019 1:42pm Sep 4, 2019 1:42pm
Quoting drsa1970
{quote} NZDCAD H4 reacting on Support level, and along with inside bar breakout we could have a potential BUY trade setup?WE ARE WITH TREND AS WELL ...
Not sure what the NZDCAD is doing Can you post a chart?
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #34
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:06pm Sep 4, 2019 2:06pm
Quoting thespoof
{quote} not sure what the nzdcad is doing Can you post a chart?
this is the chart for nzdcad
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD.jpg Size: 167 KB
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #35
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:22pm Sep 4, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting drsa1970
{quote} this is the chart for nzdcad {image}
Yup...something is going to happen there.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #36
  • Sep 4, 2019 2:42pm Sep 4, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Yup...something is going to happen there.
MY NZ/cad chart is different the large bear candle is the Cad rate announcement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37
  • Edited 3:12pm Sep 4, 2019 2:57pm | Edited 3:12pm
Spoof:
On below chart (GOLD H4) ,is it a good setup to wait for price to retest the resistant level and the enter the market?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD.jpg Size: 349 KB
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #38
  • Sep 4, 2019 5:29pm Sep 4, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting drsa1970
Spoof: On below chart (GOLD H4) ,is it a good setup to wait for price to retest the resistant level and the enter the market? {image}
Gold is at an old weekly support that has been rejected once already. I am short I this level breaks then I will wait for a re-test to go long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD+H4.png Size: 96 KB
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #39
  • Sep 5, 2019 1:42am Sep 5, 2019 1:42am
Hi guys.

I've migrated from RH to this channel, because I think trading PA (I'm Learning, still) is more consistent on the long run then Following green and red stoplights based on indicators. I've trade RH method in July and August, and had the same problem as Spoof, winning in July and losing all of my profit in August. I think the system is a bit too arbritrary, yes it can show clear and good signals that can be profitable, but at the same time it can show those who are not. It's more or less a 50/50 chance on what you'll get.
That doesn't mean to me that I'll throw all indicators in the ocean. Right now I'm fooling around trading price action but on a chart with loads of indicators that can give me a certain bias (RSI, STO, EMA's and Price Channels). I have no check-list of conditions but the indicators can show me what the price is doing; for example the EMA bands you used in your latest system, Spoof, can show me trending and ranging conditions. The Price Channels in combination with STO and RSI can show me zones where the price is overbought or oversold, so I am carefull to follow the trend, or could catch a retracement.

This is all still new to me, and forgive me if I'm not in the right place to post this, but I'm looking for a room where I could discuss PA analysis. Don't know, Spoof, if you are looking for that to happen here?

Here I have a trade I made a day ago. Failed on, got stopped 1R loss. My idea was that the price was ranging, the price got rejected on the resistance level once again, it touched the first upper price channel (oversold) and it showed an Inside bar. Turned out I was clearly wrong. Anyone has a different idea?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40
  • Edited 2:52am Sep 5, 2019 2:24am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting Wenke
Hi guys. I've migrated from RH to this channel, because I think trading PA (I'm Learning, still) is more consistent on the long run then Following green and red stoplights based on indicators. I've trade RH method in July and August, and had the same problem as Spoof, winning in July and losing all of my profit in August. I think the system is a bit too arbritrary, yes it can show clear and good signals that can be profitable, but at the same time it can show those who are not. It's more or less a 50/50 chance on what you'll[/highlight]...
Hi there. Spoof will no doubt chip in when he gets online but as I am twiddling my thumbs waiting for The DAX to settle down post UK KO, I figured I'd stick something here for you.

For what my opinion is worth, I would have been very cautious about taking any short there. You've had a strong push North without one single pull back yet - you are due one. Yes, it looks like you could be in range of an upper channel edge but channels are just that, channels - they flow up and down, with price quite capable of riding one edge or another without turning back inside, especially on the higher time frames (the lower may indeed show an up-and-down motion but not up high).

The Downside potential is large, so I'd see no harm in holding off a bar or two to see what was going to happen next (at your entry point). If you are getting a short confirmed, then you will have plenty of time to get on board but if you get a continuation, then you've saved burned fingers.

Anyway, once those (or even the first alone) had printed, I definitely wouldn't be getting on board any short, as look at those wicks. Also, you must be clear on one thing. Inside bars are just as often continuation signals as reversals, if anything, more so.

You then get a series of Pretty Maids all in a Row and finally a Pin-Bar (long Lower Wick) / Inside Bar combination and that, my friend, is very definitely a continuation signal and a very powerful indication of a possible trade entry (here Long).

Added to this information, if you look left, you will see that price is in fact in the process of a Supply Zone clear out (basically price is closing progressively over resistance and not getting back below). I'd say that if you dropped a fib over that up move, you'd see price riding a level.

Oh and one other thing, as far as trying to spot reversals, there is a reason that pro traders call the RSI the Really Stupid Indicator.

Hope some of that makes some kind of sense and Spoof, if you want to bin this as a distraction, then please feel free to do so.
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