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The Swamp

  • #40,521
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:17pm Aug 30, 2019 2:17pm
gold and spx, caught everything... bonds too but they still havent even moved....

that one is taking a while (short bonds).... its a multi week swing trade
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40,522
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:42pm Aug 30, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} LOL see, assumptions are the root of all evil (actually the love of money is but i like making jokes) CUT ME SOME SLACK I HAVEN'T BEEN HERE IN YEARS {quote} 1000 can be reached by end of the day, even 1021, not saying it will though {quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1Hgpm5VYF0 MY DAUGTER***
Welcome back!!.. Glad to see your posts here...
  • #40,523
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:53pm Aug 30, 2019 2:53pm
its brutal but its true...that is why risk management is the key to survive in the market.... stop loss or position size management... use whatever works for you..
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  • #40,524
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:59pm Aug 30, 2019 2:59pm
Good.. my first 10 pips earned for this cycle... out 0988 from 0978.... my next TP from 0986 to 0996...
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  • #40,525
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:00pm Aug 30, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 4h holds sometimes. sometimes 2233 is enough too. The trick is to get below 2155 and it becomes R. By closing the day below it. The 4h 2220 would need to hold the close below it. poking a hole in it, to 2233. could still close below it. {image}
GU dont want to give up the bootie. 2155 is not holding atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,526
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:15pm Aug 30, 2019 3:15pm
COT report for the week ended on Aug 27:

Institutions increased their bearish bets slightly this week. The closing price on the reported day was 1.1077

Euro shorts decreased by 827 contracts. Net short positions now at 38,804

4,996 long contracts were added, 5,823 short contracts were added while price hit 1.1153 high on Aug 22nd and 1.1085 low on Aug 27th.
Now Longs total 173,451 contracts vs shorts total 212,255 contracts

45% long exposure vs 55% short exposure, which no change from the previous week
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  • #40,527
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:17pm Aug 30, 2019 3:17pm
Hi gatorinla

GBPUSD closing month as doji between 78.6 and 88.6 monthly chart any thoughts
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ex nihilo
  • #40,528
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:30pm Aug 30, 2019 3:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} GU dont want to give up the bootie. 2155 is not holding atm.
For you...

GbpUsd COT report for the week ended on Aug 27:

Sterling bearish bets trimmed this week. The closing price on the reported day was 1.2287

Sterling shorts decreased by 3,390 contracts. Net short positions now at 89,028 contracts

4,738 long contracts were added, 1,348 short contracts were added while price hit 1.2309 high on Aug 27th and 1.2108 low on Aug 22nd.
Now Longs total 38,143 contracts vs shorts total 127,171 contracts

25% long exposure vs 77% short exposure, which 2% increased in longs and 2% decreased in shorts from the previous week
  • #40,529
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:48pm Aug 30, 2019 3:48pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} For you... GbpUsd COT report for the week ended on Aug 27: Sterling bearish bets trimmed this week. The closing price on the reported day was 1.2287 Sterling shorts decreased by 3,390 contracts. Net short positions now at 89,028 contracts 4,738 long contracts were added, 1,348 short contracts were added while price hit 1.2309 high on Aug 27th and 1.2108 low on Aug 22nd. Now Longs total 38,143 contracts vs shorts total 127,171 contracts 25% long exposure vs 77% short exposure, which 2% increased in longs and 2% decreased in shorts from the...
Thank you for this data. COT only represents futures contracts though, OTC is so much larger. but I guess its a decent measure

Its much more reliable for treasuries and stock indexes though
As you can see theres ~250 billion in open interest just on the E-mini SPX alone
Not sure how long I'll stick around here, but I am enjoying FF for now
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40,530
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:53pm Aug 30, 2019 3:53pm
Very annoying move indeed. I hate missing shorts, but I hardly ever buy EU and on a day when I felt 1.100 was going to hold, boom! I just got back online to see that price touched 0963. Wow! That was some bloody fall. My lowest buy was 0980. Just closed most of them here at 0993 in some profit. This pair can be funny. After this new low watch it spike again to some high as though nothing happened.

I had all the clues with that red Monday D1 candle with high volume (higher than the volume of that of the preceeding Friday Trump spike D1 candle)and the everyday rejection at daily pivot which threw price further down, plus the spike yesterday which was quickly sold down. Note to self: next time short it or stay out. The trend won today.
  • #40,531
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:56pm Aug 30, 2019 3:56pm
Quoting Boulder
Good.. my first 10 pips earned for this cycle... out 0988 from 0978.... my next TP from 0986 to 0996... {image}
close out some positions Euro 0986 at 0993 here +7.. and close Uchf 0.99 at 0.9897..+3.. ..so I pay less swaps over the weekend ( triple swaps in Oanda).. I will add those positions back next week..
  • #40,532
  • Aug 30, 2019 4:44pm Aug 30, 2019 4:44pm
Quoting Oc6oph
Hi gatorinla GBPUSD closing month as doji between 78.6 and 88.6 monthly chart any thoughts {image}
the 4h, 6h,and 12h closed pa on the bear side. While the day closed above its 2155. Eg may start to inch up since it closed above week 9028.x.. The month and week are bearish for gu. While the day still closed above 2155. I expect it to turn bearish. The timing is the larger question. The 1155 number will change slightly. Sunday to 1153. A stronger trend indication is 2016 (ny day closed below). A day closing below these 2 looks bearish..It just may take some time to do it. The first step is keeping pa below the 4h, 6h, 12h, then close a day below 1153..After 2016 is the one to beat.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,533
  • Aug 30, 2019 5:03pm Aug 30, 2019 5:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the 4h, 6h,and 12h closed pa on the bear side. While the day closed above its 2155. Eg may start to inch up since it closed above week 9028.x.. The month and week are bearish. While the day still closed above 2155. I expect it to turn bearish. The timing is the larger question. The 1155 number will change slightly. Sunday to 1153. A stronger trend indication is 2016. A day closing below these 2 looks bearish..It just may take some time to do it. The first step is keeping pa below the 4h, 6h, 12h, then close a day below 1153..After 2016 is...
Thank you, I agree that H4 is bearish. To me price getting above 2200 increases chance of further upside. Also price closed somewhat doji at 50fib. I believe it could bounce at 61.8fib 2126. I’m not in GBPUSD atm currently holding EG shorts
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ex nihilo
  • #40,534
  • Aug 30, 2019 5:04pm Aug 30, 2019 5:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the 4h, 6h,and 12h closed pa on the bear side. While the day closed above its 2155. Eg may start to inch up since it closed above week 9028.x.. The month and week are bearish for gu. While the day still closed above 2155. I expect it to turn bearish. The timing is the larger question. The 1155 number will change slightly. Sunday to 1153. A stronger trend indication is 2016 (ny day closed below). A day closing below these 2 looks bearish..It just may take some time to do it. The first step is keeping pa below the 4h, 6h, 12h, then close a...
I need to spend some time with it more. LC closed below last week. But not below the lowest week 2123..Someone else may find the day.. I dont have time atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,535
  • Aug 30, 2019 7:06pm Aug 30, 2019 7:06pm
Anybody got a Fix for the New FIFO RULE (other then moving abroad)
Now we can't set TP (even on the 1st Entry) if you have two ORDERS of the same SIZE
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #40,536
  • Aug 30, 2019 7:13pm Aug 30, 2019 7:13pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Anybody got a Fix for the New FIFO RULE (other then moving abroad) Now we can't set TP (even on the 1st Entry) if you have two ORDERS of the same SIZE
I just use different trading size to trade nowadays....its a very annoying rule...,...
  • #40,537
  • Aug 30, 2019 7:39pm Aug 30, 2019 7:39pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Anybody got a Fix for the New FIFO RULE (other then moving abroad) Now we can't set TP (even on the 1st Entry) if you have two ORDERS of the same SIZE
For Oanda, I just screw with the units a bit. So, 1 lot = $10/pip = 100000 units OR 100001 units OR 100002 units, etc...
A snails pace wins the race :-)
  • #40,538
  • Edited 8:59pm Aug 31, 2019 8:32pm | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting ill_be_back
Anybody got a Fix for the New FIFO RULE (other then moving abroad) Now we can't set TP (even on the 1st Entry) if you have two ORDERS of the same SIZE
Move abroad. I pay the most insanely low fees you could imagine. My spread on gold is about 10-12 cents and fee is 3 cents. I couldn't trade my strategy as well if I had to type in each take profit, or drag it. Easier to just hedge and then pull off the hedge for a final scalp at the end of the day, then close everything and pay no swaps.

EURUSD spread is 0.2 (a small order takes out the 0.1 typically) and fee 0.2 (per RT, not per side)

Also in case people were curious, EURUSD interbank has 2000-3000 lots of liquidity within 1 pip on both sides (compare this to 300-500 on both sides of ~0.01%, 1 tick, on the ES)

ES the best product to trade until you are trading larger than 50 million $ positions

IMO

But ideally you just learn to monitor and refresh bids and offers on the biggest 3-5 markets at once, its tough but with focus can be done
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40,539
  • Aug 31, 2019 9:24pm Aug 31, 2019 9:24pm
Not sure what the deal is with being afraid to go abroad. This idea that the US is the only place where your money is safe is a little bit absurd. Can't really recall the last time I heard a foreign FX broker running away with funds

For Forex inter bank or access to inter bank liquidity is the best, for other markets futures (CME) are the best
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40,540
  • Sep 1, 2019 7:42am Sep 1, 2019 7:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} btw Dorian expected to be a cat 4 (possibly a cat 5). Palm beach would get its ass kicked. Potential to be one of the worst ever. Because it may approach slow to 4 mph. That powerful, (winds 140) moving slow would dismate whenever it hit. That slow would have several high tide cycles. Mar a lago looks to take a hit.
Now a cat 5. Experts are saying a Florida landfall is diminishing. They say it should go up the East coastline. A cat 5 does what it wants. Sitting over warm water, and not moving, it grows larger. Creating its own steering patterns. Even w/o a eye landfall a large cat 5 can do a lot of damage.

RIP Nash Roberts. You made fools of the experts many times.

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