WTI Crude Oil Trading

already out

WTI slumps to $55 area, looks to snap three-day winning streak
30 August 2019, 19:07

 

1. Russia's Novak says cuts in August will be lower than agreed with OPEC+.
2. Hurricane Dorian expected to weigh on US demand.
3. Baker Hughes' oil rig count coming up next in the session.

Easing concerns over a protracted US-China trade conflict and its potential negative impact on the global energy demand outlook allowed crude oil prices to gain traction earlier this week. Moreover, the weekly crude oil stock report published by the US Energy Information Administration showed a draw of more than 10 million barrels last week and provided an additional boost.
Rally loses steam on Friday
After testing the $53 on Monday, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose all the way up to $56.86 but failed to preserve its bullish momentum. With the latest comments from Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and fears over the impact of Hurricane Dorian, which continues to gather strength and could hit Florida over the weekend, on the US energy demand forced the WTI to make a sharp U-turn on Friday.
Ahead of the Baker Hughes Energy Services' weekly oil rig count data, the WTI is trading near $55, erasing 2.8% on a daily basis.
RIA and Interfax news agencies today quoted Novak saying that Russia's oil output cuts in August will slightly stay below those agreed with OPEC+. "Russia is aiming for full compliance with the deal despite a slight increase in output in August," Novak further added but the selling pressure on crude oil remained intact.

55.25 should recover, if so this drop may well be the bulls fishing for some easy pips and I think the bullish out look would contnue.

Any thoughts?

I had to give the current H4 bar a Red Arrow since it breached EMA20. This typically results in a few to many days staying below EMA20, but with Dorian and a long weekend, its is quite uncertain.

Did the Scots invent shortbread or just develop it to the point of ultimate perfection?

As the poker pros say, it's a tough way to make an easy living.

Is difficult to analyze now, but I would like to participate more in this thread and hopefully people can all share their thoughts.

Looking at the big picture, it is in consolidation period, and doing range bouncing.

The downtrend may come to an end, or at least at small break because there was a higher low made on 23rd, however it can't make a higher high and got hit at 56.85, the supply and demand zone.

In the near short term (but is Friday today, and who knows what will happen in the weekend) which is Monday, the movement should still be weak, there is a chance it will go to 54.

I am slightly bearish in this consolidation period.

With the price moved to South by this much today, will the big player buy again very soon?

Yes I'm looking a wee bit longer term TC as you say another dip would not surprise but looking longer term (volume) I still have a bull head on if 55.25 survives

Shortbread ? we're still working on it

Thin home made is best with a wee cup of tea

HI LV , I just do my own thing mate, if it works out then good if not I re-think.

The markets are always changing and so is my outlook.

So I figure cetain levels and take signals from there.

If you are new to trading this can seem bewildering, it was for me

Regardless of who say what the markets are a gamble unless you have deep pockets.

EDIT.... or you play within your means

Welcome to the thread. It's always a positive to get other traders thoughts and insights. I look forward to discussing the profits we will accumulate.


CL looks like it's done for the day. I'd be surprised if we got another leg down. Volume is drying up too. But with the week we just had, don't take my word for it. After it tanked earlier it had some follow through, but it's looking like it's staying in a range until close.

WTI PRICES PLUMMET OVER 4% IN FRIDAY FOLLOWING OPEC OUTPUT CUT NOISE / DXY ABOVE 99.00
30 August 2019, 22:43

 

1. The DXY broke highest levels since May 2017 and WTI extends to a 4% decline.
2. Russia's oil output cuts in August will be slightly below those agreed.

West Texas Intermediate oil prices have taken a knock, coincidently into month-end and as the US Dollar perks up nicely through the to test the 99 handle for the highest level printed at 99.02 since May 2017.
Output cuts not to be taken for granted

WTI spot prices are currently trading at $54.94 having travelled from a high of $56.70 to a low of $54.57. On strictly oil-related news, oil output cuts were thrown into question when Reuters reported that Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Russia's oil output cuts in August will be slightly below those agreed to under the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. When the only major supportive factor for oil is put into doubt, your going to see lower prices which came into fruition today - a 4% drop was marked up since yesterday's highs towards the 57 handle. As for futures, October West Texas Intermediate oil lost $1.61, or 2.8%, to settle at $55.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Prices firmly in whipsaw territory

However, analysts at TD Securities argued that the supply-side fundamentals remain positive for the energy market, with the latest DOE data pointing to tighter supply which had seen CTAs turn buyers across WTI, Brent, gasoline and heating oil. However, they also noted that buying remains on thin ice. "Momentum signals across the complex are pointing to weak buying, with prices all firmly in whipsaw territory which could see the algos return to sellers again next week as prices remain range-bound for the most part."

WTI levels
Bulls capitulated on Friday and the price action has left the 60 handle back in the rearview mirror. When trading below the 200-day moving average, the bears are back in control and the 52 handle and the 61.8% Fibo at 51.70 come into focus again.

Hello, traders!
So, what I see and what I expect:
1. The box becomes smaller, range 250 pips, between 54,25 and 56, 75. That's really good, we can forecast a good move 500 pips up or down.
2. Friday move down I consider as fixing longs, but it doesn't mean that we have sellers. It will be clear on Monday-Tuesday
3. In the whole, I expect more sell than buy, but I have no confirmation yet, so I am going to look for price's behavior near 55.50-55.75. If it will be weak ranging than I will take short with small stop loss, because there is risk that the price is in uptrend.

Risk management for the next week - don't trade without stops and don't trade martingale in September, oil can start trend moving.

Only in September?

Red Arrow on the H4 chart was confirmed. The October and April downtrends on D1 chart (#3548) remain intact. Outlook is negative unless the April downtrend is breached.

ha-ha martin can be profitable in range and loose money in trend.

At least we've closed above that trend line, sub 54.97/73 would signal more bear tho

Volume shifts again to 55 so could be bearish below here.

Initial upside target 55.50 if the bulls are up for it.

Good luck

Great posts, given up trying to push the like button with sausage fingers so consider all liked, without being at my charts, still think the daily leading the way down, think the recent rise was just a pullback of the down trend, now back to my sangria, olé D

I agree with detector here. Recent strength in crude is unlikely to continue. Since hitting those 2019 back in April, it's continued lower.

US OIL & CL 10/19