Daily Forex analysis by Followme

#Economics #USD #analysis
#US #TreasuryYield curve continued to invert on Tuesday with the spread between the 10- and two-year yields falling to -5 basis points, the lowest level since 2007.
The inversion, where long-term borrowing costs fall below the short-term ones, is widely considered an advance warning of an #impending#recession. Curve inversions have preceded US recessions of the past 50 years.
Some observers thought the curve inversion is not a reliable indicator anymore. Because the #US #bonds are currently yielding more than their #G7 #counterparts. So, the US bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, tend to attract #overseas demand.
Also, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight.
The US #ConferenceBoard said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index (#CCI) slipped to 135.1 this month from a slightly upwardly revised 135.8 in July. However, the survey’s present situation index rose to 177.2, the highest reading since November 2000.
Further, the Conference Board survey’s labor market differential jumped to 39.4 in August from 33.1 in July, indicating a potential drop in the jobless rate.
So, the recession fears appear overblown as the US consumer is still holding up strong and the labor market is holding tight. #followme #socialtrading
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[08.29] #analysis #forex #JPY
The #USDJPY pair came under some renewed #selling #pressure on Thursday and eroded a part of the previous session's positive move, back closer to weekly #tops.

The pair continued with its struggle to capitalize on this week's goodish rebound from multi-year lows and gain any strong follow-through traction beyond 200-hour SMA resistance near the 106.20-25 region.

A combination of factors benefitted JPY
As investors turned bleak on the prospect of a trade-war breakthrough any time soon, concerns over the global economic growth continued benefitting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and capped the major.

Market worries were evident from the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, which coupled with the inversion of the US #BondYield curve, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and exerted some pressure.

The Japanese Yen was further supported by the Bank of Japan (#BoJ) board member Suzuki's comments, saying that the economy not showing signs of #recession and that they do not need to #ease further now.

Meanwhile, the #downside seemed limited, at least for the time being, as investors now seemed to refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's important release of revised US Q2 #GDP growth figures.

So, it will be #prudent to wait for a strong follow-through momentum in either direction before positioning for the pair's near-term trajectory amid the recent escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. #followme #socialtrading

08.30
#analysisi #forex #GBPUSD
#GBP was expected to weaken yesterday, and break of the solid 1.2150 support was not expected. There was another support at 1.2180. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2172 during late NY hours before settling on a soft note at 1.2182. The immediate #risk still appears to be tilted to the downside, and for today, a breach of 1.2150 is not ruled out. That said, lackluster momentum suggests the next support at 1.2125 is unlikely to be challenged (this level is followed by solid support at 1.2100). On the upside, only a move above 1.2250 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased (minor resistance is at 1.2225).
#Next 1-3 weeks, #GBP is likely to probe the #top of the expected 1.2150/1.2380 range first. After touching a one-month high of 1.2310 on Tuesday (27 Aug), GBP plummeted on the back #Brexit headlines and came close to the bottom of the expected range at 1.2150 (low of 1.2156). While the positive underlying tone has been dented, we continue to view the current movement as part of a consolidation phase.
So, after yesterday’s price action, GBP would likely trade at a lower range of 1.2100/1.2300 in the coming days. #FOLLOWME #SocialTrading

#WeekAhead
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Here are the calendar highlights for this week:
(GMT TIME ZONE)

Monday
01:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
01:00 JPY Japan Vehicle Sales y/y
03:00 TRY Turkey GDP y/y
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI
04:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday
04:30 AUD RBA Rate Statement
04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
07:00 ECB's Nominated President Lagarde speech
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI m/m
13:45 USD Markit PMI data (Aug)
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)
21:00 US Fed’s Rosengren (hawk, dissenter) speech


Wednesday
01:30 JPY BoJ's Kataoka speech
01:30 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
08:30 GBP Services PMI
09:00 EUR Eurozone retail sales m/m
11:00 EUR ECB's Lane speech
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
14:00 CAD Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision
15:15 CAD BoC Press Conference
18:00 USD Fed releases Beige Book


Thursday
05:45 CHF Q2 GDP q/q
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (Aug)
13:45 USD Markit Services PMI data (Aug)
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
14:30 GBP BOE’s Tenreyro speaks in Frankfurt
15:45 CAD BOC Schembri give economic progress report

Friday
06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production m/m
07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices m/m
09:00 EUR Q2 Final GDP q/q
12:30 USD Non-Farm Payroll Report, Unemployment Rate and Wage Data
12:30 CAD Employment Change and Unemployment Rate
14:00 CAD IVEY PMI
16:30 Fed's Chair Powell speech
16:30 SNB's Chairman Jordan speech


The US-China #TradeWar remains tense, as certain tariffs kick in and will start to weigh on the US economy. Continued deterioration with Chinese manufacturing data also has #global #recession concerns on high alert and have markets bracing for the next wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Markets remain firmly focused on the #ECB’s September 12th meeting and September 18th #FOMC decision, but we can’t overlook a plethora of# rate decisions that will likely signal continued additional #RateCuts are coming and stimulus is just around the corner. The #RBA is expected to remain on hold for just one month, while the #BOC and #Riksbank are expected to deliver dovish messages that will see them join the global #RateCutting club.

#GBP #Brexit #BorisJohnson will suspend parliament, commencing between 9th and 12th September (tbc) until the Queen’s speech on 14th October. The move leaves MPs that want to block no-deal with little time to do so and increases the chance of no-deal Brexit. The next week could, therefore, be action-packed and full of surprises. Massive swings in the pound look almost guaranteed, with there being particular vulnerability to the downside if government fails to block no-deal or bring down the government.

#AUD The #RBA meeting on Tuesday could be another one on pause mode, with market pricing only assigning a 10% chance of a 25 bps cut from the current record low of 1%. The last set of employment data was robust, with solid jobs growth and a stable unemployment rate at 5.2%. There is a slight risk of a surprise cut, but more likely we could get a more dovish tone to the statement. Q2 GDP data on Wednesday could spring a positive surprise, with latest estimates suggesting a slight improvement to +0.5% q/q from +0.4%. A dovish statement or a surprise cut would pile additional pressure on an already weak Aussie dollar. It’s fallen vs the US dollar for the past six weeks. Other G-7 Q2 data has been flat to negative, so positive growth could be a boon for AUD.

#analysis #forex #socialtrading #followme
The #EURUSD pair bounced from the mentioned low ahead of the London fix, heading into the Asian opening trading in the 1.0970 region. The pair retains the #bearish stance, with an upward corrective movement only likely if the pair firms up beyond 1.1000.
Now, it is trading at 1.0934. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA continues accelerating south below the larger moving averages and well above the current level, while technical indicators have stalled their slumps, but remain within extreme oversold levels.
The #risk is skewed to the #downside, with the decline seen extending on a break below the mentioned daily low.
Support levels: 1.0955 1.0920 1.0890
Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1040 1.1085

EUR analysis #forex # followme social trading

#PMI' Indexes for the services sector have exceeded expectations in almost all countries – and all are showing #growth. The final euro-zone Services PMI for August scored 53.5 points – better than expected and above 50 – reflecting growth.
However, Manufacturing PMIs have published on Monday continued showing contraction with scores below 50. Most worryingly, Germany's industrial sector suffers more than others.

The US #ISM Manufacturing PMI was supposed to be a hint toward Friday's #NonFarm Payrolls. Instead, the drop to 49.1 points – the lowest in three years and reflecting contraction. Fears of a #recession are rising in the world's largest economy – in large part due to the #TradeWar with China.
If the #US is struggling with the world's second-largest economy, #Germany will be under pressure due to falling exports to China. US weakness is not good news for #Europe.,

With the clock ticking down to the all-important #ECB decision on September 12, the #hawks are coming out against restarting the #BondBuying scheme. #MadisMüller, Governor of the Estonian central bank, joined his German colleagues in saying that markets expect too much. A limited stimulus packed from the Frankfurt-based institution has helped push the #euro #higher.

However, the ECB also has its share of doves – first and foremost President Mario Draghi. While Draghi is stepping down in November, the nominee to succeed him, Christine Lagarde – testifying today – is no less dovish. She reiterated the need for accommodative monetary policy.

Also across the Atlantic, the Fed is split. Some members prefer no cut while others would like to slash rates by 50 basis point in on September 18. And also in Washington, the final word belongs to the Chair. Jerome Powell will speak on Friday and will have the most significant impact.

EUR/USD #Technical #Analysis
EUR USD technical analysis September 4 2019

#EURUSD still suffers from downside momentum on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (#RSI) is above 30 – thus not reflecting oversold conditions anymore. Moreover, the currency pair continues trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages.

#Support awaits at 1.0960, which was Friday's low. It is followed by 1.0926 – Tuesday's fresh 2019 trough. Next, we are at levels last seen in 2017. These include the 1.0900, 1.0820, and 1.0780.

#Resistance awaits at the previous 2019 low of 1.1027. Next, 1.1050 provided support last week and now works as resistance. It is followed by 1.1090 and 1.1115.

#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD pair pullback to 1.2240 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Now it is trading at 1.2217.
#GBP recently surged as the UK lawmakers voted to avoid #NoDeal #Brexit and also turning the down the #PM #BorisJohnson’s proposed snap general election. The members of the parliaments (MPs) debated various bills concerning no-deal Brexit and early elections at the House of Commons. These bills will now reach the upper house i.e. the House of Lords for further discussions/amendments, scheduled for Thursday, and return back to the lower chamber prior to getting the Royal Assent. As per the Labour sources cited by The Press Association, the UK government's legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit will be completed by Friday.
With the risk tone remains positive with nearly four basis points (bps) of gains to 1.51% mark of the US 10-year Treasury yield by the press time.
Trade headlines will be the key to determine near-term trade direction of the #GBPUSD pair while August month’s ADP Employment Change, #ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (#PMI) and Factory Orders for July from the #US will decorate the economic calendar.

#Technical Analysis
Traders now watch over 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2155 and 1.2100 round-figure during additional pullback whereas 1.2308/10 area including August month high and 50-day SMA and early-July low surrounding 1.2382 could please buyers if prices clear recent high of 1.2261.

#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
#GBPUSD pair stays firm around 1.2320 after witnessing three consecutive positive daily closings ahead of Friday’s UK session open, due to the receding chances of no-deal Brexit.

The United Kingdom’s (UK) House of Lords is still debating on various Brexit issues to roll them out by Friday evening, to return them to House of Commons that could pass them for Royal Assent. While no significant change is expected in that front, the British Pound (GBP) traders are more inclined to hear from judicial reviews and pleas against the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s prorogation to the parliaments.

While the UK’s economic calendar is mostly silent, the #US will offer August month employment data for fresh impulse. Market consensus favors no change in the #UnemploymentRate of 3.7% whereas Average Hourly Earnings might step back from 3.2% to 3.1% on YoY while likely being unchanged to 0.3% on MoM. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (#NFP) could weaken to 158K from 164K prior.

Additionally, the US #FederalReserve Chairman is scheduled to speak at an event hosted by the Swiss Institute of International Studies, in Zurich, and hence his comments will be closely observed ahead of the blackout period for the Fed policymakers.

#TechnicalAnalysis
Sustained break of the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) requires to be validated by a run-up crossing July 17 low of 1.2382 for further advances, failing to which can recall 1.2200 back to the chart.

#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Here are the data highlights for this week:
(GMT+8)
Monday:
14:00 German trade figures and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index
16:00 UK BoE's Vlieghe speech
16:30 UK GDP, manufacturing production and construction output (all monthly figures)
Tuesday:
09:30 China Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
16:30 UK average earnings index
16:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Jul)
Wednesday:
08:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (Sep)
20:30 US core PPI
Thursday:
Chinese trade figures
14:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Aug)
19:45 Europe ECB rate decision and press conference
20:30 Europe ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
20:30 US CPI
Friday
20:30 US retail sales
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Sep)
#ECB unlikely to re-launch #QE
In this week, the main significant event is Mario Draghi’s last policy meeting as the #ECB President. There have been some suggestions that the #Italian will go out with a bang and announce more quantitative #easing to stimulate the flagging #Eurozone #economy - not least Germany, where incoming data has been truly shocking.
However, with #InterestRates already at zero and having only recently ended their #QE programme, some would argue that the best course of action would be to take no action at all, even if — as Mr Draghi put it in July — the economic outlook is “getting worse and worse.” Indeed, there could be an element of hawkish surprise at this meeting. Several ECB officials have spoken against QE, including Jens Weidmann, Klaas Knot, and Madis Muller in recent days. With this much opposition, Mario Draghi will probably not want to create a mess for his successor to clean up.

US #Inflation before #Fed meeting
With the latest employment figures disappointing expectations following a very poor manufacturing #PMI earlier in the week, this has further cemented speculation over a rate cut by the Fed later this month. Ahead of the September 18 meeting, we will have two more key data releases this week which the Fed might take into account when deciding on interest rates: Consumer Price Index (#CPI) (Thursday) and #RetailSales (Friday).
Unless #CPI is shockingly weak, it is safe to assume the #Fed will only #Cut #Rates by 25 basis points rather than 50. The retail sales may change that view either. Still, it could trigger some movement in the forex and stock markets. After a strong 0.7% m/m increase in spending last month, traders will be watching for any signs of a #slowdown, especially after last month’s tariff escalations.

09.11 #analysisi #forex #socialtrading
The #EURUSD has been fluctuating between two converging trend-lines over the past one week or so, forming a symmetrical triangle on hourly charts. Wednesday's early uptick quickly ran out of the steam, rather met with some fresh supply near the triangle resistance.

The #intraday #pullback has now dragged the pair back below 100-hour SMA, the intraday bias might have shifted in favor of bearish traders and sets the stage for a move towards testing the triangle support, currently near the 1.1020 region, which is followed by 200-hour EMA.

Due to drifting into the bearish territory on the 1-hourly chart, failure to defend the mentioned support levels might indicate the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.

The pair might then turn vulnerable to slide back towards challenging multi-year swing lows, around the 1.0925 area, before eventually sliding farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region - levels now seen since May 2017.

On the other hand, the 1.1050 region might continue to attract some fresh #supply, which if cleared decisively should negate any near-term bearish bias and prompt some aggressive short-covering move and assist the pair to surpass last week's swing high resistance near the 1.1085 level.

0912 #analysis #EURUSD #forex #socialtrading
#EURUSD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Wednesday and tumbled back below the key 1.10 psychological mark, albeit managed to recover around 25-pips from daily lows. The shared currency took a sharp knock in reaction to the German growth downgrade by the #Kiel #Institute for the World Economy, now expected to contract by -0.3% in Q3 following -0.1% in the previous quarter and meeting the criteria of a ‘technical recession’.

#USD remained well supported by a strong follow-through pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid growing optimism over the resumption of the #USChina trade talks. On the economic data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for August bettered market expectations and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the greenback. The headline PPI came in to show a rise of 0.1% during the reported month while the core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.3%.
#TradeTensions between the world's two largest economies eased further on Wednesday after the US President #Trump said that he will delay a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods by two weeks as a gesture of goodwill after Beijing exempted a range of American goods from its own tariffs. The market reaction, however, turned out to be rather muted, as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of Thursday's key event risk - the highly anticipated #ECB monetary policy decision.

The #ECB is widely expected to #lower #InterestRates further into the negative territory and also announce a new #QEprogram, though opinions on the stimulus package are divided and thus, increases the relevance of Thursday's rate decision. This will be followed by the post-meeting press conference, where comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi will further collaborate towards infusing volatility around the EUR crosses. From the US, the release of consumer inflation figures for the month of August might influence the USD price dynamics but seems more likely to be overshadowed by the post-ECB volatility.

Short-term #TechnicalAnalysis
From a technical perspective, the #EURUSD on Wednesday broke through a symmetrical triangle formation on hourly charts and confirmed a fresh bearish breakdown. However, the fact that the pair managed to defend the 1.10 handle on a closing basis warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. The pair now seems to have stabilized around 200-hour SMA, just below the triangle support breakpoint near the 1.1025 region. Any subsequent up-move now seems to confront fresh supply near mid-1.1000s, resistance marked by 38.2% Fibo. level of the 1.1251-1.0926 downfall, above which a bout of short-covering now seems to assist the pair to surpass the recent swing higher - around the 1.1070-80 region - and test 61.8% Fibo. level resistance near the 1.1125-30 area en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.1175-80 region (100-day SMA).

On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.10 handle, leading to a subsequent slide through the overnight swing lows - around the 1.0985, might now turn the pair to fall back towards the multi-year swing lows - around the 1.0925 area before eventually dropping farther below the 1.0900 round figure mark towards testing its next major support near the 1.0835-30 region.

#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Hey friends! Happy new week.
Here are the data highlights for this week:
(GMT+8)
Monday:
10:00 Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales


Tuesday:
09:30 RBA Meeting Minutes
17:00 German ZEW economic sentiment and
21:15 US industrial production

Wednesday
16:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
20:30 Canada BoC CPI

Thursday:
02:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement REPORT
02:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
02:30 US FOMC Press Conference SPEECH
06:45 AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
09:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)
09:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)
10:00 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
10:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement REPORT
14:00 JPY BoJ Press Conference SPEECH
19:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility
19:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike
19:00 UK Bank of England Minutes REPORT
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut
19:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged

Friday:
20:30 Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

#FederalReserve is expected to cut rate about 25-basis point. It would be a major shock if the Fed doesn’t deliver. But some, including Donald Trump, want more than just 25 basis points. In fact, the US President has called for “boneheads” Fed to cut rates to zero or lower in a tweet this week. Understandably, with US data not deteriorating as badly as, say, Germany, the Fed is reluctant to cut aggressively and rightly so. The risk therefore is that the Fed refuses to provide a dovish outlook for interest rates. In this potential scenario, a rate cut might only weigh on the dollar momentarily. With most other major central banks already being or turning dovish, the Fed will also need to be super dovish for the dollar to end its bullish trend. Otherwise, the greenback may find renewed bullish momentum, even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points.


The #Swiss National Bank will have to say about the #ECB’s decision to resume bond buying, given the recent appreciation of the franc against the shared currency. The #BoJ is unlikely to respond to the #ECB’s resumption of bond buying. It may keep the current policy of controlling the yield curve. For one, the global economy hasn’t deteriorated too significantly to exacerbate deflationary pressures in the export-oriented Japanese economy. For another, the there’s only limited number of policy options left at the BoJ's disposal. Thus, cutting short-term interest rates further into the negative may be an option, but to be used on another occasion.

#analysis #forex #followme #socialtrading
The #GBPUSD is trading at 1.2410 due to no positive Brexit developments and an on-going Parliament deadlock at the UK.
The #UK #PM Boris Johnson’s Luxembourg visit failed to provide any key updates. The EU President criticized the Tory leaders’ depth of details while British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab reiterated the PM”s pledge to leave on October 31 and also passing the bucket of criticism back to the EU.
The #USD stays on the front foot as the recent rise in #safe-haven demand, mainly due to the attacks of Saudi Arabia, joins hands with optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks, up for early October.
While the absence of data, except the US Industrial Production for August, is likely in support of carrying the previous move forward, any positive to the UK PM during the first day of hearings at the UK’s Supreme court could help the Cable recover some of its latest losses.
#TechnicalAnalysis
Unless providing a daily closing beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) level near 1.2510, the quote is less likely to rise towards mid-July highs surrounding 1.2580, which in turn highlights the importance of 1.2380 and 50-DMA level of 1.2280 during further declines.

#EURUSD #ANALYSIS #Forex #followme #socialtrading
The EUR/USD pair fails to hold on to recovery gains as it trades near 1.1070 ahead of the European session on Wednesday.
The US #IndustrialProduction and #CapacityUtilization failed to please the #USD buyers as better than forecast prints of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany and the Eurozone gained major attention. Also adding to the pair’s strength was the market’s risk recovery after Saudi Arabian diplomats showed readiness to overcome the recent damages due to drone attack within few weeks. Furthermore, news of the New York #Fed injecting funds through repo market and trade-positive headlines concerning the US, China and Japan also tamed the earlier #risk-off momentum.
#Traders have been #cautious since the start of Wednesday with eyes on the US #FederalReserve’s monetary policy meeting announcements up from 18:00 GMT. However, fresh trade/political headlines help extend the latest risk-on. As a result, Asian stocks report gains and the US 10-year Treasury yield remain around 1.80% by the press time.
Considering the high probability of the US Federal Reserve’s 0.25% Fed #rate, investors will be less surprised unless the US central bank offers less/more or no rate change. As a result, details of the quarterly economic forecast, press conference by the Fed Chairman #Powell and Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement will be the key to predict near-term market moves. The European Central Bank (#ECB) has recently shown its dovish bias and hence any hawkish statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) could be harmful to the pair’s latest recovery.
On the economic calendar, final reading of August month Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Eurozone and the US housing market numbers could offer intermediate moves ahead of the Fed decision.
#TechnicalAnalysis
Not only a falling trend-line since late-June, at 1.1090, but the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 1.1167 also could restrict pair’s near-term upside, which in-turn highlights 1.1100 and recent low surrounding 1.0925 as key supports.

#WeekAhead #forex #news #followme #socialtrading
Hey friends! Happy new week.
Here are the data highlights for this week:
(GMT+8)
Monday:
15:30 German Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
15:30 German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
16:00 Eurozone Markit PMI Composite (Sep)
21:50 US Fed's Williams speech

Tuesday:
13:35 BoJ's Governor Kuroda speech
16:00 German Ifo Business Climate and US Consumer Confidence (CB)
17:55 RBA's Governor Lowe speech

Wednesday:
07:50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
10:00 RBNZ Rate Statement REPORT
10:00 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision


Thursday:
20:30 US Final GDP

Friday:
07:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 US Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Aug)
20:30 US Core PCE Price Index; Core Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Spending and Income


Among next week’s data highlights, traders should watch closely: (1) Eurozone flash services and manufacturing PMIs, (2) RBNZ rate decisions and (3) US macro data released throughout the week.


Eurozone PMIs in focus
The #ECB restarted #QE and cut #InterestRates last week because of the Eurozone economy. The latest PMIs provide a leading indication of economic health. Businesses and their purchasing managers tend to react quickly to changing market conditions. If the PMIs – especially in the manufacturing sector – continue to paint a bleak picture, then the single currency could come under renewed pressure in early next week. The #EURUSD bulls huffed and puffed this week, but macro concerns kept a lid on the exchange rate. With the Fed turning out to be less dovish than expected, the path of least resistance remains to the downside for this popular exchange rate.

#RBNZ likely to hold rates steady after the surprise 0.5% cut
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to hold interest rates unchanged at the historically-low rate of 1.0% after delivering a shock 50 basis point cut when a 25bp cut was expected in the previous meeting in August. In total, rates have been trimmed by the RBNZ by 75 basis points since May. Going forward, the rate setters at the central bank will likely sit on theirs hands and monitor the ongoing trade situation between the US and China. However, if the RBNZ makes any hints of forthcoming rate cuts then the NZD/USD could drop further lower after it hit a new 2019 low below the old low of 0.6270 on Friday to drop to 0.6255 at the time of this writing.

US-China Trade and #Brexit back to forefront
Deputy trade negotiators from the US and China resumed talks for the first time in almost two months this week. Their aim is to lay the groundwork for high-level talks in early October. Will they finally bridge their differences and find a way out of the trade war? As the high levels talks near, expect more tweets and tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which could highs some risk-sensitive markets. However, for the time being, stock markets remain supported with US equity indices near record levels after a week of central bank bonanza, where the #message was loud and clear: global #InterestRates will remain at or near record #lows for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, hopes over an imminent Brexit breakthrough rose earlier this week and the GBP/USD shot above the 1.25 handle to trade 20 pips shy of 1.26 by early Friday session. However, it then sold off sharply after the Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney dashed those hopes by saying: “I think we need to be honest with people and say that we’re not close to that deal right now. But there is an intent I think by all sides to try and find a landing zone that everybody can live with here."

Followme, more than trade.

#forex #followme #socialtrading
#AUDUSD has dropped into the red, having faced rejection at the 50-hour moving average line and could suffer a deeper drop if the Reserve Bank of Australia's (#RBA) governor Lowe reinforces the market expectation of a 25 basis point #RateCut on Oct. 1.
The currency pair is currently trading at session lows near 0.6765, representing 0.10% losses on the day. The pair had picked up a bid in the early Asian trading hours on comments by the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, confirming the Chinese Vice Premier’s trade visit to the US in the next week
The upside, however, was capped by the 50-hour moving average near 0.6779. Therefore, a break above that average is needed invite stronger buying pressure and yield a notable bounce.
That, however, may not happen or could be short-lived if RBA's Lowe talks dovish. The central bank chief is scheduled to speak at 09:55 GMT.
Expectations for the RBA to cut the official interest rate to 75% on Oct. 1 surged following last week's worse than expected unemployment rate.
The ASX 30 day cash rates futures contracts are currently indicating a more than 70% chance of an RBA rate cut next week.
The AUD will likely rise well above the 50-hour MA if RBA's Lowe pushes back on expectations of an October rate cut. The currency pair, however, could drop below 0.67 if Lowe talks dovish, further boosting the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on Oct. 1.

#WeekAhead #forex #followme #socialtrading
Hey friends, this is the last day of September and the new day of this week.
Here is the highlight of this week forex news:
(GMT+8)

Monday:
09:45 Chinese manufacturing PMI
16:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
20:00 German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Sep)

Tuesday:
12:30 RBA meeting
22:00 US Manufacturing PMI


Wednesday:
20:15 US ADP Employment report

Thursday:
22:00 US Non-Manufacturing PMI

Friday:
20:30 Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)


In this week, the economic calendar is full of market-moving data and the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to #CutRates one more time on Tuesday. For another, Q3 is officially ending on Monday, meaning there will be some portfolio rebalancing and window dressing operations from portfolio managers to provide extra volatility. All this is happening at a time when #Brexit talks are entering a crucial stage, while the #US-China trade talks are set to resume in early October.


With regards to Brexit, reports on Friday suggested that the EU believes negotiations have stalled and that the possibility of reaching an agreement in October is very limited. So, everything is up in the air and a lot could happen. So, volatility should remain elevated, which should be good news for traders.

By the time we get to Friday’s #NonfarmPayrolls report, a lot could have happened. But those employment figures will likely be the week’s main scheduled event. With jobs growth slowing over the past few months, another disappointing showing could increase bets on further rate cuts from the Fed and, in turn, derail the dollar’s rally. Or will there be a surprise pick-up in wage growth? If that’s the case, the USD could remain supported for a while yet.

Ahead of Friday’s US jobs report, we will have had the latest manufacturing PMIs from both China and the US. After a shocking German PMI this week, growth concerns could really come to the forefront should manufacturers at the world’s largest economies also paint a bleak picture. So, commodity dollars could be in for a wild ride.

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#EURUSD appears to have met a strong resistance in the mid-1.0900s for the time being amidst a recovery attempt in the Greenback.

The pair is exchanging gains with losses around the 1.0940/50 region in the European morning, looking to extend the positive streak for yet another session after YTD lows near 1.0880 on Tuesday.
Broad-based fears of a recession in the US economy in the next couple of years continue to fuel the selling pressure around the Dollar and the downtrend in US yields, all collaborating further with the corrective upside in spot.

The pair keeps the weekly recovery well and sound so far today, retaking levels well above the 1.09 barrier on the back of increasing selling pressure hitting the Greenback. The up move in the pair, however, is seen as corrective only, as the slowdown in the region stays far from abated and carries the potential to deteriorate further, as per the latest PMIs in core Euroland and despite the lacklustre improvement in a couple of German sentiment gauges. Speaking of Germany, the likeliness that the country could slip back into recession in the third quarter just adds to the already gloomy panorama for the bloc and weighs further on the single currency. The unremitting slowdown in the region does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB. On another front, potential US tariffs on imports of EU cars remain well on the table, while the Brexit limbo and UK politics adds to the ongoing concerns.
EUR/USD technical analysis
At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.09% at 1.0948 and a breach of 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1) would target 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the upside, the next hurdle aligns at 1.1000 (21-day SMA) followed by 1.1109 (monthly high Sep.13) and finally 1.1163 (high Aug.26).

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The #GBPUSD pair reversed an early European session dip to sub-1.2200 levels and rallied around 30-35 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and quickly retreated few pips thereafter.

The continued showing some resilience below the 1.2200 round-figure marks and managed to regain some positive traction amid some renewed US Dollar weakness. The latest developments on the US-China trade front threatened to derail already delicate trade negotiations and turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on the Greenback.

Brexit uncertainties continue to cap the upside
Apart from a subdued USD price action, the uptick lacked any major fundamental catalyst and remained capped in the wake of overnight reports that Brexit talks between Britain and the European Union were close to breaking down. Meanwhile, the UK PM Boris Johnson reiterated that they would leave the EU by October 31st and revived fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Moreover, the latest comments by the Irish finance minister, Paschal Donohoe clearly indicated that any Brexit deal is nowhere in the offering, which might further contribute towards keeping a lid on any runaway rally for the major. Donohoe said that there is a big gap between the UK and the EU on the crucial Irish backstop issue and constructive engagement is the only choice.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent slide from the vicinity of the 1.2600 handle is already over and (or) positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases - either from the UK or the US.

Later during the early North-American session, a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities ahead of the release of the minutes of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting held on September 17-18.

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The #USDJPY pair finally broke out of its daily consolidative trading range and jumped to near two-week tops, around the 108.25 region in the last hour.

A sustained move above 100-day EMA was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and remained supportive of some follow-through buying interest on Friday.

The pair is now trying to build on the momentum further beyond a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance amid growing US-China trade optimism.

This is closely followed by 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall, which if cleared will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.

Beyond the said hurdle around mid-108.00s, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 109.00 handle en-route 61.8% Fibo. resistance near the 109.30-35 region.

On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the 107.85 region (100-day EMA), which if broken might negate the constructive outlook.