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The Swamp

  • #40,261
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:26am Aug 29, 2019 4:26am
Quoting gatorinla
I thought the gbp would be more voiltile and drop quicker. Well before protest. I thought it would weigh on euro also. So far, not so much.. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...end-parliament
Check volatility in real time in pips... Euro barely had any moves compared to sterling..
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  • #40,262
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:39am Aug 29, 2019 4:39am
Quoting gatorinla
I thought the gbp would be more voiltile and drop quicker. Well before protest. I thought it would weigh on euro also. So far, not so much.. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...end-parliament

Plenty of potential for a WTF moment drop in GU. The most likely scenario........at the minimum I keep a small short position open just in case, add and partially close as it moves. Brexit is bad economically for GBP, no deal is the worst. I don't believe the full affect of brexit is priced in yet, simply because its unknown and time has moved on.. The only way there is upside potential is if BJ can achieve a deal better than Mays, or an extension agreed followed by a referendum. ....I dont see it happening.....so for me the most likely way is down....and the only questions are when, how far and how much bounce in the meantime........so patience and balls of steel required.
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #40,263
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:47am Aug 29, 2019 4:47am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Check volatility in real time in pips... Euro barely had any moves compared to sterling.. {image}
Yeah, I figured gbp would move over 1.5X the euro. Since eg crossed to bear side on month week gbp being the weaker. Plus gu on month and week bearish. Making gbp the more bearish of the 3, in a long term cycle, that is still fresh. The day was bearish on these also at the time, but swapped. A few days ago. The day, 4h, and 1h were bullish. Since the 4h and 1h have returned to bearish. Just need gu day closed below 2014 again.. That's about 180 pips till 2014 atm. or 2x adr. I dont know what is holding up gu. I have one indi targeting 2380 on day setting. I just dont see it. The indi is saying 180 up, the opposite direction. So I guess its sitting in a sweet spot between the 2..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,264
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:48am Aug 29, 2019 4:48am
In again, short GU @ 1.2200
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #40,265
  • Aug 29, 2019 4:55am Aug 29, 2019 4:55am
Quoting axecap
{quote} Plenty of potential for a WTF moment drop in GU. The most likely scenario........at the minimum I keep a small short position open just in case, add and partially close as it moves. Brexit is bad economically for GBP, no deal is the worst. I don't believe the full affect of brexit is priced in yet, simply because its unknown and time has moved on.. The only way there is upside potential is if BJ can achieve a deal better than Mays, or an extension agreed followed by a referendum. ....I dont see it happening.....so for me the most likely...
yeah i was hoping for a "chf unpegged" type drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,266
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:03am Aug 29, 2019 5:03am
If one looks at the calendar. The gbp has not had much economic news the past few weeks. Mostly the BJ/brexit news. That will change Sept 9 week with some scheduled economice releases. Basically I summarize, the gbp has not had the "poor mouth" like other pairs. "No economic news" is hoping gbp float some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,267
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:08am Aug 29, 2019 5:08am
Basically I summarize, the gbp has not had the "poor mouth" like other pairs. "No economic news" is hoping gbp float some.[/quote]

agreed its hope and sentiment....reality still to come
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #40,268
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:13am Aug 29, 2019 5:13am
Quoting gatorinla
If one looks at the calendar. The gbp has not had much economic news the past few weeks. Mostly the BJ/brexit news. That will change Sept 9 week with some scheduled economice releases. Basically I summarize, the gbp has not had the "poor mouth" like other pairs. "No economic news" is hoping gbp float some.
sideline for now.. wait for US GDP data in 2 hours so.... either to short Eur higher than here 1075.. or wait for a long trigger.. one way or another .....
considering dollar at R...
  • #40,269
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:16am Aug 29, 2019 5:16am
Quoting axecap
Basically I summarize, the gbp has not had the "poor mouth" like other pairs. "No economic news" is hoping gbp float some.
agreed its hope and sentiment....reality still to come[/quote]
sept 9 has some news, then sept 19. While usa and ez have many more reports much more frequent. The usa and ez is putting out news of more countries much more than uk's frequency .. Even the sept 9 to 19, is 10 days between with little news. In the same period, usa and ez have so many reports. Most reports will be negative. Because the world is slowing economically.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,270
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:31am Aug 29, 2019 5:31am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} sideline for now.. wait for US GDP data in 2 hours so.... either to short Eur higher than here 1075.. or wait for a long trigger.. one way or another ..... considering dollar at R...
When the u.s. "bad news". Starts boosting the usd, cycle starts. "All news" tends to favor usd. It did this last crises. Bad u.s. news, would end the day higher for usd.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #40,271
  • Aug 29, 2019 5:48am Aug 29, 2019 5:48am
Going to be very interesting once this monthly breaks into bull trend

30y-10y spread
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #40,272
  • Aug 29, 2019 6:20am Aug 29, 2019 6:20am
;
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  • #40,273
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:00am Aug 29, 2019 7:00am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} That is another large spread trade I have on... Shorting gold with AUD$ I actually got a 2 mil entry at 3024.25 and held it most of the way Lets doooooo it again, one of my best trades, drawdown was ~$2000 It is very surprising that the market is so buoyant, but it could be the calm before the storm, many have these 3100 targets, political theory says a dump will come near the election, we shall see where the market is at that point
3100 for SPX - well if it breaks 3020 .... ...
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #40,274
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:40am Aug 29, 2019 7:40am
E/U moving very strange in the last days. I don't see any reason to go long but the Price is like building for a move up
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #40,275
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:45am Aug 29, 2019 7:45am
scalp short 1073 and 1081..
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  • #40,276
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:45am Aug 29, 2019 7:45am
Negative data keeps rolling out for EUR but the damn thing refuses to go down! Not that US data has been amazing, but still somewhat neutral.
Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #40,277
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:46am Aug 29, 2019 7:46am
Took a short 1.1080



Cheers

Jeff
I EAT PIPS
  • #40,278
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:47am Aug 29, 2019 7:47am
Shorting time is over, bull move from friday slowly retraced and another bull run will start.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #40,279
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:49am Aug 29, 2019 7:49am
Quoting OnlineAddict
Shorting time is over, bull move from friday slowly retraced and another bull run will start.
If it can't go down, it should move up. Right?
Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #40,280
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:49am Aug 29, 2019 7:49am
Quoting jshear
Took at short 1.1080 Cheers Jeff
same thought.. good luck...
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