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  • #17,021
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:02am Aug 27, 2019 10:02am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: SPY Aug30 289 CALL @ $2.61 Sometimes I like the longshot gamble based on nothing but gut feeling, and I'm hoping things will settle out over the weekend or even before the close. I just think the drop was just a fast overreaction move......
Out of the following:

SPY Aug30 289 CALL @ $2.87 up from $2.61....and darn lucky to get out the way the market is flipping....
  • #17,022
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:21am Aug 27, 2019 11:21am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} I think we will see some up time next week, but it looks to me (on my charts) that the overall weekly will be a down week. The Daily lower BB and the monthly 10EMA are roughly the same on SPY (~283.40-ish), so I would expect that to be the next stop....
And it was.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Lower BB SPY.png Size: 83 KB
  • #17,023
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:37pm Aug 27, 2019 10:37pm
I bot a Sep4 SPY put fly today, $278/280/282 ...for 10 whole cents...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,024
  • Aug 28, 2019 12:26pm Aug 28, 2019 12:26pm
Quoting The Fool
I bot a SPX Sep6/9 2940/2945 call diagonal for 45c credit.....
....slow grind to 2910-2950 will make me smile
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019-08-28_1013spx3.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,025
  • Aug 30, 2019 10:42am Aug 30, 2019 10:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....slow grind to 2910-2950 will make me smile {image}
Can i ask?
UJ related to spx 500?
any connection between this 2?
I saw someone said this, but i am news to spx 500
  • #17,026
  • Aug 30, 2019 10:52am Aug 30, 2019 10:52am
Quoting LeongPuiy
Can i ask? UJ related to spx 500? any connection between this 2? I saw someone said this, but i am news to spx 500
.....you can examine such relationships for yourself if you have a computer, know how to look at charts, etc. Doesn't interest me really....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,027
  • Aug 30, 2019 10:54am Aug 30, 2019 10:54am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}.....you can examine such relationships for yourself if you have a computer, know how to look at charts, etc. Doesn't interest me really....
Ok
  • #17,028
  • Sep 1, 2019 6:57pm Sep 1, 2019 6:57pm
I needed a pullback for the SPX diag above, futures down some early, Dorian now Cat 5, anything can happen, he could blow right up the poop chute of WS

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,029
  • Sep 3, 2019 2:16pm Sep 3, 2019 2:16pm
Quoting The Fool
I needed a pullback for the SPX diag above....
...pullback today, rally tomorrow, the spoos is right where it was 3 months ago
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,030
  • Sep 5, 2019 9:50am Sep 5, 2019 9:50am
Quoting The Fool
...pullback today, rally tomorrow, the spoos is right where it was 3 months ago
...face ripped off on Wed ah trade news, SPX diag dropped off the deep end, cost me a $1.50 to get out.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,031
  • Sep 5, 2019 11:52pm Sep 5, 2019 11:52pm
...huge dovish FOMC on tap, China trade truce, unless something happens, US equities should be on a hot breakout to surpass ath's within the next 10 td.

Today I bot a Sep20 SPX 3055/3060 call vert for 60c.....

If there really will be a US/China deal near term, we could see spoos >3,100 no prob

...dark clouds on the horizon = no deal brexit, but you gotta believe there will be yet another can kick there.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,032
  • Sep 11, 2019 8:55pm Sep 11, 2019 8:55pm
Quoting The Fool
...huge dovish FOMC on tap, China trade truce, unless something happens, US equities should be on a hot breakout to surpass ath's within the next 10 td. Today I bot a Sep20 SPX 3055/3060 call vert for 60c......
...ntm ECB....CB's juicing the markets from all sides bukake style. Breakouts imminent....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,033
  • Sep 13, 2019 12:27pm Sep 13, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting The Fool
...ntm ECB....CB's juicing the markets from all sides bukake style. Breakouts imminent....
....maybe it's all too much?....please just take the punch bowl away....I can't take anymore...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,034
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:20pm Sep 18, 2019 2:20pm
still long & trying to leg into spreads - bot SPY Sep30 $304 calls for $0.40, looking to sell Sep27 $304 calls for $0.45
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,035
  • Sep 18, 2019 2:35pm Sep 18, 2019 2:35pm
Quoting The Fool
still long & trying to leg into spreads - bot SPY Sep30 $304 calls for $0.40, looking to sell Sep27 $304 calls for $0.45
...done
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,036
  • Sep 21, 2019 9:06pm Sep 21, 2019 9:06pm
Quoting The Fool
...huge dovish FOMC on tap, China trade truce, unless something happens, US equities should be on a hot breakout to surpass ath's within the next 10 td. Today I bot a Sep20 SPX 3055/3060 call vert for 60c..... If there really will be a US/China deal near term, we could see spoos >3,100 no prob ...dark clouds on the horizon = no deal brexit, but you gotta believe there will be yet another can kick there.
...bull vert expired worthless, every week of gain shot down by one negative trade war headline....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,037
  • Oct 2, 2019 4:13pm Oct 2, 2019 4:13pm
We may see an up day tomorrow, but before we get much upside movement again, I think the SPX is going to drop some more to hit the 2840 area before the end of the week. That will take care of the Weekly chart hitting the lower BB, the Monthly chart hitting the mid-BB, and an extreme oversold on the Daily chart. Then, I believe we will see some more upside. Unless some stupid tweet or "breaking" news/fake news happens before this plays out.....

It's like fishing in a bass tournament: you can be poised to catch a lot of fish in a nice, quiet cove because all the conditions are right...but then someone starts throwing rocks in the water and suddenly all bets are off....
  • #17,038
  • Oct 9, 2019 10:17pm Oct 9, 2019 10:17pm
Well, it didn't get quite as low as I expected (2855 vs.2840-ish) but the Weekly lower BB was hit, which was the immediate driver of the three charts. Still good for a little money on the SPY, though....

I expect it to drop towards 2880 by the end of the week. That's level is the lower BB on the Daily and the mid-BB on the monthly, so it is a fairly strong area of support. Then hopefully some up side next week, because if the mid-BB on the monthly can't be held as support, we are likely to see moves down into the 2700's.....but it looks like it is pretty strong support there. (again, barring any stupid tweet or "breaking" news/fake news...I think that is going to have to be the norm now, as predictability of the market used to no hinge so much on social media and political news).
  • #17,039
  • Nov 1, 2019 3:03pm Nov 1, 2019 3:03pm
Wed I bot Nov6 SPX 3075 calls for $3, today sold Nov6 3085 SPX calls for $3.50 at the close.....paying myself 50c for a chance to make $10.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,040
  • Nov 2, 2019 12:17am Nov 2, 2019 12:17am
will there be another VIX spike between now and April....verts like this kind of hold my place for future opps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX01.png Size: 227 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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