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The Secret to Success and profitable trading - What is it?

  • #221
  • Aug 27, 2019 9:26am Aug 27, 2019 9:26am
Daniel2775 - I think I understood how you're trading From the trades you posed you system has martingale variation When you open trade which you see loosing, you open oposite trade with ~double size and wait to cover loss.
  • #222
  • Aug 27, 2019 9:44am Aug 27, 2019 9:44am
Hey Daniel

3 moving averages 2 time frames

Personally I never really traded using moving averages to be able to know the strategy. I also dnt like being spoon fed but in my search I never came to what I can point as exactly what you are directing me to.
  • #223
  • Aug 27, 2019 9:55am Aug 27, 2019 9:55am
Quoting gk111222333
Daniel2775 - I think I understood how you're trading From the trades you posed you system has martingale variation When you open trade which you see loosing, you open oposite trade with ~double size and wait to cover loss.

This is what I thought too and started demoing it yesterday, but with equal lot sizes
  • #224
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:38am Aug 27, 2019 11:38am
Thank you Daniel, I will liKe to ask regarding the money compounding method, do you place sell limits and buy stop at the same time ? Do you increase the lots size progressive as you place trades.
Only Jesus Saves
  • #225
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:15pm Aug 27, 2019 2:15pm
Quoting Daniel2775
Use this as you wish. For me it works best in my strategy when pairs do opposites. For some it works best when they move the same. {image}
Not so accurate, it depends on the time frame..
  • #226
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:19pm Aug 27, 2019 2:19pm
Quoting Daniel2775
{quote} Agreed. I am literally at a point now where I could take a strategy and win from it. Because it is all about control. Not taking trades is a position and to do that takes discipline. And yes that is why 99% fail. Because rules do not get followed. Also traders follow people for a few weeks get bored move on. Go around and around. And in the end realise if they would have stuck with one system good and bad they would be profitable! Or at least breakeven. Thanks for adding to the tread. This is exactly why I started it for input like a few...

People keep saying 99% fail, 90% fail, etc.
If you look at the official brokerīs statements in the US, itīs more like 75% fail.(loose consistently).
Comparable to any other business, start a Restaurant tomorrow, probably similar chances, unless you really know what you are doing..then..
  • #227
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:39pm Aug 27, 2019 2:39pm
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} ........................ start a Restaurant tomorrow, probably similar chances, unless you really know what you are doing..then..
Take Jamie Oliver as an example..................
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #228
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:56pm Aug 27, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} People keep saying 99% fail, 90% fail, etc. If you look at the official brokerīs statements in the US, itīs more like 75% fail.(loose consistently)..(emphasis added).

My guess would be that brokers would have a tendency to underestimate the number of failures. After all, they need new clients, and clients would be harder to come by if 90% of clients failed. Therefore, brokers would tend to skew lower at around 75%. A number high enough to scare some, but not high enough to scare all.

My guess would be that failed traders would have a tendency to overestimate the number of failures. This would be the "If I can not do this, very few others can." mentality. Therefore, they would tend to cite a 90-95% failure rate.

So the actual number is probably like 82.5%. Unless you're a member of FF. Where most traders are dedicated to helping others find success.....
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #229
  • Edited 3:24pm Aug 27, 2019 3:10pm | Edited 3:24pm
Hi Daniel

Lets get the ball rolling on win rates and discuss what really matters to the bottom line of our accounts.
First of all I do achieve around 85% win rates trading methods like George has laid out but this does not give other traders here the full story.

Also who cares, I don't either.

Its the size of the average wins minus the size of the average loses that matters at the end of the day. Have 9 wins at a average 10 pips a trade then losing one unlucky trade of around 25 pips changes the whole story. While we are still profitable, after trading costs we would only actually have a real PROFIT rate around 60%.
So while we may pat ourselves on the back and impress our mates with great high win rate results, we are not being transparent.

Actually aiming for a high win rate is just stupid in my eyes, please let me give you an example. I run portfolio EA's where I can optimize my win rates up to 90%+ or down to 60%+. You would think that increasing a strategy's win rate would increase its profitability but its not logical. Going by my testing results and live trading results on Reversal EA's, the sweet spot seems to be about 73%. The reason is this allows my EA freedom to increase the risk in search of higher AVERAGE profits.

So when I trade the M1, I am happy to throw a few trades at a pair, hedge when needed to recover the profits before closing the basket out for a win.

Win Rate is IRRELEVANT IN MY EYES
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #230
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:00pm Aug 27, 2019 8:00pm
Quoting RickM
Hi Daniel Lets get the ball rolling on win rates and discuss what really matters to the bottom line of our accounts. First of all I do achieve around 85% win rates trading methods like George has laid out but this does not give other traders here the full story. Also who cares, I don't either. Its the size of the average wins minus the size of the average loses that matters at the end of the day. Have 9 wins at a average 10 pips a trade then losing one unlucky trade of around 25 pips changes the whole story. While we are still profitable, after...
Hi Rick, you are correct. Winrate alone doesn't tell the complete story.

There's reward risk as in risking x pips to gain y pips per trade entry, example 25pips sl to 10pips profit. Some traders average down in a basket of small lot multiple entries per trade signal. The net stop loss can be large, example 20% of equity if the trade fails.

This is further complicated with hedge trading and use of martingale strategy.
  • #231
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:19pm Aug 27, 2019 11:19pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @Daniel2775 -- but why? Is it because you are concerned people would "abuse" it -- where "abuse" means they might profit? And, if you are concerned that people might profit, are you then concerned the MM would change its algorithms so that retail traders couldn't profit -- including yourself? How much profit would retail traders actually have to make in order to cause the MM to change its algorithms? I've read elsewhere where people state that no one would ever publish a profitable system -- and I wonder why. And I wonder where that...
Let me tell you why... if there is one system that is "really " working, don't you think big banks, brokers, firms wont notice it? If everybody will use it, it will crash right? The truth is, there is no technical system that works more than 50% of the time, otherwise it wont work coz every traders will use it. It will always crash. A system that doesn't work and nobody is using has a better edge.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #232
  • Aug 28, 2019 12:56am Aug 28, 2019 12:56am
To be able to compete with the banks and large institutional investors retail traders have to build their strategies using their main advantage - the possiblity to open and close positions just in a few seconds. This provides trader with an unique flexibility while it sometimes takes days or even weeks for large market participants to open or close thier huge positions, and it is quite difficult for them to do this without influencing the price. At the same ime, retail trader using tiny capital could get in and out of the position just in a seconds.
It is important to keep in mind that banks and institutional investors are actively developing trading bots and HFTs operating at the lowest possible time intervals and competing with scalpers. Thus, it is important for the trader to find an optimal balance between using his competitive advantage and avoiding trading on the lowest timeframes. It seems that daytrading fits the best for this purpose. As usual, active daytraders opens 2-3 positions per day, making his decisions based both on fundamental analysis (according to the news background) and technical situation (usning specific price patterns and setups he knows the best). The system basen on this principle would be profitalbe even if large companies would be familiar with it - they are just to large to use it.
At the same time, trader using such systems could face some issues when he would like to increase his trading size. The problem of scaling is common for pennystock traders, for example. Forex traders would less likely face this problem due to the specific nature of the market and the way the orders are executed.
  • #233
  • Aug 28, 2019 1:54am Aug 28, 2019 1:54am
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Let me tell you why... if there is one system that is "really " working, don't you think big banks, brokers, firms wont notice it? If everybody will use it, it will crash right? The truth is, there is no technical system that works more than 50% of the time, otherwise it wont work coz every traders will use it. It will always crash. A system that doesn't work and nobody is using has a better edge.
@MrBullBear -- you are totally clueless. The retail forex market is more than 5 trillion dollars per day. If every retail trader had a million dollar account and traded successfully it wouldn't even register on the radar. Furthermore, there is not some evil Swiss banker hiding in a cave who controls the price levels of all currencies. There is something called Global Commerce that also comes into play. You're just perpetuating a misconception that plays into the hands of the fraudsters and schemers.
  • #234
  • Aug 28, 2019 1:58am Aug 28, 2019 1:58am
Quoting gk111222333
Daniel2775 - I think I understood how you're trading From the trades you posed you system has martingale variation When you open trade which you see loosing, you open oposite trade with ~double size and wait to cover loss.
lol no this is far from how I trade. Thats very risky trading. I dont trade a martingale
  • #235
  • Aug 28, 2019 1:59am Aug 28, 2019 1:59am
Quoting Ndabezinhle
Hey Daniel 3 moving averages 2 time frames Personally I never really traded using moving averages to be able to know the strategy. I also dnt like being spoon fed but in my search I never came to what I can point as exactly what you are directing me to.
Hi so this was just an example. But also allowing others to post simple ideas for new people. I will go into detail later
  • #236
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:00am Aug 28, 2019 2:00am
Quoting Ndabezinhle
{quote} This is what I thought too and started demoing it yesterday, but with equal lot sizes
You will blow many accounts with a martingale
  • #237
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:01am Aug 28, 2019 2:01am
Quoting dotman
Thank you Daniel, I will liKe to ask regarding the money compounding method, do you place sell limits and buy stop at the same time ? Do you increase the lots size progressive as you place trades.
Hello no i dont. My money management and hedging is done via pair hedging only. Never place buy and sell at same time
  • #238
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:02am Aug 28, 2019 2:02am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} People keep saying 99% fail, 90% fail, etc. If you look at the official brokerīs statements in the US, itīs more like 75% fail.(loose consistently). Comparable to any other business, start a Restaurant tomorrow, probably similar chances, unless you really know what you are doing..then..
So when you look at a broker they say 75% lose. That doesnt mean 25% make profits. Some could be break even. Some could just be in profit. 1-5% make a life changing sum that is a fact
  • #239
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:04am Aug 28, 2019 2:04am
Quoting RickM
Hi Daniel Lets get the ball rolling on win rates and discuss what really matters to the bottom line of our accounts. First of all I do achieve around 85% win rates trading methods like George has laid out but this does not give other traders here the full story. Also who cares, I don't either. Its the size of the average wins minus the size of the average loses that matters at the end of the day. Have 9 wins at a average 10 pips a trade then losing one unlucky trade of around 25 pips changes the whole story. While we are still profitable, after...
Hello, yes everyone has there own way in this game if it works for you thats great
  • #240
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:07am Aug 28, 2019 2:07am
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Let me tell you why... if there is one system that is "really " working, don't you think big banks, brokers, firms wont notice it? If everybody will use it, it will crash right? The truth is, there is no technical system that works more than 50% of the time, otherwise it wont work coz every traders will use it. It will always crash. A system that doesn't work and nobody is using has a better edge.
I dont agree I know many systems that work much more than 80% of the time including mine. There are simple systems out there that will get you 60-70% working. So this really makes no sense. Not every system will alwasy crash and I would like to know what facts you have?
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