Looks like a bull flag although I may be safe short for a while if this tripple top holds although I may get out soon if it continues up. I think the flag isn't long enough yet. More ranging.
Adjusted the triangle trendlines to the tip. Still forming the triangle. Fibs are hitting to the T. This is the critical point in the price action, it usually spikes after a triangle formation completes.
Just brainstorming ideas about how to automate. It would be nice if instead of a stop loss an automatic target is triggered for a retrace from this to limit drawdown. For example, entries at fib levels, stop beyond where the fib was drawn from, but instead of stops, a feature that lets it retrace a bit before exit. There may have to be a hard stop or emergency stop further out but it may save a few pips overall because price usually retraces a bit if it blows past a level like this.
If I put the order in at market before the end of the session I can catch the gap on SP500, since my experiment with an entry order failed, as a previous post shows, it would have been an obvious and good move.
I marked arrows starting Aug 26 on that show where entries should have been. The first short looks like it would have stopped out, if the stop was just beyond the trendline a bit. However, subsequent longs and shorts could have been safely brought to breakeven without stopout. Trendlines are never perfect so stops should have this in mind with leeway but not much is really needed.
With silver the cornflower blue arrows show where a good long entry is for a triangle breakout, the touch of the bottom trendline at the tip or the slight retrace right after (first fib). The arrows are where stops should have been placed.
Bull/bear flags are a new pattern for me, I have been trading spike fades for years but really the big moves happen when it goes parabolic. Timing it to the tip of the triangle or close to it plus average indicators like sma 50 etc help. The parabolic move often goes beyond the 423.6 so more fib levels are needed. Too bad MT4 doesn't have a spiral fib drawing like Thinkorswim, this provides 2 more extensions, showing where targets should be set to catch the move in full.
I lost interest in this mini account. It is just not enough skin in the game for me to even open the program and check the trades. So far though it is down. No blessing without a sacrificial, in this case, I can loose more money with tradersway, so it makes me more nervous and keeps the fire going. My $400 per month cap on adding money to the account has served me well. I'm practicing discipline with a small account. Less than a handful of margin calls so far.
Stopped out of silver, strange enough, gold didn't correlate. Shorting the silver spike from the new high. I really should have longed the bull flag though, it was a good setup. I wasn't staring at the screen though. Darn as I was typing it stopped.
The flag extends yet again, new upper trendline. Stopped out of gold and silver on the wrong side of the trades.
I think going long an short simultaneously is good to catch the money from both directions but I have to define risk better. There is still room up with both metals, however it will rubber band snap back to the average eventually. Spikes like this can be quite lucrative if you manage to pinpoint the reversal. It takes a few tries sometimes, stopping out then getting in again, but with the right stop and position size it can still be a bigger win than the losses when it does reverse.
In retrospect I should have had 2 positions open, one as a swing and the other a scalp, so I can ride out the noise with the swing but take the winnings at the 423.6 on the momentum moves with the scalp, then get back in with the scalp on the retrace, and depending on how much confluence with signals such as trendlines and averages, and most of all fib levels, add another swing runner. Basically trade a longer term and shorter term perspective.
Looks like I have to add more bitcoin. I would have traded the SP500 today but the account drew down to much so there now is not enough margin for even 1 contract. Just about as bad a a blown account, although I can still trade with $3 margin on the metals. Still within my trading budget. I think emotionally it makes me more careful with a little account that still hurts somewhat when there is drawdown. I could be spending that money on ?..? but now it's your money, market, not mine. Statistics will beat the market long term though. Persistently getting those stats more in my favor.
