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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #561
  • Aug 25, 2019 6:51pm Aug 25, 2019 6:51pm
Cheap, Cheap oil! I would not have predicted we start the week lower given the weekend events.
  • #562
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:56pm Aug 26, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Nice trade vpn. Trump also bumped tariffs up 5% to 30% as the markets closed. If you didn't hit TP yet I think you will on Monday.
I ended up getting out before the weekend. G7 was making me nervous:
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  • #563
  • Aug 26, 2019 4:06pm Aug 26, 2019 4:06pm
Quoting Ef5
One of the more important events to unfold today was China specifically targeting US oil for a tariff. Whomever was long Brent and short WTI made out well today!
With a spread of less than 5 dollars there is room for some widening. I think that trade is still a good one.
  • #564
  • Aug 26, 2019 4:57pm Aug 26, 2019 4:57pm
Quoting vpn
{quote} I ended up getting out before the weekend. G7 was making me nervous:{image}
Very nice, the extra reward was not worth the risk in the end anyway.
  • #565
  • Aug 26, 2019 7:21pm Aug 26, 2019 7:21pm
Every time a drop in CL happens, it's accompanied by a spike in volume. There's still heavy selling pressure in Crude. Check it out on the 30M chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #566
  • Aug 26, 2019 7:34pm Aug 26, 2019 7:34pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Every time a drop in CL happens, it's accompanied by a spike in volume. There's still heavy selling pressure in Crude. Check it out on the 30M chart: {image}
Good point! This ride ain't over
  • #567
  • Aug 26, 2019 8:28pm Aug 26, 2019 8:28pm
If anybody's interested in seeing what might be in store for the API data tomorrow check out the preview here: API inventory data - Aug 27th preview
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #568
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:11am Aug 27, 2019 11:11am
I got out of my Crude short position. Hurricane Dorian is on a path directly for Florida. If it makes it to the gulf of Mexico, we could be in store for a supply disruption. Until we know more about this hurricane I'm going to remain on the sidelines. I'm still long term bearish. If the Hurricane does push crude prices higher, I'll be looking for short entries.

Once again today, the crude selling was with heavy volume.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-5.png Size: 10 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #569
  • Aug 27, 2019 12:49pm Aug 27, 2019 12:49pm
Only if the Hurricane gains strength, which is very possible, as it crosses the warm waters.
  • #570
  • Aug 27, 2019 1:08pm Aug 27, 2019 1:08pm
Wow people... anyone have some real stat of hurricane "trading" vs OIL? As I have said many times... weather and also hurricanes.. were my "original" prediction "expertise..." then I moved to FX and other markets... So what would you say is the relation, I could try to model the hurricane path.. did so many years ago.. saved me quite a bit

Please if anyone could make/estimate the scenario.. IF Dorian hits.. at certain level... will cause this price change... ETC... Anyone has that info at hand, out of stat or head or (trading) feel?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #571
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:25pm Aug 27, 2019 2:25pm
Quoting auricforecas
Wow people... anyone have some real stat of hurricane "trading" vs OIL? As I have said many times... weather and also hurricanes.. were my "original" prediction "expertise..." then I moved to FX and other markets... So what would you say is the relation, I could try to model the hurricane path.. did so many years ago.. saved me quite a bit Please if anyone could make/estimate the scenario.. IF Dorian hits.. at certain level... will cause this price change... ETC... Anyone has that info at hand, out of stat or head or (trading) feel?
I went looking to see what I could find. I used this list of 2018 hurricanes and only focused on from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. What I found was surprising. Right before the storm was classified as an official hurricane or tropical storm, crude prices would trend a higher. But then during the period of when the storm is to when it dies out, there was always a pretty big sell off. Almost like buy the rumor, sell the news effect every single time.

Here's an example:

Hurricane Michael got up to a category 5 hurricane in the gulf of mexico before making landfull. You'd think that the supply disruption would send crude prices higher. Just the opposite. Check it out:

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During Oct 7th - Oct 11th Crude (CL) sold off:

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This was the case in every single 2018 US hurricane (east coast) I reviewed.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #572
  • Aug 27, 2019 3:00pm Aug 27, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I went looking to see what I could find. I used this list of 2018 hurricanes and only focused on from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. What I found was surprising. Right before the storm was classified as an official hurricane or tropical storm, crude prices would trend a higher. But then during the period of when the storm is to when it dies out, there was always a pretty big sell off. Almost like buy the rumor, sell the news effect every single time. Here's an example: Hurricane Michael got up to a category 5 hurricane in the gulf...
Nice find man... That is why some companies are investing heavily in the weather prediction Some say the weather forecast might become privatised even The ultime ins.. "INFO" or glimpse of the future... HOWEVER.. I have just checked this DORIAN...and it seems nothing serious as of yet But be glad it is "hurricane" we are talking about.. if it were electricity/fair... not good to trade those since one can become... yea... enron anyone. And yeah, glad we are not in the middle ages.. should someone correctly predict the outcome... they would get medieval on their.. as. an award

EPIC signature btw "Forecaster Stewart" ))
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/271147.shtml

Ok, here is my prediction, it will slow down, decline... to give people a rest... Should give this wonderful relaxing people some rest
Inserted Video


Trade accordingly
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #573
  • Aug 27, 2019 3:49pm Aug 27, 2019 3:49pm
Crude Oil in rally mode after API shows a draw of -11.1M vs -2.5M.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SNAG-3.png Size: 9 KB
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #574
  • Aug 27, 2019 7:35pm Aug 27, 2019 7:35pm
Yeah, if oil was going to spike due to a hurricane I think we are too late to catch that move already. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a selloff when this turns out to be a dud. I say dud only in oil market terms- wish for the best for everyone in its path!
  • #575
  • Aug 28, 2019 11:53am Aug 28, 2019 11:53am
Quoting nastynatty
Yeah, if oil was going to spike due to a hurricane I think we are too late to catch that move already. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a selloff when this turns out to be a dud. I say dud only in oil market terms- wish for the best for everyone in its path!
yeah, kinda suspect this is a pump and dump (unintentional even)... I have checked multiple sources and it SEEMS that it was "easier" to find rather good pre-modeled data... 15years ago! Either I do not know where to look (that good) anymore.. or information became much more restricted.. so some might get an edge.. Although do you know how weather in general is predicted? We are seriously lagging behind.. due to enormous computations.. This is the area in which "too much" computing power is not possible you are always in a lack of... in contrast to trading when LESS IS MORE is often true...

Anyway, from limited data that I gathered... to my standards at least.. I double-down that it is much LESS of a drama.. than they try to PUMP, intentional or not..
Dorian is not that scary at all. Not unless we are talking about the Yates.. but even with him, the show is the main objective

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE...ormid=AL052019
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #576
  • Aug 28, 2019 2:51pm Aug 28, 2019 2:51pm
When crude oil inventories was released, the last thing I expected was crude to drop after all three (gasoline, distillates, and crude) showed a much bigger than expected draw. I've got to look deeper into this unless anybody has any insights on this. I said in my EIA inventory data preview that any upside potential is limited but I didn't think it would be to the extent it was.

Any insights are appreciated. Otherwise, I might dig into this later.

Here's the data:
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Here's the reaction in crude:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #577
  • Aug 28, 2019 8:50pm Aug 28, 2019 8:50pm
This may be naive, but I think this could explain the large draws in inventory. Is it plausible that inventory declining is due to people stocking up prior to the hurricane's possible supply disruption?
  • #578
  • Aug 28, 2019 10:23pm Aug 28, 2019 10:23pm
Quoting nastynatty
This may be naive, but I think this could explain the large draws in inventory. Is it plausible that inventory declining is due to people stocking up prior to the hurricane's possible supply disruption?
I think you are speaking to a small portion of the market so it wouldn’t have a material effect. It may be a contributing factor though.
  • #579
  • Aug 29, 2019 1:49pm Aug 29, 2019 1:49pm
Volume in crude is coming into the CL front-month when the prices are going up. This week there seems to have been a shift. This is indicating some upward pressure on crude prices. The only thing I'd be concerned with is if this recent buying was related to fears about Hurricane Dorian. If so, WTI will sell off hard in the next few days. If not, WTI might be breaking out. Check out the week CL has had:
Attached Image
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #580
  • Aug 29, 2019 7:36pm Aug 29, 2019 7:36pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Volume in crude is coming into the CL front-month when the prices are going up. This week there seems to have been a shift. This is indicating some upward pressure on crude prices. The only thing I'd be concerned with is if this recent buying was related to fears about Hurricane Dorian. If so, WTI will sell off hard in the next few days. If not, WTI might be breaking out. Check out the week CL has had: {image}
And now we wait
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