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Natural gas trading

  • #21
  • Aug 21, 2019 12:25pm Aug 21, 2019 12:25pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} This leads me to my kicker. Try not to let the academics hold you back from testing something. It is certainly an intimidating set of players in the market but there is no better way to learn how shave off your own gains than by experimenting in a smart way. I can tell that you have studied natural gas and have a good background to draw from so if you are not already testing a trading strategy why not start?
I was specifically talking about weather models using machine learning. If so, they'll evolve over time and whatever edge that might exist will change. If the relationship isn't static it just adds a degree of difficulty, not saying I won't try it!

Quoting helgastrxd
Any interest in trying to trade the storage data that is released tomorrow?
Nah, I need to put together a forecasting model first. It won't be ready in time for tomorrow, but maybe next week.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #22
  • Aug 21, 2019 2:07pm Aug 21, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I was specifically talking about weather models using machine learning. If so, they'll evolve over time and whatever edge that might exist will change. If the relationship isn't static it just adds a degree of difficulty, not saying I won't try it! {quote} Nah, I need to put together a forecasting model first. It won't be ready in time for tomorrow, but maybe next week.
Interesthing stuff guys keep us in the loop.

Meanwhile some beainfood:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...oduction-focus
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #23
  • Aug 21, 2019 9:56pm Aug 21, 2019 9:56pm
Keep your heads on square boys and girls,
Natural gas inventories tomorrow at 7:30 AM PDT...........
  • #24
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:51pm Aug 21, 2019 10:51pm
Great thread here. Subscribed!

Quoting tradestar1
Keep your heads on square boys and girls, Natural gas inventories tomorrow at 7:30 AM PDT...........
Yessir! I'm looking for shorting opportunities. Prices haven't been this low since 2016. Until I start hearing that winter will be early or colder than usual, I think downward price pressures persist.

Check out the preview for the storage data: Natural Gas Storage - Aug 22nd Preview. Other views and insights are always welcomed and appreciated.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #25
  • Aug 22, 2019 7:11am Aug 22, 2019 7:11am
Keep in mind that NGAS is falling couple months consecutively. I expect wild moves next couple weeks - probably downward pressure - but short lived. No trend goes forever.
  • #26
  • Aug 22, 2019 7:23am Aug 22, 2019 7:23am
Excellent thread here. While I don't trade Nat Gas hugely after having burnt my fingers way back when Nat gas was crushed by the Amaranth saga.
  • #27
  • Aug 22, 2019 7:34am Aug 22, 2019 7:34am
For the last 2.5 years I’m trading only commodities (primarily US oil, NGAS and Copper) while applying simple rule - buy as low as it goes and ride out the upward move. It happens 1-2 times per year but it pays out very well.

What usually is unknown is the reversal point - this is were most of the “wise-ass” comments comes. The simple fact is - you do not know. No one knows. And until it is a fact - half of the long trend is gone. Just select a price and try each dip with small risk.
  • #28
  • Aug 22, 2019 9:37am Aug 22, 2019 9:37am
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below expectations (60B) in August 16: Actual (59B)
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #29
  • Aug 23, 2019 1:04am Aug 23, 2019 1:04am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #30
  • Aug 23, 2019 5:03pm Aug 23, 2019 5:03pm
Quoting michaelpelly
For the last 2.5 years I’m trading only commodities (primarily US oil, NGAS and Copper) while applying simple rule - buy as low as it goes and ride out the upward move. It happens 1-2 times per year but it pays out very well. What usually is unknown is the reversal point - this is were most of the “wise-ass” comments comes. The simple fact is - you do not know. No one knows. And until it is a fact - half of the long trend is gone. Just select a price and try each dip with small risk.
You are a nat gas AND a copper guy? Sounds like a man with some specialized skills.

I'm curious, which have you been more profitable with in the past few years?
  • #31
  • Aug 24, 2019 8:33am Aug 24, 2019 8:33am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} You are a nat gas AND a copper guy? Sounds like a man with some specialized skills. I'm curious, which have you been more profitable with in the past few years?
US oil :-)

I’m not specialist in gas and copper - just trying to buy commodities that were suppressed for couple (3-6) months. I even do no keep capital in the markets all the time - only when monthly reversal opportunities start to show.

Currently - I think that NGAS futures show good potential next couple weeks.
  • #32
  • Aug 24, 2019 1:50pm Aug 24, 2019 1:50pm
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} US oil :-) I’m not specialist in gas and copper - just trying to buy commodities that were suppressed for couple (3-6) months. I even do no keep capital in the markets all the time - only when monthly reversal opportunities start to show. Currently - I think that NGAS futures show good potential next couple weeks.
Interesting, so am I right to think your trading is based on mean reversion?
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #33
  • Aug 25, 2019 6:49am Aug 25, 2019 6:49am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Interesting, so am I right to think your trading is based on mean reversion?
Yes, I do only reversal speculations - usually on weekly/monthly chart pattern (but mostly just by the price levels) - try to keep it as simple as it can go.
  • #34
  • Aug 25, 2019 7:27am Aug 25, 2019 7:27am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Yes, I do only reversal speculations - usually on weekly/monthly chart pattern (but mostly just by the price levels) - try to keep it as simple as it can go.
Ah ok, now I understand. I have quite a bit of respect for that type of approach. You can make enough money for years in a matter of months but not also not see a trading opportunity for as long. It takes a lot more discipline than most people realize too.
  • #35
  • Aug 29, 2019 10:35am Aug 29, 2019 10:35am
UNITED STATES EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE CHANGE MEETS FORECASTS (60B) IN AUGUST 23
29 August 2019, 17:30
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #36
  • Aug 30, 2019 12:58am Aug 30, 2019 12:58am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #37
  • Aug 30, 2019 2:24pm Aug 30, 2019 2:24pm
Quoting Ll1979
https://youtu.be/hv2KcMJSK9M
Nice find chief! I bookmarked this news source
  • #38
  • Sep 2, 2019 8:33pm Sep 2, 2019 8:33pm
I have a pretty strong feeling that long NatGas is going to be the trade for the remainder of this year. It only becomes a matter of timing the trades.
  • #39
  • Sep 7, 2019 2:56am Sep 7, 2019 2:56am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #40
  • Sep 9, 2019 1:35pm Sep 9, 2019 1:35pm
NG is up 18% over the past 30 days and about 10% of the 18% is since the start of September. NG is still the place to be until this momentum runs its course.
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