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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #541
  • Aug 21, 2019 3:41am Aug 21, 2019 3:41am
Quoting Neil0163
structure, Fibonacci, Fibonacci inversion and psychology levels
I'm with it.

How are you approaching "psychology levels"? Things like big figures, support and resistance?
  • #542
  • Aug 21, 2019 4:18am Aug 21, 2019 4:18am
Quoting Goat
{quote} I'm with it. How are you approaching "psychology levels"? Things like big figures, support and resistance?
The support and resistance comes into the structure levels.
For the psychological levels I use quarter points not sure if you’ve herd of the quarter point theory but take a look see how price reacts to each Quarter point
  • #543
  • Aug 21, 2019 4:46am Aug 21, 2019 4:46am
Ah.

I've always been a lover of the big figures... sounds like quarter points could be four times the fun.
  • #544
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:03am Aug 21, 2019 10:03am
Quoting helgastrxd
The data tomorrow may be less tradable than I initially thought. If the API numbers were any indication the forecasts are somewhat in line this week and inventories will not have a large draw or build. However, my prediction is that tomorrow we will see a draw of somewhere around 4M crude barrels which would cause a mild spike up in WTI. Depending on how the market opens in the morning I will be placing a buy with a moderately tight stop and closing my position before noon.
Well I was pretty close on my prediction for the inventory numbers but close is not always good enough. The run up in the price of WTI early in the day was great but maybe it was what caused the collapse back down in price after the release came out.

The price level is recovering a bit now but the (only mildly) higher draw on inventory than expected actually erased WTI gains since around 5am this morning. Also distillate and gasoline inventory increased rather than the forecasted decrease and those numbers deviated from the forecast more significantly than crude.
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  • #545
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:12am Aug 21, 2019 10:12am
Quoting Goat
We might be opening higher from this Iran stuff over the weekend!! {quote} You're on your own with the straddles but I'll be cheering from the sidelines! I haven't thrown an order into a explosive market since getting burned on a fed statement back in 2009. Scars man, scars.
So I personally took a directional trade today that paid off ok. Thought it was notable though that somebody else played the straddle and fared pretty well.
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  • #546
  • Aug 22, 2019 10:06am Aug 22, 2019 10:06am
Wow PMI sure did a number on oil:
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I'm still short, too:
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  • #547
  • Aug 22, 2019 3:01pm Aug 22, 2019 3:01pm
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Well I was pretty close on my prediction for the inventory numbers but close is not always good enough. The run up in the price of WTI early in the day was great but maybe it was what caused the collapse back down in price after the release came out. The price level is recovering a bit now but the (only mildly) higher draw on inventory than expected actually erased WTI gains since around 5am this morning. Also distillate and gasoline inventory increased rather than the forecasted decrease and those numbers deviated from the forecast more...
What ever happened with the market reaction here? WTI didn't respond in line with the reported data? Or did it?
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I don't get that reaction at all.
  • #548
  • Aug 22, 2019 3:26pm Aug 22, 2019 3:26pm
Quoting C8H18
{quote} What ever happened with the market reaction here? WTI didn't respond in line with the reported data? Or did it? {image} {image} I don't get that reaction at all.
Truth be told, I don't understand this one either. Better than expect and crude dove? That's very strange. I guess the whisper number in the pit was for an even bigger draw.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #549
  • Edited 7:27pm Aug 22, 2019 3:38pm | Edited 7:27pm
Crude (CL) continues to trade in a fairly tight range between $55 and $57. I suspect we'll see it break out of the range tomorrow on Powell's statements. Here's a look at how crude (CL) has performed since the weekly open.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #550
  • Aug 22, 2019 7:36pm Aug 22, 2019 7:36pm
Quoting EventsTrader
Crude (CL) continues to trade in a fairly tight range between $55 and $57. I suspect we'll see it break out of the range tomorrow on Powell's statements. Here's a look at how crude (CL) has performed since the weekly open. {image}
Probably will break out tomorrow, but kinda whipsaw and not sustain that move, right? It might go down and test the level around 52 but I can't see it breaking that one. That may be the larger range we're looking at.
  • #551
  • Aug 22, 2019 8:08pm Aug 22, 2019 8:08pm
Oil
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #552
  • Aug 22, 2019 9:46pm Aug 22, 2019 9:46pm
Quoting C8H18
{quote} What ever happened with the market reaction here? WTI didn't respond in line with the reported data? Or did it? {image} {image} I don't get that reaction at all.
The run up leading up to the numbers was too heavy. That’s the best explanation I got. Ef5 could be right about institutional guys seeing something early and then closing positions after the release. Sounds a bit crooked though doesn’t it?
  • #553
  • Aug 22, 2019 9:47pm Aug 22, 2019 9:47pm
Quoting LCForex
Oil {image}
Did you execute a buy order? I’m spooked out of the oil trade for the time being.
  • #554
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:13pm Aug 22, 2019 11:13pm
I've been noticing pretty low liquidity in crude. I looked it up and noticed a few things worth mentioning.

  1. In the past few months, selling has usually been accompanied with higher volume.
  2. This week's volume has held below the average daily volume, except for Wednesday.
  3. For a Wednesday that was low volume. We usually see a spike when EIA inventory data is released. The spike was lower than usual.
  4. This low volume is attributed to a few things such as light economic data out of China and the US, but most importantly, the markets are waiting for Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Take a look. The top (white bars) are overall daily volume. The bottom (blue and green bars) represent avg daily volume.

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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #555
  • Aug 23, 2019 6:53am Aug 23, 2019 6:53am
Quoting helgastrxd
{quote} Did you execute a buy order? I’m spooked out of the oil trade for the time being.
Right now I am waiting to see how the market develops
Don't believe me just watch!
  • #556
  • Aug 23, 2019 7:37am Aug 23, 2019 7:37am
Hey-oooo! China To Levy Retaliatory Tariffs On Another $75Bln Of US Goods

Happy for my short... almost to tp:
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  • #557
  • Aug 23, 2019 7:38am Aug 23, 2019 7:38am
Quoting LCForex
Oil {image}
Looking good so far!
  • #558
  • Aug 23, 2019 10:07am Aug 23, 2019 10:07am
Get'em Trumpy!!!
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My short thanks you!!
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  • #559
  • Aug 23, 2019 4:25pm Aug 23, 2019 4:25pm
Quoting vpn
Get'em Trumpy!!! {image} My short thanks you!! {image}
Nice trade vpn. Trump also bumped tariffs up 5% to 30% as the markets closed.

If you didn't hit TP yet I think you will on Monday.
  • #560
  • Aug 23, 2019 9:47pm Aug 23, 2019 9:47pm
One of the more important events to unfold today was China specifically targeting US oil for a tariff. Whomever was long Brent and short WTI made out well today!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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