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Nat Gas anyone?

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 21, 2019 10:02am Aug 21, 2019 10:02am
Hello all, starting this new thread on trading natural gas. I don't know if any of you out there are interested in this commodity but I have found it on my current broker (CFD broker) so I image it is spot prices. While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts. I have very similar tools that I use to trade this intrument so I thought I'd open this thread to see if there is any interest here...anyone?
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  • #2
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:08am Aug 21, 2019 10:08am
Just a quick comment to explain the above charts. On the left a weekly chart with tick volume displayed and a (extrapolated) delta volume indicator. On the upper right a daily price chart in the same set up as the weekly chart, and on the lower right a delta volume chart showing daily volume (buying and/or selling) at each price level.

My analysis as this point is that this commodity (after grinding lower most all year) has finally burned out the selling and while there is mild interest in buying most of this buying is profit taking. I haven't yet seen any real buying interest to send prices significantly higher. That being said, I have a long position on that is slightly positive and a second long (lower of the two seen here) waiting to be filled when (if) sellers test their luck at the lows again.
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  • #3
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:23am Aug 21, 2019 10:23am
I'm pretty new to energy, but so far I've found nat gas to be by far the most interesting since it's kind of a play on weather. I'm working on putting together a strategy now.

Quoting DonPato
While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts.
Have you looked at trading the QG contract? It's 1/4th the size of NG so that might be a better option. I plan on trading it at first while I'm learning the instrument better.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #4
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:28am Aug 21, 2019 10:28am
Quoting Ef5
... Have you looked at trading the QG contract? It's 1/4th the size of NG so that might be a better option. ...
I haven't yet...I will look into it although I may have to ask for an upgrade in my cbo feed. Right now I'm using simple globex. I'll check it out though thanks.
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  • #5
  • Aug 21, 2019 10:45am Aug 21, 2019 10:45am
Quoting DonPato
Hello all, starting this new thread on trading natural gas. I don't know if any of you out there are interested in this commodity but I have found it on my current broker (CFD broker) so I image it is spot prices. While I do have access to this on my futures account I don't (can't afford) to trade futures contracts. I have very similar tools that I use to trade this intrument so I thought I'd open this thread to see if there is any interest here...anyone? {image}
Nat gas is a very unique commodity, I'm interested.

Inventory data is released tomorrow, would be fun to see what you think about the price movement before, during and after that news.
  • #6
  • Aug 22, 2019 2:14pm Aug 22, 2019 2:14pm
Hi Don!

This looked like a scary trade today.
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Any luck? How did things turn out?
  • #7
  • Aug 22, 2019 3:23pm Aug 22, 2019 3:23pm
Quoting C8H18
Hi Don! This looked like a scary trade today. {image} Any luck? How did things turn out?
Weird reaction today. It almost looked like one big market order fired off and then NG went right back down. Glad I didn't participate in this one!
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #8
  • Aug 22, 2019 5:28pm Aug 22, 2019 5:28pm
I did some research on the weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage Change today. I found out the EIA actually publishes the 5y historical average storage levels. I decided to plot 2019 weekly storage changes against the 5y averages and saw they're remarkably close! I think this might be my baseline for the model I'm working on.

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #9
  • Aug 22, 2019 9:51pm Aug 22, 2019 9:51pm
Quoting Ef5
I did some research on the weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage Change today. I found out the EIA actually publishes the 5y historical average storage levels. I decided to plot 2019 weekly storage changes against the 5y averages and saw they're remarkably close! I think this might be my baseline for the model I'm working on. {image}
I like it. Let the forward tests and tinkering begin.
  • #10
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:24am Aug 26, 2019 2:24am
So his is where everyone has been having fun?!?


Nice thread Don, looking forward to reading and sharing some ideas and thoughts on here.....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #11
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:23am Aug 26, 2019 9:23am
Quoting MzansiObi
So his is where everyone has been having fun?!? Nice thread Don, looking forward to reading and sharing some ideas and thoughts on here.....
If you like range trading this is where its at...Ranging for the last 18 days. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe this range will break anytime soon...have at it!!
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  • #12
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:27am Aug 26, 2019 9:27am
My long is still hanging in there...however languishing it looks.
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I'm seeing what I term to be a "stable" range. buying at the bottom...selling at the top...spikey around the edges. Just not a whole lot to say...

Most of the market is this way right now. Summer doldrums with no real serious money at work. This is (I think) why the market is reacting so strongly to every little tweet and twitter, that comes out of the mouth of politicians and G7 reports. So little volume at play in the markets, it doesn't take much to cause something to happen.
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  • #13
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:42am Aug 26, 2019 10:42am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} If you like range trading this is where its at...Ranging for the last 18 days. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe this range will break anytime soon...have at it!!
lol agreed, we will take advantage of this range while it holds......had pending buy order that was just missed. Will look to sell the range ceiling. Will catch the next one
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #14
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:49am Aug 27, 2019 8:49am
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This market reminds of an old Sonny and Cher song..."The Range goes on..."

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**Wait!! Did I just show my age??
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  • #15
  • Aug 28, 2019 10:48pm Aug 28, 2019 10:48pm
The EIA will release its latest storage figures and the market will likely get rocked. Check this week's preview: Natural Gas Storage - Aug 29th Preview

Be ready! Good luck fellow traders!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #16
  • Aug 29, 2019 2:58pm Aug 29, 2019 2:58pm
Odd...Nat Gas storage was quite a bit less than expected. And while we did get a nice rise in price, All I'm seeing on the order flow is selling at the end of the day. Even the buying was a bit "unenthusiastic". I have moved my stop up to BE.
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  • #17
  • Sep 4, 2019 11:15am Sep 4, 2019 11:15am
My Nat Gas position has advanced nicely and price is nearing the last major top. Buying continues into the top but it is starting to look like the buying is exhausting. I won't know yet for a day or two, but if I see any selling take over I will take my profit on this trade.
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  • #18
  • Sep 4, 2019 11:25pm Sep 4, 2019 11:25pm
Quoting DonPato
My Nat Gas position has advanced nicely and price is nearing the last major top. Buying continues into the top but it is starting to look like the buying is exhausting. I won't know yet for a day or two, but if I see any selling take over I will take my profit on this trade. {image}
Very impressive entry. Nice job DonPato!

I just posted a preview ahead of tomorrow's Natural Gas storage data. I'm sitting it out. Due to the EIA petroleum data shortly afterwards, any move will have limited potential for any follow through.

Full preview here: Natural Gas Storage - Sept 5th Preview
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #19
  • Sep 5, 2019 8:54am Sep 5, 2019 8:54am
Quoting EventsTrader
{ Very impressive entry. Nice job DonPato! I just posted a preview ahead of tomorrow's Natural Gas storage data. I'm sitting it out. Due to the EIA petroleum data shortly afterwards, any move will have limited potential for any follow through. Full preview here: Natural Gas Storage - Sept 5th Preview
Thank you Events Trader for your words of encouragement....it has been a difficult summer. We are about an hour away from the Nat Gas numbers release, and I am seeing (as I would anticipate) some selling ahead of that announcement which has stalled the advance. (Circles in yellow) I don't anticipate taking any action on this trade until after today is in the books...but lately I have regretted these types of decisions, as price seems to change from every twit and twitter, that comes across the white house "squawk box". So I guess we'll see what happens. I have my stop at just barely break even...and I cannot see any logical swing point to place it under to preserve some profit...so I will just grit my teeth and wait...

At least this trade won't lose.
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  • #20
  • Sep 5, 2019 9:37am Sep 5, 2019 9:37am
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The Nat Gas numbers were just released and showed a greater than expected supply. Consequently selling has increased, and price is responding. I have moved my stop up to lock in at least 150 pips. It is the closest I can make it without choking off the trade. Price has now fallen to the level where the majority of buying occurred yesterday. If we drop down below this level today or tomorrow I will most likely exit and keep what has been made.
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