How to successfully find the breakout fib study. This recent fib went to the top of the range and almost hit 161.8. Targets just shy of the level are likely best.
Longer term correlation check. Looks like in general the sentiment is flood to metal and protection. A look at Switzerland shows the traditional view of safe haven.
SP500 is at a crossover point, as is gold, so both may be in for a reversal. 6:30 bright and early will tell. My goal is 1 trade per diem with the general US economy index. Tempting to get in today again but it gaps overnight consistently. Better to wait.
So if gold stops out I should reverse position on it and also long SP500. It may just be another shorting resistance play though with the SP500, and gold can go as planned to the extensions, where I have a short entry waiting.
Looking back at what the ideal trade would have been created another breakout strategy to maximize large moves.
The first arrow is where I got in long when it spiked down. I thought about getting in short where the next arrow is, the 23.6, but since this level seemed to hold I didn't. This would have been a really good short entry however. I was too long biased. This prevented me from entering 2 opposing positions.
This would have been wise however at price action shows. I could be in both positions now at breakeven, a riskless straddle. Either way it goes I would loose nothing and possibly ride a spike to an exhaustion point. It's a little late to short now, but a not as good of short is lining up as price consolidates toward longer term averages.
From now on no fearing opposing positions. It is really easy to get in at stretch from the average, especially when it lines up with fib levels. The levels should be traded. Then like my long it snaps out of the extreme and stop is moved to breakeven. Get in long at the bottom of the range and short at the top, and let them go until one stops out and the other is a true break of the range, if it only goes a little ways and then reverses, there is play, stop being at breakeven already. Targets fib exhaustion levels or other obvious s and r.
After a little more analysis moved the stop behind the 50 level and added another short entry there. Also the move up is at the 161.8 so there is confluence in this general area.
If it hits the brown 423.6 I will stop out. Likely it will reverse at this point though, from the sma 50 bounce.
I would like to enter short on a pullback but considering how gold spikes once this triangle is broken there may be no turning back to get in later.
Possibly I could add to my position if it hits the sma 50 and continues up. The timing with this one seems not to easy to predict so I like to get orders in ahead of time instead of wait for price action. Not confident enough to place an order yet until it gets closer to the triangle.
Couldn't click the button fast enough, stupid platform wouldn't place the order right, with the delay, I missed getting in on the 23.6.
Should have had a preset entry order. Perfect setup.
My thought process was if it is going to reverse it will likely at least bounce at the 23.6 and it did. I could have a breakeven position. Then if it hit the top of the range again would have been another entry if that one stopped out.
Now it is after hours so perhaps it will consolidate and another entry will form with momentum picking up tomorrow at the bell.
From watching live traders I have learned they all keep an eye on the SPY, and wont trade against it's general momentum. Extra edge. It's like an indicator with it's own trade setups.
More fib analysis. The goal being to get in on the pullback and ride to the 423.6 (arrow).
The fib is valid as long as the 23.6 holds, as in this case. This is the best place to get in risk wise, since a stop can be placed at the 0 or just beyond that, in case the price is just in a range.
Spike, consolidate into a triangle, form a fib, then break from the tip of the triangle to the extensions.
If it retraces it will likely stop me out so I moved the stop up to price to take my winnings. Deleting that old entry order. Hitting the sma 50 on the daily. Maybe a good short.
This one the 23.6 wasn't to the pip but it never broke 0 and now it is at 423.6. I will wait before I move my stop up though, it may consolidate and retrace a bit before continuation down, considering this first butterfly is exhausted.
Broke the previous low, that is good for downward momentum.
