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The Swamp

  • #39,501
  • Aug 19, 2019 4:17pm Aug 19, 2019 4:17pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ate-contrarian

Hasenstab's huge bet against U.S. Treasuries is getting wiped out
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #39,502
  • Aug 19, 2019 5:55pm Aug 19, 2019 5:55pm
Quoting DMA Trader
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ate-contrarian Hasenstab's huge bet against U.S. Treasuries is getting wiped out
bond investors are usually the "smart money" before a recession. It looks like he may have backed the wrong horse. He has 115 billion dollars, so I will wait for the movie. Having 115 billion to play with, makes him no dummy. These guys are usually the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes they trip..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #39,503
  • Aug 19, 2019 7:17pm Aug 19, 2019 7:17pm
8/20/2019 levels

FP R3 ----------1.1127
RU R3 ----------1.1115
FP R2 ----------1.1113
FP R1 ----------1.1104
RU R2 ----------1.1098
FP PP ----------1.1089
RU R1 ----------1.1088
FP S1 ----------1.1075
RU S1 ----------1.1068
FP S2 ----------1.1066
WP S1 ----------1.1066
RU S2 ----------1.1057
FP S3 ----------1.1051
MP S1 ----------1.1051
RU S3 ----------1.1040
WP S2 ----------1.1027
  • #39,504
  • Aug 19, 2019 10:53pm Aug 19, 2019 10:53pm
One of my favourite patterns. A bear flag or what some call a bullish compression. I expect a false breakout of the flag to the upside for a few pips and then smash down to the lows of 1.1065. I expect that low to be taken out but after that I don't know what would happen. I will make sure to sell the false spike up out of the flag. More conservative is to wait for the break below the flag then short! Another plus for this planned trade is that N.Y. broke down long after London was gone, so I expect London to test the very lows again before any dream of an up move.
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  • #39,505
  • Aug 19, 2019 11:20pm Aug 19, 2019 11:20pm
nice

might see something in the next 2 hours than down. or just down from 1.109 level
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #39,506
  • Aug 19, 2019 11:22pm Aug 19, 2019 11:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bond investors are usually the "smart money" before a recession. It looks like he may have backed the wrong horse. He has 115 billion dollars, so I will wait for the movie. Having 115 billion to play with, makes him no dummy. These guys are usually the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes they trip..
Isn't it typical after a 2/10 inversion for bond prices to go down and yields up about 12 months later? I'd say he's gonna make a ton off these bonds when stocks go down and he's collecting on those shorts.
  • #39,507
  • Aug 20, 2019 12:41am Aug 20, 2019 12:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bond investors are usually the "smart money" before a recession. It looks like he may have backed the wrong horse. He has 115 billion dollars, so I will wait for the movie. Having 115 billion to play with, makes him no dummy. These guys are usually the smartest guys in the room. Sometimes they trip..
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #39,508
  • Aug 20, 2019 1:41am Aug 20, 2019 1:41am
Question for boulder and gator.
When you have closed out most of your positions, how do you reload?
Do you reload daily?
Or do you reload heavily when the price is right, then take profit bit by bit?
  • #39,509
  • Aug 20, 2019 1:43am Aug 20, 2019 1:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} GU; fridays lc was 2144... today lower at 2137.. I expect a run toward today's lows or deeper with trend (within the next 24 h).. 4h support atm is 2041.. 2040 may be enough of a bounce, some R 2144 likely. possible low pip risk entry after 2140
Just to make sure I'm on the same page, London Close is at 16:30 LT, when LSE closes?

Thanks!
  • #39,510
  • Aug 20, 2019 2:59am Aug 20, 2019 2:59am
Just woke up ,, close some short here 1073, +10
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  • #39,511
  • Aug 20, 2019 3:00am Aug 20, 2019 3:00am
from Ransqawk..
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  • #39,512
  • Aug 20, 2019 3:01am Aug 20, 2019 3:01am
Quoting thelws
Question for boulder and gator. When you have closed out most of your positions, how do you reload? Do you reload daily? Or do you reload heavily when the price is right, then take profit bit by bit?
I use the same position size reload when price is right.
  • #39,513
  • Aug 20, 2019 3:13am Aug 20, 2019 3:13am
Quoting Boulder
8/20/2019 levels FP R3 ----------1.1127 RU R3 ----------1.1115 FP R2 ----------1.1113 FP R1 ----------1.1104 RU R2 ----------1.1098 FP PP ----------1.1089 RU R1 ----------1.1088 FP S1 ----------1.1075 RU S1 ----------1.1068 FP S2 ----------1.1066 WP S1 ----------1.1066 RU S2 ----------1.1057 FP S3 ----------1.1051 MP S1 ----------1.1051 RU S3 ----------1.1040 WP S2 ----------1.1027
next to print 1089 or 1068..

RU R3 ----------1.1115
FP R2 ----------1.1113
FP R1 ----------1.1104
RU R2 ----------1.1098
FP PP ----------1.1089
RU R1 ----------1.1088
FP S1 ----------1.1075
RU S1 ----------1.1068
FP S2 ----------1.1066
WP S1 ----------1.1066
RU S2 ----------1.1057
FP S3 ----------1.1051
MP S1 ----------1.1051
RU S3 ----------1.1040
  • #39,514
  • Aug 20, 2019 3:31am Aug 20, 2019 3:31am
I should be selling UJ but that pair can sometimes be mad. Lol... then add Boulder's option expiry for it at 106.90. Makes me not want to sell here. Maybe I'll sell it there (106.9x) for a double top? Time will tell.
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  • #39,515
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:14am Aug 20, 2019 4:14am
Quoting becks.200
I think Friday's and today's bull impulses are not enough to push the price to 1140-1170 area yet, so 1065-1070 needs to be re-visited before.. LC closed lower than Friday's, 1093 vs 1095. {image}
I think, I can forget about 1140-1170 for this week, unless something very major happens.

The highest it can go back might be limited to 1100 now
  • #39,516
  • Aug 20, 2019 4:17am Aug 20, 2019 4:17am
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending BUY {image}
Did not believe yesterday, but very possible today, good luck!!
  • #39,517
  • Aug 20, 2019 5:04am Aug 20, 2019 5:04am
Quoting Happy_Sniper
{quote} Just to make sure I'm on the same page, London Close is at 16:30 LT, when LSE closes? Thanks!
not that the really close with aftermarket trades.. the bell rings at 11:30 est (some distortion with daylight savings not being in sink with u.s. twice a year)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #39,518
  • Edited 5:28am Aug 20, 2019 5:17am | Edited 5:28am
Quoting WhipKream
{quote} Isn't it typical after a 2/10 inversion for bond prices to go down and yields up about 12 months later? I'd say he's gonna make a ton off these bonds when stocks go down and he's collecting on those shorts.
No doubt he is betting on a nice drop in equities. The tax breaks have got u.s. companies buying back their own stocks (pumping stock prices). We still sit in a 2.5% economy. Stocks rise other than that, seem to be on thin air. After all the hype, the tax cuts made stocks rise. But the middle class wages are still stagnant. AJ indicated a pop in this bubble months back.. I doubt this bell can be unrung.

Companies I guess will continue to buy stocks with extra money. But at what point does the real 2.5% economy weigh in on those buybacks. It appears to be a sugar high at the expense of a higher deficit. Oops the middle class gets screwed again.. When the government borrowed a half a trillion $ for a unpaid for tax break. it cost about 8k per heartbeat in the u.s. At a promise of 2k for the middle class in a tax break. Correct me if wrong. How does giving me 2k, while borrowing 8k. on my credit card help me? LOL voodoo math. Now each heartbeat owes 8k each more, plus interest. This 8K is added each year. Proxy wise, 6k worth of stocks bought that the middle class dont own ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #39,519
  • Aug 20, 2019 6:03am Aug 20, 2019 6:03am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} next to print 1089 or 1068.. RU R3 ----------1.1115 FP R2 ----------1.1113 FP R1 ----------1.1104 RU R2 ----------1.1098 FP PP ----------1.1089 RU R1 ----------1.1088 FP S1 ----------1.1075 RU S1 ----------1.1068 FP S2 ----------1.1066 WP S1 ----------1.1066 RU S2 ----------1.1057 FP S3 ----------1.1051 MP S1 ----------1.1051 RU S3 ----------1.1040
thanks Boulder,

My thought is the today's low will be +-5 pips from MP S1 and FP S3, so you can close your 1052 short
  • #39,520
  • Aug 20, 2019 6:05am Aug 20, 2019 6:05am
gu may bounce some against 1.2063.. some 4h support to beat. mini reload for me..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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