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Joined Jul 2006
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Status: Senior Trader
|149 Posts
the markets are responding to fed comments regarding interest rates, see bloomberg, the fact that the movements are slow is typical of the weeks trading before fomc and nfp
the markets are responding to fed comments regarding interest rates, see bloomberg, the fact that the movements are slow is typical of the weeks trading before fomc and nfp
Ignored
Thanks. I saw it already , i posted the link few hours ago on my thread.
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Joined Jul 2006
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Status: Senior Trader
|149 Posts
yes but they have not called an end to interest rate rises, which in itself adds value to the dollar. Remember as we are on the ramp up to christmas and with fall fuel prices the data releases are somewhat conflicting at the moment, and if there is enough scope for an interest rate rise, ie falling energy prices adds fuel to inflation along with increase productivity, imports and employment, with little effect on housing, then yes they will increase interest rates.
I like other traders have planned there trades for the week already, and i like many others will not be trading before fomc, however if this release adds further strength to the dollar then i will wait for the price settle and go long on the run up to USD durable goods data
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Joined Jul 2006
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Status: Senior Trader
|149 Posts
you dont need a text book, just look at the numbers and watch for the trend prior to release, last week netted me over 3000 pips, and yes some trades were multiple contracts, and if i am wrong i dont trade ( i have been wrong twice over the last two weeks) but never lost a single pip
Also because there are so many thoughts on economics i would not wish to enter into a debate.
cable has shown some crazy downsigns since oct 3 and especially the retracement back up. News usually acts as the catalyst, watch on Wed when int rates get increased to 5.5!!! Even if don't, fed will signal upcoming increase and bam - research the possibility and position yourself prior so that your risk for the announcement can be virtually nil. I'm already short at 8820, should be enough room til wed. I'm sure that there will be other possibilities to position yourself prior to the release.
"Interest-rate futures show traders see about a 12 percent chance the Fed will raise the benchmark rate to 5.5 percent at its Jan. 30-31 meeting"
-Bloomberg
So where do you see the risk in this statement-in one direction this figure can move 12%. In the other it can move 88%. Neither extreme will happen, but, an increase in bets to raising int is much more probable so think about it and plan for this possibility, especially if it can really move the market.
Somebody understands why the market is so weird and slow today ?
