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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #3,181
  • Aug 17, 2019 4:22am Aug 17, 2019 4:22am
Hi
Next week is going to be interesting. I expect a new fast move, correction seems to be at the end.
Below 54.50 possible sell (plan)
Upper 55.75 possible buy ( if the price breaks this level than I refuse from short strategy)
Generally my plan 350-500 pips down, but the price is standing in flat and can go easily in both sides.
  • #3,182
  • Aug 17, 2019 11:49am Aug 17, 2019 11:49am
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,183
  • Aug 17, 2019 3:36pm Aug 17, 2019 3:36pm
All bull over Wednesday news.

54.16 make or break line for Mr Bull
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,184
  • Aug 18, 2019 3:17pm Aug 18, 2019 3:17pm
A general question, is WTI is driven by technical or mostly fundamental? Reason being, Oil is always in news for some reason. Appreciate the views.
  • #3,185
  • Aug 18, 2019 4:39pm Aug 18, 2019 4:39pm
Quoting tush1822
A general question, is WTI is driven by technical or mostly fundamental? Reason being, Oil is always in news for some reason. Appreciate the views.
Most traders here seem to use technical indications, but always with some tracking of news.
  • #3,186
  • Aug 18, 2019 4:41pm Aug 18, 2019 4:41pm
The week ended with choppy sideways movement. Now could go either way, but equity weakness could strongly affect WTI.
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  • #3,187
  • Aug 18, 2019 6:01pm Aug 18, 2019 6:01pm
How is the oil traded? Is it different from Forex and/or index?

Can VSA or volume based trading method be beneficial?

The reading I asked is I imagine in Forex market, there are lots of different players that do both long and short, in stock market, institution or individual usually do buying. Is WTI the same? Is it traded by big institution only or also individual investor or speculator?
  • #3,188
  • Aug 18, 2019 6:46pm Aug 18, 2019 6:46pm
The futures market determines price. Every other oil instrument is a derivative of the futures.

I can't trade oil with a forex account here in the US. There are etf's that you long or short oil and also options.
  • #3,189
  • Aug 18, 2019 7:55pm Aug 18, 2019 7:55pm
Quoting tush1822
A general question, is WTI is driven by technical or mostly fundamental? Reason being, Oil is always in news for some reason. Appreciate the views.
Not that this is helpful but I feel like it depends on your timeframe and perspective... Curious what other people have to say?
  • #3,190
  • Aug 18, 2019 10:32pm Aug 18, 2019 10:32pm
Quoting tush1822
A general question, is WTI is driven by technical or mostly fundamental? Reason being, Oil is always in news for some reason. Appreciate the views.
WTI driven by supply and demand and like most commoduties is affected by the USD. Like Timingchain mentioned we mostly trade it technically but with global slowdown/ US Chine tradewar the fundamentals are gaining ground layely.

To track the fundamentals watch the items below.

  1. APi inventory numbers
  2. EIA inventory numbers
  3. EIA REPORTS
  4. OPEC REPORTS

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,191
  • Aug 19, 2019 12:38am Aug 19, 2019 12:38am
Quoting sponge
{quote} Ation replay ...watching 55.30 for a break
We could be on a 3rd wave suggesting much more upside, 55.30 is still the party pooper if we go below.

Smaller frames look like they could limit the upside, maybe side ways to up.

Initial upside target 56.85 but bearish sub 55.30

My 2p
Good luck
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,192
  • Aug 19, 2019 1:01am Aug 19, 2019 1:01am
Some interesting news from OPEC. It looks like it's contributing to some recent bullishness:


Quote
OPEC Turns Bearish On Oil
Quote

By Nick Cunningham - Aug 18, 2019, 6:00 PM CDT

OPEC sees a “somewhat bearish” outlook for the rest of 2019, even as supplies remain tight in the short run.
In its latest report, OPEC only slightly downgraded its forecast for global oil demand, lowering it to 1.10 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2019, down only a minor 0.04 mb/d from a month earlier. That estimate could end up being too optimistic, and OPEC itself said the forecast is “subject to downside risks stemming from uncertainties...
  • #3,193
  • Aug 19, 2019 1:04am Aug 19, 2019 1:04am
Quoting tush1822
A general question, is WTI is driven by technical or mostly fundamental? Reason being, Oil is always in news for some reason. Appreciate the views.
I always use technicals

API numbers out each Wednesday usually affect the markets but it's difficult (for me) to judge how the markets will react.

Experimenting with Wednesday high/lows see chart
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,194
  • Aug 19, 2019 1:48am Aug 19, 2019 1:48am
Quoting luckyvictor
How is the oil traded? Is it different from Forex and/or index? Can VSA or volume based trading method be beneficial? The reading I asked is I imagine in Forex market, there are lots of different players that do both long and short, in stock market, institution or individual usually do buying. Is WTI the same? Is it traded by big institution only or also individual investor or speculator?
Like Deuce already mentioned everything is derived from the futures market. IMHO a VSA or volume based trading method works best on centralized exchanges (Futures). A centralised exchange lists detailed info to every market participant. OTC products like Forex and CFD for example are decentralized and will only show you a piece to the pie (the more LPs Liquitidy Provider your broker got the more info you got).

Some background info:

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/c...crude-oil.html
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,195
  • Aug 19, 2019 5:01am Aug 19, 2019 5:01am
55.06 is the low in?
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,196
  • Aug 19, 2019 5:08am Aug 19, 2019 5:08am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Like Deuce already mentioned everything is derived from the futures market. IMHO a VSA or volume based trading method works best on centralized exchanges (Futures). A centralised exchange lists detailed info to every market participant. OTC products like Forex and CFD for example are decentralized and will only show you a piece to the pie (the more LPs Liquitidy Provider your broker got the more info you got). Some background info: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/c...crude-oil.html
I am just thinking, for forex, literally anyone can trade it, money can come in and out immediately, and since it is in a pair, so it can really go in any direction anytime, of course, there are too many factors that can move the trend. And when it moves in one direction, it could really be an opportunity for the opposite to pick up bargain. And like you said, it is decentralized, so volume doesn't help.

For stock, usually the concept is to buy (unless hedge fund short it), so the bias is slight on the Long side, and the down event happens when big firms book their profit, or economy indicator shows a sign of change, or trump tweet. When you physically buy the share, it is unlikely that you sell it the next day, stock is meant ot be long term investment, therefore it seems like it is safer to play the long side, and if you see big volume drag the price down, probably is a sign of big money leaving the market, individual may then follow.

In the case of Oil, what I think is, similar to stock, big institutions drives the market, and if they buy into oil, unlikely they sell it the next minute or next day, and vice versa, so probably the volume can help us understand the intraday trend and for the next couple day.

What is your opinion?
  • #3,197
  • Aug 19, 2019 5:40am Aug 19, 2019 5:40am
Volume

Read some books on volume, made no sense to me I was totally bewildered

WTI giving nothing away volume wise at the moment but a lot of it is hanging around 55.30
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,198
  • Aug 19, 2019 6:04am Aug 19, 2019 6:04am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} I am just thinking, for forex, literally anyone can trade it, money can come in and out immediately, and since it is in a pair, so it can really go in any direction anytime, of course, there are too many factors that can move the trend. And when it moves in one direction, it could really be an opportunity for the opposite to pick up bargain. And like you said, it is decentralized, so volume doesn't help. For stock, usually the concept is to buy (unless hedge fund short it), so the bias is slight on the Long side, and the down event happens...
Haven't done much research on Volume and OIL since at the moment i only trade WTIUSD CFD (OTC derived product). In the future i would like to trade futures.

WTI mainly moves on supply and demand and the USD.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,199
  • Aug 19, 2019 6:08am Aug 19, 2019 6:08am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Haven't done much research on Volume and OIL since at the moment i only trade WTIUSD CFD (OTC derived product). In the future i would like to trade futures. WTI mainly moves on supply and demand and the USD.
so what is your strategy of trading WTI?
  • #3,200
  • Aug 19, 2019 6:32am Aug 19, 2019 6:32am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Haven't done much research on Volume and OIL since at the moment i only trade WTIUSD CFD (OTC derived product). In the future i would like to trade futures. WTI mainly moves on supply and demand and the USD.
I don't pay much attention to volume. Oil is so liquid that most big moves are on heavy volume anyways.

That is why I like trading oil. Supply/demand, USD, macro. Much easier than trading equities.
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