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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #3,161
  • Aug 15, 2019 1:05am Aug 15, 2019 1:05am
Quoting Goat
last week was positive, and we usually get multiple positive months weeks in a row.
My crack analysis seems to have been correct, but the again I had a 50% chance of getting it right.
Attached Image


Whatever that's worth.

Either way I'm getting a bit hammered on my long... but there's hope in sight with the rally we're seeing in the last couple hours.
  • #3,162
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:07am Aug 15, 2019 2:07am
Quoting sponge
News is used ? Last weeks API numbers -8.5 the market tanked. This weeks Api numbers +2.4 the market tanked.... but at least we may have set the low this time. WTI? more like WTF Key levels, BRN 57.67, WTI 51.97 bearish below but I think we could have a sizable swing up from hereabouts {image}
Once again the market tanks on news, I don't think it matters which way the news goes

Swing traders need to factor in wobbly Wendnesday
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,163
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:22am Aug 15, 2019 2:22am
I think we have a slight negative slant on volume at the moment, bulls need to close over WTI 55.30 I think.

BRN still has a bullish signal for 63 area if we close over 59.35...we'll see

Just my 2p

Good luck
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,164
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:25am Aug 15, 2019 2:25am
H4. No channel extremes.

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  • #3,165
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:45am Aug 15, 2019 2:45am
Quoting derekw
H4. No channel extremes. {image}
Do the signals re-paint with TMA + CG mladen ?

Taget bands seem to match up but signals re-paint.
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,166
  • Aug 15, 2019 12:30pm Aug 15, 2019 12:30pm
Think it's been testing 54.16 all week, more down side if it breaks but we have a possible wave 3 to come

Some Elliot Wave doodles ....
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,167
  • Aug 15, 2019 1:40pm Aug 15, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Do the signals re-paint with TMA + CG mladen ? Taget bands seem to match up but signals re-paint. {image}
Hi Sponge. No, they don't repaint, but they can re-draw. For example if the channel moves extremely downward, a previous bar may now enter the channel. If you observe this on say M1, you'll see what I mean.
  • #3,168
  • Aug 15, 2019 1:44pm Aug 15, 2019 1:44pm
WTI just broke 54.00. Is anyone going to short or in a short?
  • #3,169
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:53pm Aug 15, 2019 2:53pm
Quoting Ll1979
Small long nasdaq around pivot point {image}
Hi Ll197

Which broker do you user please? I see that you can do mini lot on nasdaq
  • #3,170
  • Aug 15, 2019 3:04pm Aug 15, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting C8H18
WTI just broke 54.00. Is anyone going to short or in a short?
No long term shorts for now imo.

I think 54.47 and below could change the outlook

Good luck
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,171
  • Aug 15, 2019 4:13pm Aug 15, 2019 4:13pm
Red Arrow remains in control.
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  • #3,172
  • Aug 15, 2019 8:16pm Aug 15, 2019 8:16pm
Quoting timingchain
Red Arrow remains in control. {image}
I agree. Crude has some downside risk. Ever since reaching a 2019 high, it's been falling. The global slowdown keeps presenting itself in the data and crude/alternative energy supply isn't an issue right now like it was before the last recession. As long as growth continues to slow in the largest consuming countries, Crude will continue lower without extreme cuts from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations.

It keeps on trying to test the $51 level (CME futures). I think it'll test that level again in the next week or two. Here's how crude has fallen since those 2019 highs:
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #3,173
  • Aug 16, 2019 12:44am Aug 16, 2019 12:44am
Quoting luckyvictor
{quote} Hi Ll197 Which broker do you user please? I see that you can do mini lot on nasdaq
Hi luckyvictor,

My broker is ATC Broker UK and i was trading the ndxusd cfd.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,174
  • Aug 16, 2019 12:52am Aug 16, 2019 12:52am
Quoting sponge
I think we have a slight negative slant on volume at the moment, bulls need to close over WTI 55.30 I think. BRN still has a bullish signal for 63 area if we close over 59.35...we'll see Just my 2p Good luck
Ation replay ...watching 55.30 for a break
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,175
  • Aug 16, 2019 1:11am Aug 16, 2019 1:11am
OIL: DEMAND CONCERNS ARE THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR MARKETS – ANZ
16 August 2019, 07:52

ANZ analysts suggest that it’s clear that concerns over oil demand have become the driving factor in oil markets with recent escalation in trade tension making the sentiment overwhelmingly bearish.

Key Quotes
“With a trade deal looking highly unlikely in the short term, bullish supply factors are likely to remain a secondary concern. As such, we have cut our 3mth price target for Brent to USD65/bbl.”
“Trade talks took an abrupt turn when US President Trump announced a 10% tariff on a further USD300bn of Chinese imports. And while he has subsequently delayed its implementation, it’s clear both parties are still far apart. We recently looked at the implications of a global recession on oil demand. While that isn’t our base case, its probability is rising by the week.”
“We still believe fundamentals are constructive, with the market tightening in H2 2019. Supply constraints persist, and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to further restraint is highly supportive. Refining margins are also elevated, and likely to see further upside as IMO buying increases. However, they are likely to take a back seat while the trade conflict persists.”
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,176
  • Aug 16, 2019 1:30am Aug 16, 2019 1:30am
Quoting derekw
{quote} Hi Sponge. No, they don't repaint, but they can re-draw. For example if the channel moves extremely downward, a previous bar may now enter the channel. If you observe this on say M1, you'll see what I mean.
Yes I see what you mean re-draw not re-paint so you could end up with a cluster of signals.

I think Trading Bands must be an early version of your indi.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #3,177
  • Aug 16, 2019 5:37am Aug 16, 2019 5:37am
WTI RISES 2% ABOVE $ 55.50 AS RECESSION FEARS EBB, US RIGS DATA EYED
16 August 2019, 12:42

 

  1. Oil cheers risk recovery, as better US data offset recession woes.
  2. Swelling US crude inventories, US-China trade anxiety to cap upside?
  3. Markets await fresh US Rigs Count data for next direction.

WTI (futures on Nymex) is seen building on its Thursday’s recovery, now extending gains beyond the 55 handle, as oil traders benefit from an improvement in the risk sentiment amid receding US recession fears and rallying Treasury yields.

Further, expectations the OPEC+ will continue its efforts to balance the market and support the prices, add to the bullish moves in the black gold, as the bulls gear up for a test of 57 levels once again amid ongoing geopolitical concerns between the UK and Iran over the tanker incident.

Will it sustain the upside ahead of US data?
Despite the bullish momentum, the unexpected build in the US crude stockpiles, as shown by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, combined with oil demand growth concerns amid ongoing US-China trade spat could keep the upside in check.

The immediate focus now shifts towards the US Consumer Sentiment Index and Baker Hughes Oil Rigs Count data due later in the NA session for a fresh trading impetus.

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,178
  • Aug 16, 2019 6:05am Aug 16, 2019 6:05am
Bullish crossover, but follow-through is uncertain.

EDIT
It appears that postings in this thread no longer show in the main FF window. If this is the case, it would mean less traffic into this thread. Has anyone else verified this change?
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  • #3,179
  • Aug 16, 2019 6:28am Aug 16, 2019 6:28am
Quoting timingchain
Bullish crossover, but follow-through is uncertain. EDIT It appears that postings in this thread no longer show in the main FF window. If this is the case, it would mean less traffic into this thread. Has anyone else verified this change? {image}
Yup it moved to the energyexch. We can always make a new general trading thread on the main FF if we would like that.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #3,180
  • Aug 16, 2019 6:46am Aug 16, 2019 6:46am
OPEC: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS SEEMS SOMEWHAT BEARISH FOR REST OF 2019
16 August 2019, 14:23

In its monthly Oil Market Report for August, OPEC said that the outlook for oil market fundamentals seems "somewhat bearish" for the rest of 2019.
Crude oil price came under pressure on OPEC's remarks and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate erased a large portion of its daily gains. As of writing, the WTI was still up 0.5% on the day at $54.95. Below are some additional takeaways from the publication, as reported by Reuters.
"OPEC leaves forecast for 2020 global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.14 million bpd."
"OPEC cuts forecast for 2019 global oil demand growth to 1.10 million bpd (previous forecast 1.14 mbpd) on economic slowdown."
"OPEC, citing secondary sources, says its July oil output fell by 246,000 bpd m/m to 29.61 mbpd due to supply cut deal, involuntary losses."
"Saudi Arabia tells OPEC it cut July crude output to 9.58 mbpd, down 202,000 bpd m/m."
"OPEC sees 2020 demand for its crude averaging 29.41 mbpd, up 140,000 bpd from previous forecast, on lower non-OPEC supply view."
"OECD oil inventories rose in June and stood 67 million barrels above latest 5-year average – the level originally targeted by supply cut deal."
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
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