Newbie Student Technical Analysis Group

About Fakeout



Thanks IF, so it's not a true engulf if it takes out a pivot high which is just a test of the original supply left (FL) Ah!!! Need to engulf whatever the pivot or swing is reacting to, so the original levels orders get hit and breached.
Thanks again. -chica


That's right Chica, we always look to what S or D are reactions to, rather than just S or D themselves. - IF

For clarification, are you saying an area that appears to be SD may just be a reaction to an area some way back, and therefore is best ignored (all though it may still cause a reaction) ? - JimN


This is my understanding of it. Explanation in image. Sorry at work and away from charts .

Maybe someone can explain it better, but thats how I understood it after IF's reply. I hope it is because it makes sense to me now....Than again I could be wrong. - Chica

About Engulfing

Well I saw your post. Now lets say that price engulfed that extreme high of the orginal base/ flag what ever you wanna call it. That would be a signal to go long, being there is no more supply at that level? - dappa


Hey Dappa,

If it engulfed the actual (orginal) supply say the flag, than yes I would be looking for a trade if we get a nice retracement to the orginal area of the move. ie: a good level of demand. The engulf would mean a shift in direction. This is my understanding so dont take it as gospel - chica


Hi Venice, it's good to see you around again!

Trading supply and demand blindly certainly is gambling, and that's always made me feel very uncomfortable.
That's what made me look deeper into the actions of the ITs. Simply studying them and decoding their algorithms has made it very clear that supply and demand are just as much a smokescreen as the fib or the trendline or countless other conventional analysis tools.
They're made to work sometimes and not work others.
If you can look beyond S/D, you'll see that the Flag Limit is the only true place to look for PA for a trade. Trade these levels and you're taking gambling out of your method.

Chica, you are so on the right track with what you're doing
I'm really looking forward to seeing where you go from here! IF

GBP JPY


I like

About Retest


It is a good strategy to wait for price action to retest any identified turnaround zone (e.g. S/R, OD, FL and other pivots) after a news item and trade in the major technical direction of the market as identified on an HTF long before the news item.

Never chase the price and never be fooled by a sudden strong move on account of any news item.

Let the heat, wave or storm ebb or simmer first.

Don't Fight a one way market!

How would you know if market is going on a one way rampage or not?

Its tricky... but if something keeps going and going and going.. You don't wanna step in front of it.

When dollar is dumping against everything... When good news comes out.. but it doesn't go up.

When market just feels like its one way.. Don't force a trade... Wait for a better day.

Spotting a one way market is tricky.. and comes with a lot of chart time and looking at higher time frames.

Even then its hard..for example I knew Friday was one way... Stocks were flying to new all time highs... Gold was flying too, Dollar was down against every major currency..

Wasn't the time to fight and get long some USD's.. Even with good data.

Remember if going long on good data worked 100% of the time.. we would all be rich and trading would be a lot easier then it is..

Trading is more like poker.. Trying to read what other traders are gonna do.

If your uncertain... its okay to wait for more info.. you don't have to play every hand...

And its okay if you miss a trade. - bloodpoodle

Nothing works 100%. If it did trading would be easy.

There are many types of technical Analysis. Some is better then others.

Basically the goal is to put the odds in your favor, not to achieve a win every single trade.

Also to define your risk... and to choose targets. There is no holy grail setup.

I think outside the box.. I don't use trendlines, channels, chart patterns like double bottom. I study Spikes flat consolidations and slow grinds..

And I've seen so many of them I know what to do when I see them. How price is moving is whispering trades to me. I

'm also picky about the time of day I trade. I don't trade 24/7.

I wait until I think the liquidity and volatility are right for my setups. - bloodpoodle

There is no point having a winning method if you cannot implement it without unfailing discipline and consistency.

One bad day and loss of control and your account can be destroyed.

You must have both a winning method and excellent discipline & consistency.

There is way too much emphasis in this forum (and everywhere else to be fair) on method over discipline/consistency/emotional stability/risk control.

By far the most important element of discipline is in risk control.

You can lose discipline to forget your method and do something completely off the cuff if you want as long as you stick to your risk control.

That way you cannot do worse than lose a standard amount.

If you stick to your entry method but lose discipline in your risk control you can be destroyed.

To became a profitable trader learn discipline, risk control and consistency.

There was nothing wrong with any basic method but you will lose until you got these elements in place.

After that, more consistent profitability came almost naturally.

Traders mainly fail as they don't have the right education and have a million indicators about price action itself.

One aspect /One context of a trade. That's the scam. Stochs, MACD, fibs, TDI, Pivot, Gann, momentum, are all about price action meaning price going up or down.

Think about it properly they tell you nothing of worth.

But even hardcore discipline people with risk management skills only can make some money in forex.

But with bad education people give up as its all too hard (and it is)

Knowing the right king of zone looks like before it's printed, need experience and knowledge.

This can give you a chance to be in on the move early as the PA forms. Nothing to do with indicators. It's all about PA in (hopefully) good locations.

To be honest these are the most unreliable trades since they've not yet confirmed as zones. Try and keep a very tight stop on these entries.



NOTE

The main thing is finding the quality level and then some form of PA you recognise with a 2 to 1 risk reward target.
Then you can look at Daily / H4 to see if the level lines up with the overall direction.

With ranging market almost any zone will work on short term

When the market decides to make a break you need to be very aware of the higher time-frame action.

Lower TF zones against the break can get smashed to pieces.

You must be able to switch from range play (both directions) to fast trending (in one way).

You have to be able adapt to all situations.

Set up begin with looking at H1 (or even H4) for the main direction and then drop to M15 to get tighter entries.

The two chart below shows where to look for , at H1 Price Action for direction (base) and red dotted line as a rough target.

We will try to get a tighter entry with this direction.

But, most of the time I only look and just stick on H1 and take the Price Action.... Less stress and hassle.

A combination of fundamental and technical analysis can help a foreign currency exchange trader to get the real picture of an investment.

With the help of fundamental analysis a trader can determine the value of the investment in intrinsic term while technical analysis is concerned with more short term aspects.

A trader needs to evaluate various short term indicators or technical parts to determine the best entry and exit price.


Could you reverse your approach?

Use technical as the primary approach to market analysis and let fundamentals drive the momentum.

That is, look to trade pairs in the direction of the technical bigger picture with strong fundamentals support.

Forex Trading Psychology

Both technicals and fundamentals are necessary to maximise consistent gains in trading in the long run. This is what many professionals do. The following were trades I made recently or are opportunities based on fundamentals and market sentiment.The blog on forex trading strategies will be published at least once a week. Fundamentals revealed through historical and real-time news are key and deserve more attention by traders despite the effort needed. This will pay off with a greater certitude in entering and exiting the markets when forex trading. I used to watch my trades continually with fear and trepidation. Now, I watch them knowing where and why they could move in a certain direction. It takes a while to learn the fundamentals and sentiment of currencies but it's well worth it because it works.

I normally use fundamental analysis combined with few technicals only to determine entries and exits.

I share the same opinion that fundamentals should comprise of at least 80% of your trading strategy along with a little help of technicals. I do not use any lagging indicators and find probable trades purely based on price action and consolidation!

Hope to share my views and look forward to fruitful discussions

Fundamentals isn't about trading news releases its about knowing what is driving the market which will put you in the right direction for the foreseeable term.

For example this week EUR will strengthen against the USD because the EUR came out with positive fundamentals regarding hiking and USD ultimately failed to show bullish talk in the FOMC and dismissed 4 rate hikes this year.

Trading risk events is not the same as trading fundamentals. I do trade and profit heavily from news releases but you need to pay for a professional service to do this profitably.

EURO

Week Aug 20, 2019

USD

Week Aug 20, 2019

JPY

Week Aug 20, 2019

GBP

Week Aug 20, 2019