Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
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1. Post 6,964

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

Submitted by Guy Haslemann, macro strategist and former head of rate strategy at Scotia Capital


Three decades of benefits from globalization and free trade have come to end.


I have absolutely no doubt that today’s monstrous attack on world order is a creation of the Fed’s own making. It was started by the Fed when the FOMC pushed rates to the ‘emergency’ level of 0% in 2008, but then failed to raise them when markets resumed functioning properly and were no longer considered to be in an ‘emergency’ state.

The Fed rightly gets the blame, simply because the US has the world’s reserve currency; therefore, all other central banks had to follow the Fed’s lead in cutting rates, or their country’s currency would have strengthened too much, leaving their exports competitive.

Japan may have been the first major developed economy to move rates to 0%, but this is the wrong comparison for three reasons: 1) the Yen is not the world’s reserve currency; 2) most of its debt is owned by its own people; and 3) Japan’s real problem is a rapidly shrinking population.

Today, currency wars are sprouting up everywhere and are an indication that countries have urgently decided to put themselves first. With global indebtedness at multiples of GDP and far above 2008 levels, alternatives have diminished. Certainly, healthy pockets of ‘creative destruction’ are a political landmine and viewed as something to be avoided at all costs.

Central banks, led by the Fed, are destroying the global financial world order. Today’s $15 trillion of negatively yielding debt is lunacy. An investor taking interest rate risk should be compensated for it with added compensation for credit risk.

Further dangers have developed from income seekers fleeing negative yielding bonds and replacing them with dividend paying stocks, i.e., the other end of the capital structure. Old school portfolio construction like 60/40 portfolios no longer serve their proper function - I will save that topic for my next note.

It is unsustainable and impossible for central banks to try to perpetually prop up markets and maintain negative real yields. Currency wars are a race to the bottom in rates because the goal is to weaken the currency. However, an exchange rate is relative – it’s a ratio. When both countries cut rates, the ratio for the most part remains stable.

Unfortunately, there are many aggregating negative consequence; including, financial repression, indebtedness, ‘everything bubbles’, and moral hazard. Much has already been written on these topics.

I'd like to focus on the Fed’s exit strategy. What is it? Do any central banks have one? If they don’t have an exit strategy, then I believe that they don’t have any strategy at all. Sports team don’t celebrate at half time. Providing the stimulus is always the easy part, but only half the game

I believe at this point, the only way for central banks to not lose total control of markets is for the Fed to refrain from cutting again any time soon. Let the other central banks cut if they must, but the Fed must lead the way out of financial repression and on a path toward rate normalization. Only the country with the world’s reserve currency can do this. And, after all, the Fed is the one who got us into this mess in the first place.

It will be a difficult road, but markets give the Fed too much credit anyway and it really doesn’t have the proper tools to properly fix much of anything (except maybe the level of total indebtedness via the price of money). And, don’t believe their hubris when FOMC members say, “we are the only game in town”. They’d like to believe they are, but they are not.

The Fed is a central bank not a Finance Ministry, so it should stop acting like the latter.

Refraining from cutting again will likely mean a period of hardship brought on by a stronger dollar and weaker equity market. FOMC members should talk less and stop offering the 'market put’ that market participants now readily expect at the first sign of any market or economic weakness.

In short, the FOMC has to stop trying to make everything better today, because imbalances and debt are aggregating and Fed actions are mortgaging the world of tomorrow and damaging the economic world order.

Good morning Forex traders. I have been trading in LIVE time since July 15, 2019. I have recently moved my business location and during this period of time I have been using my cellphone and tablet to trade. I have been set up since July 25, 2019 with my desktop and notebook computer.

As you can see from the SCREENSHOT , I have closed my last 8 trades for a net profit of $2622.10 US Dollars.

When I started trading on July 15, 2019 when I arrived at my new office / home the balance on this FXCM UK Demo account was just over $15,000 US Dollars.

As we can all see from the SCREENSHOT the balance all in cash is $48,026.30 US Dollars.

That is an increase in excess of $33,000 US Dollars in 30 days of Forex trading. As most of you know that come here to read my posts and watch my Forex trades using my unique and 100% proven method of Forex trading developed over the last 17 years of hands on trading tens of millions of US Dollars using REAL FUNDS the results speak for themselves.

I soon will be stopping my posting on this thread other than perhaps a weekly update for those that want to subscribe to my corporate website.

Comments and feedback is always welcome.


Benjamin

Good Morning

July 15, 2019 to August 14, 2019 - 31 days - 88 Forex trades - 86 Forex wins. Balance from $15,000 US Dollars to $50,000 US Dollars.


Benjamin

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

SNIPPET:
Critically, as Jim Grant noted recently, the spread between the 10-year and three-month yields is an important indicator, James Bianco, president and eponym of Bianco Research LLC notes today. On six occasions over the past 50 years when the three-month yield exceeded that of the 10-year, economic recession invariably followed, commencing an average of 311 days after the initial signal.


Finally, Joseph Carson, former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein, notes that recessions are far from being alike and their symptoms and causes differ over time. Despite its many shapes and sizes the historical regularity that an inverted Treasury yield curve has coincided with recession has raised concern now that yields on longer-dated Treasuries have fallen been below shorter-term yields for several months running.


The power of the term spread to predict or anticipate economic recessions needs to be respected, but there are several new domestic and global factors that are present today, suggesting that the signaling effect from changes in the Treasury yield curve directly to the economy's future performance might not be as robust as it was past periods.

First, this is the first economic cycle that involved a bond-buying program by the Federal Reserve. The quantitative bond-buying program produced a technical anchoring effect at the long-end of the bond market that was not present in prior cycles. While this program did not cause a yield curve inversion by itself it did result in a flatter yield curve than what otherwise would have been the case, and as a result, it would not take much force from other factors to trigger an inversion in the term spread of yields.


Second, given the increased globalization of the financial markets the appeal and demand of long-dated US Treasury securities is often based on the yields available in other major economies. Long bond yields in a number of major economies (such Germany, Japan and France) are negative and many others (including the UK, Spain and Australia) are below 1% and that has led to an increase in global demand for long-dated US Treasury securities since yields in the US are in some cases 100 to 200 basis points over the yields of comparable maturities in other economies. That increased global demand for US securities is a new technical factor and unrelated to the performance of the US economy.


Third, this is the first time the inversion of the Treasury curve occurred with nominal yields at the short and long end that were well below the growth in nominal income and GDP (or the economy's yield curve). Why is that important? There is a direct negative consequence to the economy's performance when the cost of borrowing exceeds the growth in nominal income. At that point, the cost of new borrowing starts to become too costly, leading to a slowdown or a decline in credit use, and a weaker economy.


Although it is often overlooked, all of the Treasury yield curve inversions that have preceded recessions have coincided with an inversion in the economy's yield curve, or when short and long-term nominal rates were above the growth in nominal income and GDP. The fact that the Treasury yield curve has inverted at relatively low nominal yields, suggests that the interest rate channel is not producing the restrictive influences on the economy as it did during prior inversions and instead is actually providing a cushion (or stimulus) to the economy.

Policymakers should take note of this unusual occurrence and not rush to ease policy further, saving its interest rate powder for another time.

If the Treasury curve inversion is not producing a restrictive influence on the economy as it did in the past can the US still experience a recession?
, but it would come from different channels.

The biggest recession risk today centers around the trade dispute between the US and China. Trade disputes have the potential to be very disruptive and contractility and can operate through a number of channels, such as trade volumes and production, currencies and prices and asset markets.

Of all of these channels, the biggest vulnerability for the US is the equity channel since the market value of equities relative to income and GDP is at record highs, providing consumers with vast sums of liquidity and wealth. If the imposition of new tariffs and the uncertainty over what may follow triggers a de-risking and rush to exit, sparking a sustained 25% to 30% correction in the equity market that by itself could trigger a recession as it would deal a substantial blow to consumer liquidity and wealth, and an abrupt and sharp decline in spending and confidence.


That is not a forecast or a prediction but merely an observation that all recessions have been caused by some form of a demand shock, and the inverted yield curve merely highlighted the vulnerability of the economy to a potential bad outcome.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...E6Htkh76jz1yw/

Negative yields? Who cares says Greenspan. It's meaningless.


Negative Yields "No Big Deal"
Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan sees No Barriers to Prevent Negative Treasury Yields.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says he wouldn’t be surprised if U.S. bond yields turn negative. And if they do, it’s not that big of a deal.

“There is international arbitrage going on in the bond market that is helping drive long-term Treasury yields lower,” Greenspan, who led the central bank from 1987 to 2006, said in a phone interview. “There is no barrier for U.S. Treasury yields going below zero. Zero has no meaning, beside being a certain level.”

Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co., detailed earlier this month a view that there’s been a change in the fundamental economic theory of time preference that helps explain why people are buying debt with negative yields. He postulated that extended life expectancy and an aging population have caused people to value future consumption more than current spending.

Greenspan, 93, said he views Fels’s thesis as very plausible and also a reason why more debt has a yield below zero. He doesn’t think it will last forever.

Flashback August 4, 2017
Please consider Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble

In a CNBC interview, the longtime central bank chief said the prolonged period of low interest rates is about to end and, with it, a bull market in fixed income that has lasted more than three decades.

“The current level of interest rates is abnormally low and there’s only one direction in which they can go, and when they start they will be rather rapid,” Greenspan said on “Squawk Box.”

Flashback July 31, 2017
Alan Greenspan told Bloomberg TV : "By any measure, real long-term interest rates are much too low and therefore unsustainable. When they move higher they are likely to move reasonably fast. We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.”
Now it's "No Big Deal".

Alan Greenspan on "Irrational Exuberance"
On December 5, 1996 the Maestro warned of "Irrational Exuberance".

Click on the link for an amusing video.

By the year 2000 Alan Greenspan embraced the "productivity miracle" of technology and no longer saw any bubbles.

That's precisely when the technology bust started.

Negative Time Preference
As noted above, Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at Pacific Investment Management Co, suggests "there’s been a change in the fundamental economic theory of time preference that helps explain why people are buying debt with negative yields."

Time preference can never be negative. Never.

To believe in negative time preference is to believe things such as "It's better to have 90 cents ten years from now than a dollar today".

Yields are negative only because central banks manipulated yields negative. They would never be negative on their own accord.

Investors buy negative yielding debt firmly convinced central banks will manipulate yields even more negative.

Zero Does Have Meaning
Alan Greenspan is wrong. Zero is very meaningful with negative being even more meaningful.
It means central banks have hit a brick wall. They cannot cram any more debt into the system. There is no tolerance for paying interest.
That's the meaning, and the evidence is overwhelming.

1. More Currency Wars: Swiss Central Bank Poised to Cut Interest Rate to -1.0%
2. Inverted Negative Yields in Germany and Negative Rate Mortgages.
3. Fed Trapped in a Rate-Cutting Box: It's the Debt Stupid

As Gold Blasts Through $1500 the implied message is that central banks are out of control.
Gold has the meaning of zero correct even if central bank clowns and analysts don't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...t/#more-202570

Guest Post by Kurt Schlichter
https://media.townhall.com/townhall/...536a859e60.png


All you crazy kooks who doubt our accomplished and selfless elite and the institutions our elites manage are crazy kooks, willing participants in crazy kooky conspiracy theories that are both crazy and kooky. Also, Donald Trump was totally a Russian agent who did lines of emoluments off a hooker’s tummy alongside Putin in Moscow.

You look at something like America’s most notorious prisoner, Jeffrey Epstein, suddenly hacking himself in federal custody after having tried to do it a couple weeks ago, and you’re not wrong for wondering if maybe there’s a bit more to the tale than some short eyed strange-o choking himself out. After all, he was known to cavort with other elite pervs – mostly Democrats and at least one married to Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit.

Certainly, it’s a reasonable possibility – probably the most likely possibility – that he opted for asphyxiation since his future was distinctly dank going forward. His new friends in the slam would be a bit old and male for his taste.

No, it’s not insane to think there might be more to it and to want to see what AG Barr’s dual investigations uncover. It’s interesting that Barr is having both the FBI and IG investigate. It’s almost as if he doesn’t trust our institutions either in the wake of Epstein getting Lee Harvey’d.

Basically, the best-case scenario here is that our government is unbelievably incompetent, not a particularly soothing thought. But the alternative is that it is corrupt and criminal in ways we can barely imagine. There’s an even less soothing thought. I can’t wait until these Einsteins take over my health care and are no longer restrained by the citizen veto of the guns we bitter normal people have, so far, wisely clung to.

The fact is you cannot trust our institutions. They are not, and have not been, operating in the interests of Normal Americans for quite some time. They have degenerated into seedy scams run by, and for the benefit of, a garbage ruling caste that inherited the most powerful society in human history and seems determined to do in a couple generations what the Romans took a few hundred years to do – squander it.

Look at our useless Department of Justice. It gave Hillary a pass and basically rubbed it in our faces. If you or I pulled the classified material shenanigans she did, we’d could have been Epstein’s federal pokey pals. But James Comey – who we were duly informed by the smart set was a paragon of integrity – let her walk. Later, that Looming Doofus distributed classified material to his media pals to undermine the president we rubes elected and who he did not approve of, and so far he’s walking too. There are rules for them, and rules for us, and that’s not exactly going to reinforce our faith in our DOJ’s commitment to justice without an agenda, is it?

No.

How about the media? Why, they are brave truth tellers who perform the vital function of informing us, fairly and objectively, of the facts. And my unicorn, Chet, believes that. But none of us hornless headed humans do, not anymore. We’ve watched the liberal media go all in on the narrative and we’ve had it lying to our faces over and over again until it’s all background noise, just Fredo Cuomo yammering on endlessly in our ears as we wait for our delayed flight at the airport lounge. Yet these hacks, despite their commitment to a partisan position far to our left, demand to be treated as if they were neutral truthtellers, with all the respect and admiration due a guild of objective news-monks. Good luck with that, journaljerks. Democracy doesn’t die in darkness; it dies when our institutions shred their mandate to serve us and start serving themselves.

And that’s all they do – serve themselves.

Are you proud of academia? Are you impressed by the quality of the young people the universities are graduating? Do you often say, “Wow, what an excellent writer and clear thinker”? Me neither. I hire young people, and many of the ones I interview are terrible, totally unfit. You find good ones, ones who managed to get through the college assembly line without being ruined, and they are hobbled by a couple hundred grand in debt. That’s the system our elite built – one that rips off the futures of the young to fund its elite members’ lush sinecures in the present in return for meaningless diplomas in Intersectional Dance and Mongolian Transgender Poetry.

And we’re supposed to pretend that our ruling class isn’t terrible, that it’s not capable of not merely gross incompetence but venal self-dealing and possibly worse?

Yeah, right.

https://www.fincabayano.net/1_emigration/introduction/

 

1. Panama offers perfect conditions for surviving the crash and is one of the few choices that emigrants have, nowadays.
2. Finca Bayano has nothing to do with conspiracy theories – it’s a survival insurance for emigrants, and it is one of the few realistic alternatives available in the world to survive the crash.
3. For demographic reasons, the collapse of the system is inevitable.
4. Negative interest rates, the Bitcoin bubble and the possible ban on cash indicate that the debt money FIAT system is on the horizon of a crash of catastrophic proportions.
5. Special levies such as “Burden Sharing 2.0” and “Cyprus 2.0” will impoverish the great majority of the population.
6. From a logical and mathematical point-of-view, the majority of the population will not survive the crash.
7. The so-called “refugee crisis” in Europe has no direct relation to the very real problem of the systemic crisis, however, as refugees’ immigration and birth rates far overshadow that of ethnic Europeans, their presence, along with the criminal behavior, of a considerable portion of them, is finally beginning to move to the center of attention.
8. In 2019, the indigenous Europeans’ general mood regarding unrestricted immigration could flip.
9. Even if so-called “populist parties” come to power, at this point in time, the collapse of the system can no longer be stopped.

https://fincabayano.net/wp-content/u...ng-300x222.png

What our houses should look like from the outside.

In 2008, due to my belief that the financial collapse of the Western World will be of devastating proportions, I began looking for alternative places to live. Germany, my birth nation, along with the rest of Europe, which is for the most part densely populated, was unacceptable to me as a Bug-Out Location. After visiting a number of countries, I decided to go to Panama where I had been involved in a reforestation project since 2006.

There are several other primary reasons as to why I chose Panama to be the site of my project. After much research and first-hand experience, I had come to the conclusion that Panama offers perfect conditions for surviving the crash and is one of the few choices that emigrants have, nowadays. As Southeast Asia faces the issues of both heavy overpopulation and the growing threat of terrorism, it is out of the question as a realistic Bug-Out Location. On the other hand, while locations such as Alaska as well as Canada are spared from the problem of high-population-density, the issue of having sufficient amounts of food to last the freezing Winters for an indefinite number of years, among other uncertainties, likewise leave them out of the question.

https://fincabayano.net/wp-content/u...-1-296x300.jpg

A certain percentage of the coins are as Balboas in circulation, banknotes are are only US-dollars.

In Panama, beautiful beaches lie facing both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The people here are friendly, and the climate in the higher elevations is fantastic. Moreover, the political situation is stable, the country provides the best conditions for year-round food production, is sparsely populated, and meets the most important conditions for emigrants: Residence and work permits are easily obtained and foreigners can buy land without restrictions. The fact that the US dollar is Panama’s currency has had a decisive influence on my decision to emigrate to that country. Since the strings of this world are being pulled in Washington, I assume that the dollar will survive all other currencies in the event of a crisis. Apart from that, Panama remains one of the few tax heavens where your money still is safe.
In June 2010, I founded Finca Bayano to start organic farming with like-minded people. While most observers still described me as a conspiracy theorist at that time, the interest in Finca Bayano is greater than ever, nowadays:“

https://fincabayano.net/wp-content/u...-2-300x225.jpg

The sky above Finca Bayano – No chem-trails!

Finca Bayano is located approximately 300 kilometers West of Panama City (8°05’56.59”N and 81°28’29.38”W), at an altitude of 500 meters above sea level, where near-perfect climatic conditions prevail. Although there is much precipitation, the hilly location on which Finca Bayano is situated makes flooding impossible. High-quality spring water in sufficient quantities is available throughout the year, the soil is fertile, and the region is sparsely populated. Furthermore, tropical diseases are a non-issue in the region. Neither industrial complexes nor power plants are located close to Finca Bayano, and there are no active volcanoes nearby. There has not been any significant damage from earthquakes within the last 500 years, and due to its close proximity to the equator, there are no tropical storms. Roughly one hundred and fifty residents will live on an area of 34 hectares, which is 80 acres. There is no place for politically extreme opinions, we are not a sect and religion does not matter.

https://fincabayano.net/wp-content/u...ng-300x222.jpg

one of many small islands

Of course, Panama is not paradise and there are no guarantees as to what the conditions will be like during or after a crash, however, this country is most probably the best place to be when worse comes to worst. My views first began to take form through the influence of certain authors who had already predicted what the future would be like by the turn of the millennium. At the time, the essence of their statements was that although the collapse can be delayed, it cannot be prevented, since a demographic breakdown is inevitable. Western societies already have some of the highest ratios of elderly to youth in the world, and this ratio is only increasing.

Even though it is not possible to predict the time of the collapse, my favorite authors made a pretty good diagnosis more than 15 years ago: As soon as a ban on cash and negative interest rates would be discussed in public, they warned, the collapse would be lurking around the corner. As soon as future government debt may only be raised with negative interest rates, a ban on cash must be imposed. Only with this measure can bank runs be prevented and we be forced to leave our money in our accounts, even though it is becoming increasingly less. In addition, compulsory levies such as “Burdensharing 2.0” and “Cyprusnizing” of bank accounts may be expected.

Though refugees have little direct relation with the actual problem of the systemic crisis, their presence is now beginning to make its way to the forefront in Europe, as the frequency and degree of the violent crimes they commit is disproportionally high. For that reason, it is possible that the mood of the population, in regard to unrestricted immigration, may flip as early as 2019.

https://fincabayano.net/wp-content/u...-1-300x225.jpg

our garden

The question thus arises as to what will happen in Europe after the mood has flipped and millions of refugees, who refuse to assimilate into their societies of residence, are being told that they are no longer “welcome”. As we all know, voting would be prohibited if it made any difference, however, in modern Europe of 2019, it may be assumed that the intention is to bring populist movements to power. This will ultimately lead to confrontation and civil wars, as radicals, once they see themselves faced with hostility, will begin to resort to real terrorism, attacking so-called soft targets, such as kindergartens and schools. Only this time, they won’t be leaving their passports behind. It will probably be another year before this happens. Meanwhile, the stance of Europeans continues to degenerate on a daily basis, as they are only shrinking as the number of immigrants keeps on growing. This development, which began decades ago, only to be accelerated in 2015, can no longer be reversed – not even the so-called populist parties!

Please read the following before contacting me:

1. We are Building the First House at Finca Bayano
2. How to Get a Residence Permit in Panama
3. What does it cost to move to Finca Bayano?
4. Sales Agreement to Buy Land at Finca Bayano
5. The Latest Video

Some of the articles on this website are a bit lengthy, though after I realized that the good days are behind us and that hard times lay ahead, I had to start doing something. I hope you’ll find the answer to some of your questions on this website.

Failing To Prepare Is Preparing To Fail!