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  • #16,961
  • Aug 6, 2019 12:05am Aug 6, 2019 12:05am
Something tells me this time will be different - I don't think there will be much of a gap up, maybe not any, and this move will test s&p 2,750 and probably even break thru to <2,635 in the next 10-12 trading days.

OK I pulled that right outta my ass but that is what's gonna happen
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,962
  • Aug 6, 2019 8:46am Aug 6, 2019 8:46am
Quoting moneymaker2
I saw something interesting today....about 1:15-1:20 CST, I checked the computer and all the Bid/Ask spreads on the ones I was monitoring had went from $0.20-$0.40 to $1.60-$2.20.....Ask price remained the same, Bid price fell out the bottom. After abought 10 minutes of watching it (don't know when it actually started, just when it was when I go on the computer), the Bid prices, in a very controlled and methodical manner, began climbing slowly closing the gap on the spread. No big step change moves, but nickel and dime increments until after about...
Well, I am seeing this huge spread again...Bid price is low balled only this time Ask price is much higher than the close yesterday. If bid moves up towards Ask to close the gap, I can't help but think that the Market Makers already know what the market is going to do, and the extent of the move....
  • #16,963
  • Aug 6, 2019 1:40pm Aug 6, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting The Fool
don't think there will be much of a gap up....
...tough to beat the old btfd
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,964
  • Aug 6, 2019 2:48pm Aug 6, 2019 2:48pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote}…. the entire daily candle for the DIA today was outside of the lower Bollinger Band, and it is very rare that a day like that is NOT followed by a reversal day, usually with a gap at the open...... plus my other indicators indicate a severely oversold condition....
Yep, very rare indeed......
  • #16,965
  • Aug 6, 2019 3:19pm Aug 6, 2019 3:19pm
Well, added to the following right at the close:

DLTR Aug16 97.5 CALL @ $0.40, which brings the average down to $0.744

This gives me more contracts than I normally carry on one strike, but it was just too low to pass up to lower my breakeven. I should make good money on this, as next stop up should be ~$96 (5EMA)….
  • #16,966
  • Aug 7, 2019 11:16pm Aug 7, 2019 11:16pm
I have Aug9/12 SPY $290 calendar calls ... in for a dime looking for 60c out or better...maybe get lucky and can hold the long calls into Monday in a rising tide
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,967
  • Aug 8, 2019 8:40am Aug 8, 2019 8:40am
Out of the following:

DIA Aug16 260 CALL @ $3.85 up from $3.21
  • #16,968
  • Aug 8, 2019 1:46pm Aug 8, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting The Fool
I have Aug9/12 SPY $290 calendar calls ... in for a dime looking for 60c out or better...maybe get lucky and can hold the long calls into Monday in a rising tide
...a little profit taking Friday maybe dip SPY closer to $290, I watch/wait
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,969
  • Aug 9, 2019 10:07am Aug 9, 2019 10:07am
Quoting The Fool
I have Aug9/12 SPY $290 calendar calls ... in for a dime looking for 60c out or better..
....out for 55c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,970
  • Aug 9, 2019 1:47pm Aug 9, 2019 1:47pm
...August I would usually guess markets putt along sideways til Jackson Hole....then we have the next FOMC 9/18.....then perhaps the no-deal Brexit Halloween ... plenty room in that stretch for tweets 'n twicks.

with the spoos around 2,900, which do you think it'll touch first - 2,750 or 3,050...?

With some of my winnings from the above spreads closed this week, I bot a Sep27 SPY put vert, $275/274, for 15c....stand by for exciting updates
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,971
  • Aug 12, 2019 4:43pm Aug 12, 2019 4:43pm
Quoting The Fool
...I bot a Sep27 SPY put vert, $275/274, for 15c....stand by for exciting updates
...gimme some downtrending and I can sell a put vert out mid-Sept with this bull vert as protection, credit spread maybe somewhere under $270....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,972
  • Aug 13, 2019 9:19am Aug 13, 2019 9:19am
Quoting moneymaker2
Well, added to the following right at the close: DLTR Aug16 97.5 CALL @ $0.40, which brings the average down to $0.744 This gives me more contracts than I normally carry on one strike, but it was just too low to pass up to lower my breakeven. I should make good money on this, as next stop up should be ~$96 (5EMA)….
Out of the following:

DLTR Aug16 97.5 CALL @ $1.50 up from $0.734

DLTR Aug16 95 CALL @ $2.85 up from $1.65

Big money day today. This will certainly make up for any loss I will probably have to take on VAR Aug16 115 CALL....
  • #16,973
  • Aug 13, 2019 12:44pm Aug 13, 2019 12:44pm
Quoting The Fool
...gimme some downtrending and I can sell a put vert out mid-Sept with this bull vert as protection, credit spread maybe somewhere under $270....
another day, another news flash....if there can be a rumor of hope re: a China trade deal, stocks will grind back to s&p 3,000....until the next tweet or newsflash....the way to trade a market like this is to have safe positions set up for moves either way.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,974
  • Aug 13, 2019 2:21pm Aug 13, 2019 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}another day, another news flash....if there can be a rumor of hope re: a China trade deal, stocks will grind back to s&p 3,000....until the next tweet or newsflash....the way to trade a market like this is to have safe positions set up for moves either way.
...so if they say they will talk within two weeks, it means stocks will grind up for two weeks....possibly back up to ath territory by month's end

...bot Aug30/Sep3 SPX 3025 calendar calls for 65c...looking for min 5x net
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,975
  • Aug 13, 2019 9:19pm Aug 13, 2019 9:19pm
Looking at my charts, nothing much for tomorrow. one that looks interesting is AMGN Aug23 205 PUT @ $3.20 or better....pretty expensive, but should be good for some decent money. Jumped up due to winning a patent case on Enbrel, so that should be relatively short lived, but it succeeded in producing an extremely overbought condition, so it's gonna be worth a look in the morning.
  • #16,976
  • Edited Aug 14, 2019 9:09am Aug 13, 2019 10:46pm | Edited Aug 14, 2019 9:09am
I noticed something interesting on the DJIA charts:

Looking at simple indicators, on the weekly chart, price has been attempting to close above the mid-Bollinger Band for the second week now (roughly 26375, about +100 points from where it is now). If it is unable to break that resistance level by the end of the week and close above it, the DJIA will most likely head south a little. Now, assuming it DOES close above that by Friday, the next resistance level is a little stronger, as the 5EMA/10EMA on the weekly are right there together (roughly 26525) and the mid-BB on the daily chart is the same (roughly 26520). Those levels are going to be harder to penetrate.

I normally only like to predict short term, extreme overbought/oversold conditions on a single stock, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and make a longer range prediction on an index: I doubt price can close above 26375 on the current weekly candle, and as a result will drop a little. I think in the next couple of weeks that price might hit but will not close above 26525, resulting in another drop. Neither drop will be really big, but will head to the next support around the 25775 level (10EMA on monthly chart), or roughly 500 points down from today's close.

Now we wait for two weeks to see if I need to just stick with short term stuff.....
  • #16,977
  • Aug 14, 2019 12:05am Aug 14, 2019 12:05am
Quoting moneymaker2
but I'm gonna go out on a limb here.....
...hey man, I haven't put any of those moving average or Bolly band type indicators on a chart in >5 years. To each his own, though. What I think I know: in the absence of any real macro contraindication (recession, etc) or global influence (war, zombie apocalypse, etc) stocks will grind up. The China trade war stuff has been enough to slow the ascent and we could see real hits on GDP if that continues, and that could make the bulls afraid, BUT....what else are you going to do if you're a yield-seeking pig? If, against all hints and winks otherwise, the Fed turns hawkish, that would do it, too. The markets are trading on news & tweets. We have kind of a binary setup for the 2nd half of the year: if China/USA trade war keeps souring the headlines, equities will likely slide; if there's a real fix for that mess, we will break up to s&p 3,100 maybe 3,200 by the end of the year. There will be pops and drops along the way, in either case. If China/US trade continues to smell bad, the FOMC will certainly drop the ffr and provide more proof that they are WS's bitch.

idk, if you have learned to set up bi-directional trades, this is not a bad market, hell if we can get lots more >2% 1-day moves, I won't complain, regardless of which way they go....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,978
  • Aug 14, 2019 2:08am Aug 14, 2019 2:08am
5-10c range capture flys
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2019-08-13_2319spy1.png Size: 301 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,979
  • Aug 14, 2019 8:58am Aug 14, 2019 8:58am
In the following:

AMGN Aug23 205 PUT @ $3.10

Thought I would miss it this morning due to the drop at the open, but it came back into positive territory long enough for me to snag some....

Should make good money with this...I'll get out around $200 stock price....that's around the 5EMA...
  • #16,980
  • Aug 14, 2019 9:25am Aug 14, 2019 9:25am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: AMGN Aug23 205 PUT @ $3.10 Thought I would miss it this morning due to the drop at the open, but it came back into positive territory long enough for me to snag some.... Should make good money with this...I'll get out around $200 stock price....that's around the 5EMA...
Have to run some errands before 10:00, so I'm out of the following:

AMGN Aug23 205 PUT @ $5.10 up from $3.10

Has a little move left to get down around $200, but I don't like to trade away from the computer. Still, not a bad trade for <1hr......
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