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  • #181
  • Aug 12, 2019 4:52am Aug 12, 2019 4:52am
this is going to be interesting - EURUSD down?
It looks like it
But both Stoch128+Stoch32 are in "wait for buy"-mode. Will EURUSD eventually break above HMA?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 68 KB
  • #182
  • Aug 12, 2019 5:24am Aug 12, 2019 5:24am
Quoting josi
{quote} Excellent work, man! You offered more than enough relevant hints - and leading questions - to help anyone who's interested in this pair today make up her/his mind. This sort of analysis will keep this - less than frequented - thread alive (if you continue to find the time). The correction might not be finished yet (H1/M15), after that we could be good to go...
Has that happened so far? Has your conclusion, based on technical analysis, matched with what is actually unfolding?
Were you prepared with some plan for what to do when the possibilities presented on a chart did not favor either up or down direction?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #183
  • Edited 12:48pm Aug 12, 2019 5:39am | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting josi
so, is this your opening window for a selling spree, then? {image}
I will assume you are asking in regards to an EA. Then no, it is not opening a sell window for a selling spree. A sell window would have been opened back when stoch32 crossed below 50. However, there would be another sell made because stoc8 lines crossing down. Gut as you can see clearly, that is probably too simplistic; the HMA color and/or bar close in relation to HMA would probably give a better signal.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #184
  • Aug 12, 2019 5:44am Aug 12, 2019 5:44am
Quoting josi
at least with this one - the trailing stop has already moved to BE, so, even if I'm wrong, I tried... eventually stopped out above BE {image}
Yes, we need eventually to add some exit strategy that will preserve the majority of unrealized pips.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #185
  • Edited 5:58am Aug 12, 2019 5:46am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting josi
{quote} as it's an EA and could be running forever and forever and forever one solution could be to use your new adjustment [so you have e. g. H1, H4, H16 covered; but probably you were thinking M15, H1, H4] and say: if Stoch128&&Stoch32>50 buy stoch8-main cross stoch8-signal if Stoch128&&Stoch32<50 sell stoch8-main cross stoch8-signal you'd still need a solid SL as there are crosses during retracements that normally tend to get you stopped out but you'd always be with trend there are many good trades that won't be taken but if the ones taken have...
LOL. The "new adjustment" that you refer to I will assume is stoch128. I added that just to check to see if it adds anything sufficiently useful to keep it. I have not decided yet, but the initial data are pointing to "remove it".

And yes, I was thinking H1, H4, H16 and not the other direction. It is problematic with stochs to be looking at H1 chart with stoch8 indicating the H1 information and trying to use a stoch2 to get the analogous m15 information.

And, yes, some kind of SL is definitely needed. In addition, I suspect that limiting add-on trades to a requirement of price advancing some amount (to be determined) beyond the prior entry will prevent those groups of usually losing trades that get put on when either a leg is ending or there is a narrow sideways range develop.

I don't mind being stopped out during a strong retrace and then re-entering on the continuation. You are flat there, whether the retrace turns into a reversal or it is indeed just a retracement, you are covered.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #186
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:25am Aug 12, 2019 6:25am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Has that happened so far? Has your conclusion, based on technical analysis, matched with what is actually unfolding? Were you prepared with some plan for what to do when the possibilities presented on a chart did not favor either up or down direction?
To tell the truth - I expected the consolidation to last only a little bit longer and price to turn around at resistance 1.0477.
But this hasn't happened.
I didnn't lose any money on AUDNZD (was stopped out on EURAUD, though) but I didn't make any either - as I didn't sell at market open in the belief that the downturn would be short-lived.
So, to sum up - I missed out because I didn't anticipate that down was the dominant direction.
  • #187
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:27am Aug 12, 2019 6:27am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} I will assume you are asking in regards to an EA. .
No, I was referring to your discussion this morning - on the topic of GBP...
strength or weakness
  • #188
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:34am Aug 12, 2019 6:34am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} LOL. The "new adjustment" that you refer to I will assume is stoch128. I added that just to check to see if it adds anything sufficiently useful to keep it. I have not decided yet, but the initial data are pointing to "remove it". And yes, I was thinking H1, H4, H16 and not the other direction. It is problematic with stochs to be looking at H1 chart with stoch8 indicating the H1 information and trying to use a stoch2 to get the analogous m15 information. And, yes, some kind of SL is definitely needed. In addition, I suspect that limiting...
I tried it, at once, of course - but find it a bit difficult to read (clutter)

SL: I still think that the combination of fixed SL (to calculate risk for trade; invest percentage of account) and trailing SL (x ATR) should do the trick. If your SL is wide enough away to survive a retracement (risk of trade), the trailing SL could replace (or supplement) TP by making sure a winning trade doesn't turn into a losing one while - ideally - perpetually participating in the trend movement.
  • #189
  • Edited 7:44am Aug 12, 2019 7:32am | Edited 7:44am
remember this morning's discussion on GBP...

I thought upward potential but didn't do anything about it:
now - that makes one cry
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDH4.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM5.png Size: 69 KB
  • #190
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:03am Aug 12, 2019 8:03am
Quoting josi
remember this morning's discussion on GBP... I thought upward potential but didn't do anything about it: now - that makes one cry {image} {image}
What about the evidence that higher timeframe down moves were continuing a long time? Anyway, for the breakout type of trades like this, why not set a pending order in the opposite direction in place of a stop loss?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #191
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:17am Aug 12, 2019 8:17am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} What about the evidence that higher timeframe down moves were continuing a long time? Anyway, for the breakout type of trades like this, why not set a pending order in the opposite direction in place of a stop loss?
Well, continuing a long time but not necessarily clearly about to end (at least as far as I could tell).
Yes, a pending buy-stop-order above the last support (future resistance) might have done the trick and might not have been triggered if the price moved the other way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM15.png Size: 47 KB
  • #192
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:33am Aug 12, 2019 8:33am
Quoting josi
{quote} Well, continuing a long time but not necessarily clearly about to end (at least as far as I could tell).
LOl. continuing a long time IS a clear signal that it is highly likely to end. Pick a chart of that pair, say H4. Mark off the legs in a trend direction. Switch to H1. Look between your H4 leg marks. How many retracements were there?

Repeat this for at least 20 legs. Make a distribution of the number of retracements. Count the H1 retracements to the H4 leg that you were looking at today. How does that number compare to the numbers in your distribution? I didn't do this exercise, but I am confident that the count falls outside the values in your distribution study, or else is nearer to the upper extreme than to the middle. So when the count is far above the "usual" number, the probability of a reversal is high. Each additional retracement adds to the probability that it is the last one.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #193
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:40am Aug 12, 2019 8:40am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} LOl. continuing a long time IS a clear signal that it is highly likely to end. Pick a chart of that pair, say H4. Mark off the legs in a trend direction. Switch to H1. Look between your H4 leg marks. How many retracements were there? Repeat this for at least 20 legs. Make a distribution of the number of retracements. Count the H1 retracements to the H4 leg that you were looking at today. How does that number compare to the numbers in your distribution? I didn't do this exercise, but I am confident that the count falls outside the values...
In this case you're right (for me: everything is clear after it has happened)
There was a trendline break
There was a test of the lower low
There was no new lower low
Actually there was a higher low
But it might still have been a complex retracement because we saw lower highs at the same time
And we didn't see a clear price rejection
Instead price stayed close to resistance and tried several times to move on...
So - for me - alas - it wasn't that clear... but - as always - is obvious now
  • #194
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:42am Aug 12, 2019 8:42am
Quoting josi
remember this morning's discussion on GBP... I thought upward potential but didn't do anything about it: now - that makes one cry {image} {image}
OK, so thinking about upward potential is fine, but after considering it, did you look for setups? If you use the HMA/EMA5 channel, H4 had no closes above the channel. h1 had either the 2nd or 3rd, depending on your brokertime and feed, close above the channel. If you want to wait for the crossover, then that looks like 5 or 6 candles after that.

It looks to me like you had buy entry if you would have just been checking the charts.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #195
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:44am Aug 12, 2019 8:44am
Quoting josi
{quote} In this case you're right (for me: everything is clear after it has happened) There was a trendline break There was a test of the lower low There was no new lower low Actually there was a higher low But it might still have been a complex retracement because we saw lower highs at the same time And we didn't see a clear price rejection Instead price stayed close to resistance and tried several times to move on... So - for me - alas - it wasn't that clear... but - as always - is obvious now
Tha is an important point. Failure to achieve a lower low is a good warning that the down move is very weak. BUt failure to then produce a higher high shows you that the buyers have not yet committed.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #196
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:47am Aug 12, 2019 8:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} It looks to me like you had buy entry if you would have just been checking the charts.
You are right! What can I say - except that I got caught up in the EURUSD-H4-short-or-no-short-distraction. My fault entirely.
  • #197
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:56am Aug 12, 2019 8:56am
Quoting josi
{quote} You are right! What can I say - except that I got caught up in the EURUSD-H4-short-or-no-short-distraction. My fault entirely.
LOL. Yes, distractions do happen and you miss some trades. But no harm done. More will come along.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #198
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:56am Aug 12, 2019 8:56am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} OK, so thinking about upward potential is fine, but after considering it, did you look for setups? If you use the HMA/EMA5 channel, H4 had no closes above the channel. h1 had either the 2nd or 3rd, depending on your brokertime and feed, close above the channel. If you want to wait for the crossover, then that looks like 5 or 6 candles after that. It looks to me like you had buy entry if you would have just been checking the charts.
By the way, on the TradingMadeSimple(r) thread they were discussing this EURUSD-H4-sell-signal this morning.
I commented on it in post 181 in this thread because "your" indcators said: don't short and I was curious who'd come out correct (SwingMan's indicators also didn't say: short).
Well, as it happens in this case your Stoch-approach was on the right side of price development.
  • #199
  • Edited 12:38pm Aug 12, 2019 9:18am | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting josi
{quote} By the way, on the TradingMadeSimple(r) thread they were discussing this EURUSD-H4-sell-signal this morning. I commented on it in post 181 in this thread because "your" indcators said: don't short and I was curious who'd come out correct (SwingMan's indicators also didn't say: short). Well, as it happens in this case your Stoch-approach was on the right side of price development.
You can see in the chart that the stoch32 was flat for a long time. That translates to no volatility but still in buy sentiment on H4.

Then look at stoch8 when it came down. You see a clear 1-2-3 down, then another up leg. That 1-2-3 down is SUFFICIENT to say the down move is over, so look for a confirmation before buying. In your screen capture, the vertical on the right has stoch8 main x signal down. If that happens to turn into another strong down move, then it could pull down the stoch32 into sell mode. But if it is a last run of sellers, then there won't be much down movement of stoch48, and buy mode won't get cancelled.

So if you decided to go with a sell on the H1 crossover sell signal (I think no one here looks at H1), then it must be monitored on m15 so you can exit at the earliest sign of it ending. And from what I see, it probably would have come out to a small loss.

I was looking at m15 and after it went up and started a pullback, I was waiting for the pullback to end and buy the continuation. I see that when I entered it was SELLING instead of BUYING! But I did not notice until later that I went the wrong way. LOL So I decided to ride it for a while and see how far it will pullback when it is H1's turn to pullback.

Looking like m15 is turning down, so if it stops the up move here, then price could get back to my entry level on the H1 pullback.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #200
  • Aug 13, 2019 1:04am Aug 13, 2019 1:04am
Sometimes when trading on low timeframe charts, it is possible for screw-ups to result in winners.
I had "One Click Trading" on and somehow managed to click SELL instead of BUY without realizing it. When I went back to put in a TP, I noticed the problem. OOPS!

No problem. The H1 would be making a pullback--eventually--and as long as it did not get TOO far up before then, price had high probability of returning to my entry area.

Intrinsic Market Timing...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 35 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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