EUR/USD
Eurozone CPI data ticked higher.
Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.
Growing expectations for more aggressive market-friendly action from the Federal Reserve following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to "uncertainty" over the outlook for the U.S. economy.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098
EUR
Recent Facts:
5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected
29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected
1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected
18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected
3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected
5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected
21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected
USD
Recent Facts:
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of "accommodative".
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected
5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected
10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat
1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank's current path of monetary policy was appropriate
3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected
10th of May, CPI
As Expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall
5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)
25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected
27th of June, GDP data
As Expected
5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up
11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected
16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected
GBP/USD
Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.
UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.
Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.
Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359
GBP
Recent Facts:
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected
10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected
16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)
5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected
15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)
10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected
20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected
16th of January, CPI
As Expected
18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected
19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted
20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected
21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected
29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected
22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected
2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)
3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected
16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
USD
See above.
AUD/USD
Australia Job Market data worse than expected.
Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.
Official data showed China's economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.
U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.
President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world's largest economies.
0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801
AUD
Recent Facts:
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected
16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected
13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected
18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected
3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)
13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected
16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected
4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%
5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected
13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-new...is-2019-07-22/
Eurozone CPI data ticked higher.
Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.
Growing expectations for more aggressive market-friendly action from the Federal Reserve following dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a readiness to cut interest rates in response to "uncertainty" over the outlook for the U.S. economy.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, EUR is in heavily Overbought phase. Bears first target: 1.11, then eyes on 1.10 important Demand Area.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1370
2nd Resistance: 1.1490
1st Support: 1.1100
2nd Support: 1.098
EUR
Recent Facts:
5th of December, Eurozone Services PMI
Better than Expected
14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
17th of December, Eurozone CPI
Lower than Expected
4th of January, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Better than Expected, CPI ticked Lower than Expected
24th of January, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
21st of February, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
22nd of February, Eurozone CPI
As Expected
22nd of March, German Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
28th of March, Spanish and German CPI data
Lower than expected
29th of March, German Job Market, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary)
Worse than expected
1st of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
1st of April, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than expected
18th of April, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
30th of April, German Unemployment Change
Better than expected
3rd of May, Eurozone CPI (Inflation) data
Higher than expected
23rd of May, German Manufacturing PMI
Worse than expected
4th of June, CPI, Preliminary release
Lower than expected
5th of June, Services PMI
Better than expected
21st of June, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
17th of July, CPI
Higher than expected
USD
Recent Facts:
26th of September, Interest Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point (increased the overnight funds rate to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%) and removed its use of "accommodative".
27th of September, Core PCE Prices + U.S. GDP Price Index
Higher than Expected
3rd of October, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
5th of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Change.
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected, Unemployment Change Better than Expected
11th of October, CPI
Lower than expected
15th of October, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
2nd of November, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than expected
28th of November, GDP
Worse than expected
7th of December, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Payrolls Worse than expected
14th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
19th of December, Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points but signalled Slower Pace of Hikes in 2019
21st of December, GDP
Worse than expected
1st of February, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
14th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than expected
28th of March, U.S. GDP data
Lower than expected
5th of April, Nonfarm Payrolls, Employment Change
Better than Expected
10th of April, Core CPI (Inflation)
Lower than expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
26th of April, U.S. GDP data
U.S. GDP data up but U.S. Inflation still on the downbeat
1st of May: Fed FOMC Statement
U.S. Fed Chair Powell said the central bank's current path of monetary policy was appropriate
3rd of May, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected
3rd of May, ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Worse than Expected
10th of May, CPI
As Expected
15th of May, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
30th of May, GDP
GDP data as expected but GDP Price Index continues its freefall
5th of June, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Better than expected
7th of June, Nonfarm Payrolls
Worse than Expected
12th of June, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of June, FOMC Statement
Dovish (Interest Rate cut imminent)
25th of June, CB Consumer Confidence
Lower than Expected
27th of June, GDP data
As Expected
5th of July, Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls Better than expected but Unemployment Rate ticked up
11th of July, Core CPI
Higher than expected
16th of July, U.S. Retail Sales data
Better than expected
GBP/USD
Recently, UK Retail Sales data showed enthusiastic upbeats.
UK Job Market data way worse than expected, and this piles up with UK Manufacturing Production data that kept slowing down and UK Services PMI data, recently lower than expected. UK Construction PMI at the lowest since 2009. UK Manufacturing PMI Plummets to 76-Month Low.
Former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson got a boost in his campaign to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to deliver Brexit with or without a deal.
Last UK Retail Sales data kept the good pace. Both last UK Industrial Production and Trade Balance better than expected.
As we wrote in the previous commentaries, we are Bearish rom Neutral. Attempts to recover 1.28 Area systematically failed. First target: 1.2590, already hit, after that we will see a breakout down to 1.2400. Then we expect a consolidation around that level.
Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:
Weekly Trend: Bearish
1st Resistance: 1.2753
2nd Resistance: 1.2880
1st Support: 1.2405
2nd Support: 1.2359
GBP
Recent Facts:
25th of May, GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected
1st of June, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
11th of June, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
12th of June, Job Market
Better than Expected
14th of June, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
29th of June, GDP
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
10th of July, UK Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
18th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, Construction PMI
Better than Expected
14th of August, Job Market
Worse than Expected
10th of September, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of September, Job Market
Better than Expected
19th of September, CPI
Higher than Expected
20th of September, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
3rd of October, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of October, UK Manufacturing PMI + GDP
Worse than Expected
16th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
17th of October, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Manufacturing PMI + Inflation Report
Manufacturing PMI Worse than Expected (2-years low)
5th of November, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
9th of November: Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
13th of November: Job Market
Worse than Expected
14th of November, CPI
Lower than Expected
15th of November, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
5th of December, Services PMI
Worse than Expected (worst data since 2016)
10th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
10th of December, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
11th of December, Job Market
Worse than Expected
20th of December, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
2nd of January, Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected
3rd of January, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
4th of January, Services PMI
Better than Expected
16th of January, CPI
As Expected
18th of January, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
22nd of January, UK Job Market
Better than Expected
5th of February: Services PMI
Worse than Expected
11th of February: GDP, Manufacturing Production
Worse than Expected
13th of February, CPI
Lower than Expected
19th of February, Job Market
Worse than Expected
19th of March, Job Market
Contrasted
20th of March, CPI
Higher than Expected
21st of March, Retail Sales data
Better than Expected
29th of March, GDP
Better than Expected
2nd of April, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
3rd of April, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of April, GDP and Manufacturing Production
Better than Expected
17th of April, CPI
Lower than Expected
18th of April, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
1st of May, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of May, Industrial Production and Trade Balance
Better than Expected
22nd of May, CPI
Lower than Expected
24th of May, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
4th of June, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of June, GDP data
Worse than Expected
2nd of July, Construction PMI
Worse than Expected (Lowest since 2009)
3rd of July, Services PMI
Worse than Expected
10th of July, Manufacturing Production data
Worse than Expected
16th of July, UK Job Market data
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
USD
See above.
AUD/USD
Australia Job Market data worse than expected.
Last U.S. Retail Sales data confirmed a good uptrend.
Official data showed China's economic growth cooled to 6.2% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in at least 27 years, amid trade pressure from the United States. In the first half, the economy grew 6.3 percent compared with a year earlier.
U.S. Core CPI data ticking up. Also last Australia Trade Balance ticked better than expected, and also Building Approvals on the uptick. But Australia Retail Sales confirming the downtrend.
President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion (and more) worth of Chinese goods. The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world's largest economies.
0.6875 first Support. In the case it will be clearly violated to the downside, there is room even below 0.68, important Demand Area.
Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:
Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 0.7044
2nd Resistance: 0.7120
1st Support: 0.6875
2nd Support: 0.6801
AUD
Recent Facts:
6th of June, Australia GDP
Better than Expected
14th of June, Australia Job Market
Worse than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Slightly better than Expected
19th of July, Employment Change
Better than Expected
25th of July, CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of August, AIG Manufacturing Index
Worse than Expected
2nd of August, Retail Sales,
Better than Expected
16th of August, Employment Change
Worse than Expected
30th of August, HIA New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
12th of September, Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Worse than Expected
13th of September, Employment Change
Better than Expected
5th of October, Retail Sales
As Expected
18th of October, Job Market
Worse than Expected
30th of October, Building Approvals
Worse than Expected
31st of October, Australia CPI
Lower than Expected
1st of November, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
15th of November, Australia Employment Change
Better than Expected
29th of November, Australia New Home Sales + Private New Capital Expenditure
Worse than Expected
5th of December, GDP
Worse than Expected
11th of January, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
24th of January, Employment Change
Better than Expected
30th of January, CPI
Better than Expected
5th of February, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
21st of February, Job Market
Better than Expected
21st of March, Job Market
Worse than Expected
3rd of March, Retail Sales
Better than Expected
18th of April, Job Market
Better than Expected
24th of April, CPI
Lower than expected
7th of May, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected (weakest quarter in seven years)
13th of May, Home Loans
Worse than Expected
16th of May, Unemployment Rate
Higher than expected
4th of June, Retail Sales and RBA Interest Rate Statement
Retail Sales Worse than Expected, RBA cuts interest Rates as expected at 1.25%
5th of June, GDP
Worse than Expected
13th of June, Employment Change
Better than Expected
3rd of July, Australia Trade Balance and Building Approvals
Better than Expected
4th of July, Australia Retail Sales
Worse than Expected
18th of July, Job Market data
Worse than Expected
USD
Recent Facts:
See above.
https://sgtmarkets.com/en/market-new...is-2019-07-22/