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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #7,561
  • Aug 7, 2019 6:12pm Aug 7, 2019 6:12pm
Good morning traders!

Wanted to get short on the AUDUSD on the H4, but the failed rally and further move downwards resulted in a new supply zone created on the H2 time frame.

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Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,562
  • Aug 7, 2019 6:23pm Aug 7, 2019 6:23pm
Hi traders,

Crude/ Brent Shorts anyone?

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Tyler
  • #7,563
  • Aug 7, 2019 6:35pm Aug 7, 2019 6:35pm
Quoting Rox99
Hi everyone My trade idea (sell bias) on EurNzd. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Rox99,

Thanks for your chart! Allow me to make some comments based on my current understanding of the methodology.

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From the charts, it seems to me that the current market momentum is still up and that a short at the level you are looking at may not be a high probability trade. Personally, I would ideally like to see a break in momentum and the removal of an opposing zone before looking to get short. This enhances the probability as the break of a momentum line and removal of an opposing zone shows that the market has lost momentum and is not respecting the original trend (removal of zones)

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,564
  • Aug 8, 2019 12:25am Aug 8, 2019 12:25am
Quoting TylerL
{quote} Hi Rox99, Thanks for your chart! Allow me to make some comments based on my current understanding of the methodology. {image} From the charts, it seems to me that the current market momentum is still up and that a short at the level you are looking at may not be a high probability trade. Personally, I would ideally like to see a break in momentum and the removal of an opposing zone before looking to get short. This enhances the probability as the break of a momentum line and removal of an opposing zone shows that the market has lost momentum...
Hi TylerL

Thank you for your comment, I agree my idea in this case is quite aggressive. I do take aggressive ones from time to time, at this stage I agree the selling has not been confirmed since we have been going up based on momentum. Let's see how it plays out.

Cheers
  • #7,565
  • Aug 8, 2019 6:21am Aug 8, 2019 6:21am
Quoting Rox99
{quote} Hi TylerL Thank you for your comment, I agree my idea in this case is quite aggressive. I do take aggressive ones from time to time, at this stage I agree the selling has not been confirmed since we have been going up based on momentum. Let's see how it plays out. Cheers
Hey there Rox99,

Ah, all the best then! Happy trading

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,566
  • Aug 9, 2019 11:55am Aug 9, 2019 11:55am
Hi everyone.

I'm putting gold on my watchlist. Setting up for a nice buying opportunity. Hopefully it will come back to the daily demand level marked for some long positions.

Let's see how it plays out.
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  • #7,567
  • Aug 9, 2019 12:23pm Aug 9, 2019 12:23pm
I'm trying to visualize what's going on when there is "level on level" or "stacked" zones. Is it appropriate to view Yellow areas as I've labeled them?
Or am I seeing the procession of price action events wrong?

I think I understand the balance shift to imbalance, identifying zones, trend evaluation, momentum lines.
What I am contemplating is what happens when a demand zone fails?
Maybe gets removed / violated on a wick and then seems to find new demand deeper below and into the order stack.
What's plan B? Where should it not go?
Where is the danger? Is it possible to see the danger areas in the preceding price action?
Where could it fall through to if a zone doesn't hold?
Should violation of a zone be viewed as a shot across the bow and a search for an early exit?

Trying to think 2 steps ahead in this specific scenario. More from a perspective of I am trying to get long a specific instrument, and where are my high probability trades, and where should price NOT go after I am long. Rather than looking at many markets agnostically and only cherry picking to trade with momentum, with trend for high probability.

Your thoughts please on how you guys plan on what you do NOT want to see if a trade is to work out.
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  • #7,568
  • Aug 9, 2019 1:20pm Aug 9, 2019 1:20pm
Quoting malmal1985
USDCHF: sell = loss WK: supply control, trend down Daily: Uplink is broken, new supply is formed (number 1) check: 1: 2 ok, check: good basic ok sold at supply 1 (arrow) = loss Who can explain where I am wrong {image}
Malmal,
IMO the short off the lower zone was from New supply that did take out some demand on the 4 hour. I don't think it was a bad chance to take on the 4 hour chart.
After entry, however, price really struggled to absorb the 4 hour proximal demand and was moving very passively down and sideways.
If a stack of sell orders was triggered and aggressive selling were to happen, it should've been stronger more obvious selling removing demand zones easily, not struggling.
The short trade from the lower zone could have been managed with an aggressive tight stop with a momentum line downward because of the sideways passive downtrend.
  • #7,569
  • Aug 10, 2019 3:11am Aug 10, 2019 3:11am
Hi everyone, hope your weekend is going well!

Spending some time to review the week's trades, annotations are added to the screen shots shared. One common thing that I noticed from my failed trades are the approaches to the zones taken. Something which I will focus and work on come next week.

EURUSD H4 Short posted on 3rd Aug
https://www.tradingview.com/x/obhBgjcd/

Bitcoin H4 Short posted on 6th Aug
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0REP4Ybm/

EURUSD H1 Short posted on 6th Aug
https://www.tradingview.com/x/i1JjrA20/

AUDUSD H2 Short posted on 8th Aug
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1DVwW66c/

CRUDE H4 Shorts posted on 8th Aug
https://www.tradingview.com/x/22mGB2Ns/

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,570
  • Aug 10, 2019 3:20am Aug 10, 2019 3:20am
Quoting Rox99
Hi everyone. I'm putting gold on my watchlist. Setting up for a nice buying opportunity. Hopefully it will come back to the daily demand level marked for some long positions. Let's see how it plays out. {image} {image}
Hi Rox99,

Was wondering for Gold, why is the zone at around 1475 not considered?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLgHG35B/

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,571
  • Aug 10, 2019 3:33am Aug 10, 2019 3:33am
Quoting cpuz
I'm trying to visualize what's going on when there is "level on level" or "stacked" zones. Is it appropriate to view Yellow areas as I've labeled them? Or am I seeing the procession of price action events wrong? I think I understand the balance shift to imbalance, identifying zones, trend evaluation, momentum lines. What I am contemplating is what happens when a demand zone fails? Maybe gets removed / violated on a wick and then seems to find new demand deeper below and into the order stack. What's plan B? Where should it not go? Where is the danger?...
Hi cpuz,

Those are very good questions that you raised which also left me questioning them. However, I don't have a definite answer and hopefully more experienced traders could offer their opinions.

However, I am able to answer what i DO NOT want to see for a trade to work out. I wouldn't want to see prices respecting supply zones (short bias) and keeping the momentum line. As for what i WANT to see for a trade to work out, I want to see prices losing momentum and removing opposing supply zones. Those criterias, if met, would prompt me to look for long opportunities either on the current or at lower time frames.

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,572
  • Aug 10, 2019 7:52am Aug 10, 2019 7:52am
Good evening everyone!

Was just preparing for the next trading week and some trades popped out.

AUDUSD D1 SHORT
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XAUUSD D1 LONG
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FTSE100 D1 SHORT
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Have a great sunday ahead everyone!

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,573
  • Edited Aug 11, 2019 3:19am Aug 10, 2019 5:49pm | Edited Aug 11, 2019 3:19am
Hello everyone, i'm a young trader from Italy (probably one of the youngest here - 25 yo!). Since now, I didnt have much success in forex trading, because I always feel that something is "missing" in my trading.

I find SAD trading method really interesting and I would like to learn it. I read that I have to forget much of the previous knowledge about other trading methods: I am ready to do so.

I tried to read this post but I dont get where and how i should get started - everyone seems experienced here.

So, my question is: as a TOTALLY NEWBIE, where do I get started with S.A.D.?

Thank you in advance, if someone experienced is willing to help me, please feel 100% free to contact me in PM, i'll be happy to share my email so we can talk there.

A huge hug to the community, and thanks to the author of the post for sharing!
  • #7,574
  • Aug 12, 2019 2:10am Aug 12, 2019 2:10am
Quoting dra794
Hello everyone, i'm a young trader from Italy (probably one of the youngest here - 25 yo!). Since now, I didnt have much success in forex trading, because I always feel that something is "missing" in my trading. I find SAD trading method really interesting and I would like to learn it. I read that I have to forget much of the previous knowledge about other trading methods: I am ready to do so. I tried to read this post but I dont get where and how i should get started - everyone seems experienced here. So, my question is: as a TOTALLY NEWBIE, where...
Hey dra794,

Nice to meet you! Ah ha! You're pretty young haha (I'm a year older). Glad to hear that you're interested in this methodology. There is a wealth of information in this thread and on Akt's youtube channel! I would suggest to start from the videos on his channel, Storehouse Analytics, and then get reading from Page 1 of this thread! Following which, posting your charts for everyone to take a look - at least that's what i'm currently doing. Feel free to ask any questions here! I'm sure you'll get your questions sorted by the helpful people in the thread.

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,575
  • Aug 12, 2019 9:20am Aug 12, 2019 9:20am
Quoting TylerL
{quote} Hey dra794, Nice to meet you! Ah ha! You're pretty young haha (I'm a year older). Glad to hear that you're interested in this methodology. There is a wealth of information in this thread and on Akt's youtube channel! I would suggest to start from the videos on his channel, Storehouse Analytics, and then get reading from Page 1 of this thread! Following which, posting your charts for everyone to take a look - at least that's what i'm currently doing. Feel free to ask any questions here! I'm sure you'll get your questions sorted by the helpful...

Hey Tyler! How are you? First of all, i would like to thank you so much for your reply. Furthermore, thanks for the informations you provided. I've read about you in this post and you look like very skilled with this method. Can I PM/email to you to ask some informations about the method?

Thanks!
  • #7,576
  • Aug 12, 2019 11:24am Aug 12, 2019 11:24am
Quoting TylerL
{quote} Hi Rox99, Was wondering for Gold, why is the zone at around 1475 not considered? https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLgHG35B/ Cheers, Tyler
Hi TylerL

No specific reason, I agree that there is a zone there just not my area of preference. In a situation like this, I would consider the lower one more high probability. Here it's just a preference issue.

Cheers.
  • #7,577
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:14pm Aug 12, 2019 6:14pm
Quoting dra794
{quote} Hey Tyler! How are you? First of all, i would like to thank you so much for your reply. Furthermore, thanks for the informations you provided. I've read about you in this post and you look like very skilled with this method. Can I PM/email to you to ask some informations about the method? Thanks!
Good morning dra794! I'm great thank you.

Ah, I have indeed spent some time looking at this methodology but am still improving along the way and slowly, but surely, getting onto the path of consistency.

Of course you can! Drop me a message any time. I think you might benefit even more if you post your questions here for the more experienced traders to comment though. But nonetheless, I'll gladly help in anyway I can.

Cheers
  • #7,578
  • Aug 12, 2019 6:18pm Aug 12, 2019 6:18pm
Quoting Rox99
{quote} Hi TylerL No specific reason, I agree that there is a zone there just not my area of preference. In a situation like this, I would consider the lower one more high probability. Here it's just a preference issue. Cheers.
Hi Rox99, thanks for the reply!

I would love to understand why you would think the lower zone might have a higher probability? If you don't mind, could kindly take me through why you'd think that?

Cheers,
Tyler
  • #7,579
  • Aug 12, 2019 8:47pm Aug 12, 2019 8:47pm
Good morning traders!

A potentially lesson to be learnt in this GBPUSD H1 Chart.

Not gonna take this trade but would be observing how prices react to the H1 Demand. Prices have entered un-fresh monthly and weekly demand, and a daily demand that was created all the way back in Jan 2017. Having lost momentum on the H1 time frame, I'm interested to find out how prices would react in a zone that was created some time ago.

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Happy trading,
Tyler
  • #7,580
  • Aug 13, 2019 6:25am Aug 13, 2019 6:25am
[quote = TylerL; 12437551] Người giao dịch chào buổi sáng! Một bài học tiềm năng sẽ được học trong Biểu đồ H1 GBPUSD này. Sẽ không thực hiện giao dịch này nhưng sẽ quan sát cách giá phản ứng với Nhu cầu H1. Giá đă nhập vào nhu cầu hàng tháng và hàng tuần không mới, và nhu cầu hàng ngày đă được tạo ra từ tháng 1 năm 2017. Mất đà trên khung thời gian H1, tôi quan tâm t́m hiểu giá sẽ phản ứng như thế nào trong một khu vực đă được tạo ra một thời gian trước đây. {image} Giao dịch vui vẻ, Tyler [/ quote]
I am also very interested in D-H4-H1
My view of gbpusd:
Prices are checking the weekly demand area.
If the price breaks down the day and decreases and creates a strong demand, then buy
Only sell when the price breaks down the weekly demand, there is a candle that the day closes below the weekly demand
Sorry for using google English, English is not my native language
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