WTI Crude Oil Trading

Yes you could be right.

What's a good API number? last time out was about -9m If I recall and it didn't go down well with the bulls as you can see so the lower the better?

Lower stock more demand?

EIA: US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels, WTI drops below $52
7 August 2019, 17:34

The weekly report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that commercial crude oil inventories in the US increased by 2.39 million barrels in the week ending August 2 compared to market expectation for a decline of 2.8 million barrels.
With the initial market reaction, crude oil prices came under a renewed selling pressure and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was down more than 4% on the day at $51.30.
Key takeaways from the press release
"Crude oil imports averaged 7.1 million barrels per day last week."
"Refineries operated at 96.4% of their operable capacity last week."
"Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.4 million barrels per day."
"Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day."
"Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year."

Sorry was driving towards home.

decrease inventory -> more demand
increase inventory -> less demand


some background info:
https://www.danielstrading.com/2016/...-oil-inventory

Curious if we bounce from current levels.

Trend is defined today.

WTI BEARS LINING UP FOR A BREAK OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 50 HANDLE
7 August 2019, 22:29

 

1. WTI drops even further, sent lower by hard data as well as trade war fears.
2. Bears can now target a break of the 50 handle for a look in at the 78.6% Fibo.

The price of a barrel of oil has dropped significantly once again by 3.52%, at the time of writing, marking a low of $50.55 from a high of $53.77. The conditions are set for lower prices all the while that the US and China remain at loggerheads on trade terms which are sapping the speculators desire to buy oil. On hard fundamental data, prices tumbled today due to U.S. inventory data showing an unexpected increase in supplies for last week - The data broke seven straight weeks of declines.

As for futures, West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery lost $2.28, or 4.3%, at $51.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This has left the price of a barrel oil down toward levels last seen in early January and the price is now down more than 20% from the April highs.

U.S. crude oil inventories increasing by 2.4 million barrels weighed on prices

Meanwhile, with prices already in bearish territory, the latest U.S. crude oil inventories increasing by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week was not welcomed news for whatever bulls were left in the markets as recorded and supplied by the Energy Information Administration.
"With more than one third of crude demand growth for this year at risk, the positive supply-side narrative has failed to keep a floor on crude's slump in prices for now," analysts at TD Securities argued:

"Fundamentally, crude prices are in the crosshairs as the market increasingly expects China to retaliate against US tariffs by placing a levy on US crude imports. At the same time, the fact that the US has found evidence of Chinese tankers loading Iranian crude is fueling fears that China will avoid compliance with Iranian sanctions. In this context, downside momentum signals are strengthening — with indicators for WTI crude joining those in Brent crude, implying additional selling pressure from CTAs over the coming days. That being said, the recent round of short accumulation in heating oil appears to be running out of steam."

WTI levels
Technically, the price is below the 61.8%% Fibo of the late Dec to 2019 range and remains smothered below the 50 and 200 daily moving averages. Bears can target below the 50 handle on an escalation of the trade wars. 47.56 coms in as the 78.6% Fibo. On the upside, the 20-D moving average guards the run towards 56.80 and then 60.50.

For WTI U9 contract on H4:

Volatility is high: ATR20 = .90 while the last 3 bars have ranges of about 200, 200, 150 pips. The close might show a turning point, but it's too early to tell.

Bond yields are dropping globally, with widespread negative yields in Europe. Markets and MrT will pressure US rates to further declines.

Precious metals are surging.

Does this describe the FedRes mandarins (or idiot savants if you prefer): When confused or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

Anyway, here is the daily H4:

News is used ?

Last weeks API numbers -8.5 the market tanked.

This weeks Api numbers +2.4 the market tanked.... but at least we may have set the low this time.

WTI? more like WTF

Key levels, BRN 57.67, WTI 51.97 bearish below but I think we could have a sizable swing up from hereabouts

WTI extends recovery from 23.6% Fibo. amid oil-positive headlines/data
8 August 2019, 08:30

 

1. WTI repeatedly bounces off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late-2018 downpour.
2. China trade balance and headlines from the Middle East support the upside momentum.
3. Mild risk-on also favors the price upswing.

Having slumped to nearly seven-month low during Wednesday, WTI takes a U-turn from medium-term key technical level while trading near $52.65 ahead of Thursday’s European session.
Higher than expected prints of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly US Crude Oil Stocks and deterioration of the US-China trade stalemate, after the dragon nation’s another drag to the Yuan fix, seem to have triggered the previous day's decline by the black gold.
On early Thursday, Bloomberg came out with the report saying that Saudi Arabia is secretly preparing to avoid further declines of the energy prices whereas headlines from Venezuela and Iran indicated an increase in geopolitical tensions emanating from the Middle East.
Also supporting the rise could be the improvement in the market’s risk sentiment, as portrayed by the upswing in major yields, and better than forecast July month trade balance data from China.
Investors will now keep following trade/political headlines concerning the US, UK, China and the Middle East in order to portray near-term price direction.

Technical Analysis
In addition to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $50.50, the $50.00 round-figure can also be considered as the key support, a break of which might not refrain from calling $48.00 back to the chart. Alternatively, $55.00 and 50-day moving average (DMA) near $56.00 could restrict near-term upside of the oil benchmark.

As long as it's stays above blue area i am somewhat bullish. Below that area ... fasten your seat belts

Here are my chart and levels on crude oil, for me price is likely to push up for today as long as price stays above the first line which is 51.82 is most likely that price will get to the next price level which is 54.68 there we could see a pull back and if it breaks it to up side then the chances are there for price to get to the next level up.

My expectation is that the third or the fourth level could set back the bearish move back on track.

good luck

Would you like to try a more rational horizontal grid (my experimental indi) ?

Thnx TC! Do you have a coding background?

Part of being an engineer. Let me know of any problems with it.

Like i said before on crude oil, now i am long as price went down a bit near the first broken yellow line and i hope to get out at the next yellow line SL is a little more below the first broken yellow line.

Remember to always break the rules and fuck the news at all times because i have paid the price and you can keep the change

Nice to know ... so when we're forced to migrate to MT5 we know where to find you

Nice fast scalp on GBPJPY