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Get real forex volume

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Aug 10, 2019 8:57am Aug 5, 2019 3:24am | Edited Aug 10, 2019 8:57am

Get real forex volume



As you may know it ain't easy to gather any real forex volume.
Some people may rely on futures data, but Forex has a 3 figure billion capacity each day - currencies being traded on the future market make less than 4% of this market. You cannot predict or learn anything from it.

Since the forex market is that huge, it is a big challenge to get any reliable volume data from it.

Me and a friend of mine, a senior coder, have found out a way which makes it possible to get real forex volume data:

We are connecting and analyzing 100+ sentiment suppliers, which make up to 75% of the whole forex volume.
Including the 5 biggest banks involved into currency trading (which are Deutsche, UBS, Citigroup, Goldman and HSBC).

Now imagine that: You will be able see a real sentiment change in the currency you are trading - live!

This gives us a reliable trading edge in any situation - we can always be sure to trade into the correct direction!

We are planning to send out telegram messages for any sentiment change that occurs on the big currency pairs.

Let us know if you are interested so we can kick this project off!

This would have been the most major sentiment changes we would have uncovered in the last 1,5 years on a daily basis:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1 day volume.PNG Size: 45 KB


But this is only on the highest safety settings. Of course there are a lot more signals during this period - we only highlighted those, that a) have been the biggest and b) would have brought you the highest win-rates.

Imagine you would have traded into the correct direction... with full confidence - you may be a lot richer now ; )

What we need now are traders, that are interested in this service.
As for the beginning, we will offer a low monthly subscription as the website is not ready yet.

Please let us know if you are interested.
Check page 1 for all infos...
  • #2
  • Aug 5, 2019 4:34am Aug 5, 2019 4:34am
wow ... basic price cycle and volume ... and if plus time is very holigrail ... very interesting .... subscribe
The Average Discount Everything
  • #3
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:10am Aug 5, 2019 10:10am
subscribed
  • #4
  • Aug 5, 2019 10:16pm Aug 5, 2019 10:16pm
Interested in hearing more....
Believe and Achieve!
  • #5
  • Aug 6, 2019 2:10am Aug 6, 2019 2:10am
Subscribed
  • #6
  • Aug 6, 2019 5:32am Aug 6, 2019 5:32am
subscribed
  • #7
  • Aug 6, 2019 6:53am Aug 6, 2019 6:53am
Thank you very much, working now hard to achieve the task and complete the site very soon!
Check page 1 for all infos...
  • #8
  • Aug 6, 2019 7:14am Aug 6, 2019 7:14am
Hi Andrew,

How do you have acces to FX volume from deutch bank, UBS etc... ?
  • #9
  • Edited 8:40am Aug 6, 2019 8:21am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting AndrewBa-
This gives us a reliable trading edge in any situation - we can always be sure to trade into the correct direction!.
Imagine you would have traded into the correct direction... with full confidence - you may be a lot richer now
LOL what a bunch of BS. Prove it !

I have read in the past maybe in this book "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates" ( i m not sure) and in a recent studie with the top 10 banks where ticks volume and money volume were correlated at 98 % and 95% , why on earth the missing 5% will give you the super-powerfull tool as you claim to dominate the market ?

Just a gimmick to sell a useless gadget. It's not worth it. Institutional or serious traders can all laugh about it.
  • #10
  • Edited 5:28am Aug 7, 2019 2:11am | Edited 5:28am
Quoting duxis
{quote}I have read in the past maybe in this book "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates" ( i m not sure) and in a recent studie with the top 10 banks where ticks volume and money volume were correlated at 98 % and 95% , why on earth the missing 5% will give you the super-powerfull tool as you claim to dominate the market ?
According to your study, it must be totally nonsense to use any volume data at all.

That means, that all those traders - your honorable institutional traders as well as professional daytraders - are all on the wrong path, as indeed all of them are gathering and using volume data analysis that must be useless (and they are paying for it).

More than that, the whole industry - such as CME, and many software developers that depend on it and offer trading platforms, that deliver an insight into the chart-volume - all have to be wrong.

Up to your theory, we all must be totally lucky with using retail trading software and that's it... Which is not.

I used to trade on ticks, until I realized that this was the real nonsense:

A tick is being generated, when a trade is fulfilled at the markets. Nothing more. It does not tell you anything about the volume that stands behind that.
In other words: It can have any size - from 0.01 lots to 100k lots...
Does this make a difference in your eyes?!

A volume insight shows you the real volume that is being dealed behind that, and this is what it is about:

It is important to know the real sentiment and when it begins to change and trade on behalf of it.

Quoting duxis
{quote}Prove it !
Yes, I will. And I will give you examples, that show a risk-reward ratio of 1:4 or more.

Quoting Gregv
Hi Andrew, How do you have acces to FX volume from deutch bank, UBS etc... ?
Well, this is the secret...

There is a settlement infrastructe that these big banks use, and you can have legal access to it.
But you need a software that analysis all data and puts it together in a way that is convenient to the conditions we need, this is what we are developing.

In addition to that, we also use other sentiment suppliers; those names are just 5 out of 100+ on the list.
Check page 1 for all infos...
  • #11
  • Aug 7, 2019 11:46am Aug 7, 2019 11:46am
Quoting AndrewBa-
{quote} According to your study, it must be totally nonsense to use any volume data at all. It can have any size - from 0.01 lots to 100k lots... Does this make a difference in your eyes?!
Let's talk seriously please and don't insult skilled analysts in data processing. It's clear one tick alone says nothing but with billions ...

open your eyes, this is an example : real money volume vs ticks volume (eurusd M1)

Attached Image



Most people (pigeons) you try to attract use mostly MT4 platform (not the best for microstructure analysis) but with a true ECN , model agency or even an institutional broker (mine can handle their MT4 data feed very well) a good coder can set up a project in a acceptable level by ABSTRACT the real volume when ticks volume are strongly correlated (see the graph) without paying a stupid fee. What you give is a placebo since you are not an high frequency trader or involved in arbitrage.
  • #12
  • Aug 8, 2019 2:23am Aug 8, 2019 2:23am
Quoting duxis
{quote} Let's talk seriously please and don't insult skilled analysts in data processing. It's clear one tick alone says nothing but with billions ... open your eyes, this is an example : real money volume vs ticks volume (eurusd M1) {image} Most people (pigeons) you try to attract use mostly MT4 platform (not the best for microstructure analysis) but with a true ECN , model agency or even an institutional broker (mine can handle their MT4 data feed very well) a good coder can set up a project in a acceptable level by ABSTRACT the real volume when...
Can you please answer me a few questions:

1) Where do you have that data you are responding to from?!
As of today, you must pay at least 18.000 $ a year to only be able to gather half of worldwide forex volume - and no, the price is not negotiable as there is only one supplier for. So I ask myself on which data sets you are relying your analysis...
Or if it is maybe just mirroring your brokers tick data?!
Hink: If you want to compare real volume data with ticks, better use reliable volume data of indices or stocks (you of course have to subscribe to), because when it comes to this assets you at least have real and transparent volume data which you can compare.

2) Wouldn't you be interested in real sentiment data, and see when it begins to shift from buy to sell or vise versa?!

3) You say I give a 'placebo'... and only high-frequency traders are in need of real volume data.
This is wrong, as I know a bunch of daytraders, that do trading via volume analysis, but they are not high-frequency traders and trade in the 5-min. chart or higher.
I also know from other experiences, that many institutional traders are making use of volume data on a daily basis.
So you say, all these professional people are paying their fees for senseless stuff, and could just rely on ticks...?!

PS:
You say in your last post - "real money volume vs. ticks volume"

Well, as you may know now, it is not possible to actually have 'real money volume' when it comes to forex, because the closest you can get is 50% of real volume.
I think you just copy + paste that graphic here, without to know where the numbers actually come from.
Check page 1 for all infos...
  • #13
  • Aug 8, 2019 3:17am Aug 8, 2019 3:17am
We can have 3 kind of volume data these days:

  1. tick change (that's always given us by all MT5 Terminals for free)
  2. tick change with volume (could be interesting to weight the tick as you already wrote 0.01 Lot or 10 Lots etc.) - but i also agree to duxis that it will not give us that kind of edge we dream of
  3. tick change with all deal informations - that's the only kind of information we can use to build real sentiments - i think you hava access to refinitiv tick data which seems to only source i know that could give that informations (unfortunately i can't verify it maybe it's like in MT5 that you only get deals for stocks)

The more interesting part woul be the level 2/3 data that could be gathered from refinitv. No big institute will work on level 1 data these days (or why do you think the retailers got access to level 1 for free over the time?). If you can deliver level 2/3 data i'm more than interested in your service.

This is one idea to analyze level2/3 data (rumors say that the author disappeared in sweden after 1 year with tax debts over several millions)
http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?f...ileOId=7373738

  • #14
  • Edited 2:59pm Aug 9, 2019 12:10pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting AndrewBa-
Or if it is maybe just mirroring your brokers tick data? I think you just copy + paste that graphic here, without to know where the numbers actually come from.
it's an illustration , it's not my broker,i know my source. i have much more than that. I am in my thirteenth year in this game , if i want to rig something it's the sentiment of my counterpart in my trade and I am not in need to sell crap or something.

Quoting AndrewBa-
it is not possible to actually have 'real money volume' when it comes to forex, because the closest you can get is 50% of real volume.

let's introduce a nuance to this.
According to C.I.S , 58 % of volume for the top 10 BK (Citi, JPM, UBS, DB, BOA, Barclays,GS, HSBC,XTX, MS) ,
today most brokers/LPs are connected with these , if you have a large liquidity like me and you add : BNP,SocGen, Nomura, RBS, CommerzBk, Credit Suisse, RBC, SEB , i forget) you approach 70% or something.
So you are on a road trip in search of some Hedge funds and smallest banks liquidity ? right ? Ask yourself who is driving the game , top tiers1 banks, you have the money you have the Colt. Some are followers in market making. 58% of volume could be 80 % in influence, 70% >>> 96% in influence, it's enough , extrapolation works great in this case.

Quoting JensItzig
but i also agree to duxis that it will not give us that kind of edge we dream
thank you !
  • #15
  • Aug 10, 2019 3:52am Aug 10, 2019 3:52am
Quoting duxis
{quote}let's introduce a nuance to this. According to C.I.S , 58 % of volume for the top 10 BK (Citi, JPM, UBS, DB, BOA, Barclays,GS, HSBC,XTX, MS) , today most brokers/LPs are connected with these , if you have a large liquidity like me ...
"today most brokers/LPs are connected with these"
so, this makes you actually know what volume they trade, on which side of the market and what live-sentiment they have?!
Boy, you must be living in a dream-world if you want to sell something like this to me...
I don't know how far you know about gathering real sentiment and volume, but what you said makes absolutely no sense - because you actually did not really answered it but just outlined some market statistics, that tell me nothing about how you get the data:
In your theory it would mean that I - as private retail investor - can open a brokerage account at some forex broker, and already have insight into volume of the 10 biggest banks and whay or into which direction they are trading... This is bs.
As I told you in my previous post, only way to get forex volume for 50% of the 18 biggest currency pairs one must already pay 18.000 $ a year - and there is only one way (one institution), that can deliver this information.
So, if you know so much around volume, you must be able to name it to me.

Quoting duxis
{quote} it's an illustration , it's not my broker,i know my source.
You did not really answered my first question. I asked you a) where you got that numbers from and b) how you can be 100% sure, that it is valid to be compared - because again, a) no one has 100% volume data ... and b) only possibility to gather eur usd forex volume data is to pay a certain institution.
So I clearly ask myself: Where do you got that data from, who is doing that comparisment?! - As I know, that you are not willing to pay for data (a large sum), an call it just crap... while professional forex traders are getting the information and paying the sum.

Quoting duxis
{quote} So you are on a road trip in search of some Hedge funds and smallest banks liquidity ?
No, I'm not, never said something like this. If you read my introducing post correctly, I said I can deliver up to 75% of real forex volume (sentiment); I do not care about the rest...

Quoting JensItzig
but i also agree to duxis that it will not give us that kind of edge we dream of
Knowing when a big and real sentiment change happens, can give you the extra edge!
Check page 1 for all infos...
  • #16
  • Edited 12:17pm Aug 10, 2019 11:05am | Edited 12:17pm
Quoting AndrewBa-
Knowing when a big and real sentiment change happens, can give you the extra edge!
I agree that this gives an extra edge for sure. But...

Only real volume instead tick volume gives us only an extra weight for a given price. This information alone will not worth the 18k per year. And for that scenario I will fully agree with duxis. why? Because we still must guess if smart money is now long or short because we didn’t get this information with only real volume.

In the following scenarios we will gain more informations and an extra edge:

Deals: With Deal ticks we get the info at which price deal was made and we can assume that deals at ask price telling us that bulls buy from bears. Deals at bid selling from bulls to bears. When we know see the real volume we are able to assume on wich side the smart money get with that deal. That would be great and worth 1,5k per month

Level 2/3: As I mentioned this would be prime information for everyone and like peeking into future. For sure worth the fee you mentioned.

Since you not told us what kind of informations you can deliver it’s only a discussion between you and duxis who has the bigger balls and knowledge. So let us all go back to zero and discuss about the informations you can deliver and move
forward.

I good weekend to all of you
  • #17
  • Oct 22, 2019 2:35am Oct 22, 2019 2:35am
Hi

Subscribed here too, thanks for this
  • #18
  • Dec 8, 2019 7:14pm Dec 8, 2019 7:14pm
Hi Andrew, keen to subscribe...
  • #19
  • Dec 8, 2019 9:10pm Dec 8, 2019 9:10pm
I did this over a decade ago with the likes of EBS, Reuters, Bloomberg Currenex, HotspotFX and Integral. Volume drives every price tick there is, if there's no adjustment in price there's no change in volume as volume is the enticement of the auction theory to push the motives of price takers as a reaction to the price makers. Volume itself is important but if you truly don't understand market microstructure then you're still lost in the woods. The aggregation is simple it just takes a high frequency engine like Rapid Addition's Cheetah FIX engine. The aggregation is easy.. it's the filtering of redundancy, the right statistics, and so much more. If you think simple aggregation is going to work guess again. Why? Because as a market maker when my platform fires up and starts streaming quotes into all the institutional ECN's, I am required by those ECN's to contribute BOTH a bid and an ask at the same time. Without both the quote's get kicked back rather frequently.

What does this mean? It means that HALF the orders in ALL limit order books have zero interest in being executed on in other words... they are bull sh_t orders.. and knowing the aggregation is garbage if you don't understand the approach of each institution within the aggregation. You'll find market makers in the book who spread their feeds 7/10 of a pip and they do take both sides of trades but that's when they are certain that the pressure is coming from both sides and they can very easily flip the trade out to another price taker.

Enjoy!
The charts are wrong but the world accepts what it doesn't know.
  • #20
  • Dec 8, 2019 10:08pm Dec 8, 2019 10:08pm
Quoting Csfxtrading
I did this over a decade ago with the likes of EBS, Reuters, Bloomberg Currenex, HotspotFX and Integral. Volume drives every price tick there is, if there's no adjustment in price there's no change in volume as volume is the enticement of the auction theory to push the motives of price takers as a reaction to the price makers. Volume itself is important but if you truly don't understand market microstructure then you're still lost in the woods. The aggregation is simple it just takes a high frequency engine like Rapid Addition's Cheetah FIX engine....
That...actually makes alot of sense. So with the volume, does it work on lower time-frames as well or just on higher ones?
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