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Bronco Capital's ABCD Harmonic Pattern Journal 94 replies

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The Bucking Bronco

  • #2,121
  • Edited 3:20am Aug 7, 2019 2:55am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Piquant
Since I can't see beyond the setup ...
It is not wrong. It is a correct possibility to trade the price.

Examine that set-up or pattern.
When is it OK? Under what conditions?
When is it defeated? What must happen to define it as defeated?
Where must my stop be placed?
And if my stop is taken, then what should I do?

This is how you build your pre-planned sequence!
I tried to expose this scheme on TAF without success.
Only fti got the meaning and the implications of a reasoning like that.

Hey. It is not me. It's the "saint triad": Livermore, Gann & Wyckoff. It's the classical thinking.
There are no secrets at all.
  • #2,122
  • Aug 7, 2019 3:13am Aug 7, 2019 3:13am
You can do that for one pattern at the time... and make your toolkit grow slowly, step by step.

However, it is necessary to know that passing from theory to practice you will encounter a combative market:
much more complicated and different in opinions from the simple, essential and linear textbook.
  • #2,123
  • Aug 7, 2019 4:11am Aug 7, 2019 4:11am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Examine that set-up or pattern. When is it OK? Under what conditions? When is it defeated? What must happen to define it as defeated? Where must my stop be placed? And if my stop is taken, then what should I do? This is how you build your pre-planned sequence! I tried to expose this scheme on TAF without success.
This is exactly what I've been trying do! only that setting apart the original concept (the measuring rule) from the variations took so much time/effort along with much doubt and frustration - the spiral just never seemed to end but I knew I was onto something "factual" it just seemed incomplete or needed to be looked at from another angle but the base was there does it make sense ?

Absolutely !!

Books do not capture the complexities of market movement absolutely! - but they are there to instill a seed I guess for us to investigate further.

Quote
You can do that for one pattern at the time... and make your toolkit grow slowly, step by step.

It sure is going to take considerable amount of time and constant practice. I tried to force the progress but have since decided to take it slow STEP by STEP to master a single kick first.
...
  • #2,124
  • Edited 5:03am Aug 7, 2019 4:27am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} This is exactly what I've been trying do!
As I already said... No shortcuts... sorry!
If you want to trade patterns you must know how they form/transform and how to trade them.

Try to study the Index of your manual books as a first thing.
Get the classification criteria.
Reversal vs Continuation.
One, two, three candles formations.
Western vs Eastern.
Similarity and differences.

They are all variations on the concept of S/R.
  • #2,125
  • Aug 7, 2019 5:06am Aug 7, 2019 5:06am
Quoting Piquant
..the spiral just never seemed to end..
Spiral will never end. Sorry 2.
You just reduce/control the number (and size) of mistakes.

Let the market tells her story. This is the commandment.
Ask the market about the market. Gently.
Use your scout wisely is the tactics: the Probing Method.... and when you are right, then, do the magic!
  • #2,126
  • Aug 7, 2019 5:16am Aug 7, 2019 5:16am
Quoting Jupiter
About Brexit - 1 Fantastic advertising campaign.
About Brexit 6
Joking of Marmite's ad.
Brexit means breakfast, right?
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  • #2,127
  • Aug 7, 2019 5:43am Aug 7, 2019 5:43am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} I immediately went to search for an acoustic version... (I love all the eastern music: ancient, classical or modern pop) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWq_WFoYKQI
I was wondering if you will like this version or the original. glad you found this.
The spark that starts the bonfire
  • #2,128
  • Edited Aug 8, 2019 2:10am Aug 7, 2019 11:37pm | Edited Aug 8, 2019 2:10am
Quoting Piquant
The uncertainty can become so overwhelming at times No matter how hard you try to make your judgement/rule/entry as close to perfection as possible It will prevail
I have to mark the specificity of my view because in 200 pages of two threads it could easily be missed or forgotten.

Markets have their owners.
Owners have vested interest, aims and objectives.... and they have tactics and strategies to obtain them.
Markets respect profound laws.
Markets have a deep logic.
On the battlefield we face Bulls Campaigns and Bears Campaigns.
“Campaign” is a term that has a particular and specific significance.

Price and Markets are not completely unpredictable.
Just like water, the Price will take “the Path of Least Resistance” between different Clouds of Orders.
We could perfectly guesstimate where the possible Clouds of Orders of the different participants could be.
We have a main direction and a series of precise “Time Windows”, precise “Levels of Interest”
where seasoned and expert traders surely have an edge, even if they don't see the Orders' Flow!

On the battlefield there are no constant conditions.
The relative, comparative Force can mutate at each new trench during the eternal fight between Bulls and Bears.
So.
Question is the UNCERTAINTY on the result, not the ANTICIPATION/EXPECTATION of SOME SPECIFIC reactions and behaviours.
  • #2,129
  • Edited 11:59pm Aug 7, 2019 11:38pm | Edited 11:59pm
Where do you go from here? There is no substitute for experience.

Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.

Study with passion. Prepare yourself. Cure (and demo) your education.
It is important to get a thorough understanding of the fundamentals of trading.
Armed with this knowledge you will make fewer mistakes, and you will learn much more quickly from the mistakes that you do make.
As a matter of fact..
if your buying and selling are at points which more often than not result in net losses,
then it makes no difference how you divide up your capital or apply it in the market, for it will be bound to shrink
until, eventually, it has all disappeared. (Death for the thousand arrows)
The first problem, then, is to learn to use the technical tools (TLs and MAs), patterns, trends, embedded trends, Supports, Resistances, etc.
Then we can consider how much money we will risk and in what way.

Then, if you want to become a trader you must start to trade Real. There is no substitute!
You must also make mistakes.
Making mistakes is part of trading.
If you don’t start trading using actual money — and enough money that it affects you when you win or lose —
you won’t learn all the lessons of trading.
Demo trading is not a total substitute for trading with real money.
If you aren’t using real money, you won’t learn how hope, fear, and greed affect you personally.
  • #2,130
  • Edited Aug 8, 2019 12:51am Aug 7, 2019 11:41pm | Edited Aug 8, 2019 12:51am
Quoting Jupiter
You just reduce/control the number (and size) of mistakes.
I'm marking the difference of my personal view, expressly and clearly.
If you know what you're doing ...
if you know how to constantly realign with the Trend ...
then the answer is: readly admit your errors, fix mistakes immediately. = use your scouts and stop loss!
Avoid or abandon this damned bullshit of constant averaging and/or hedging.

If you don't know what you're doing ... then every shot will be a disaster!
Thousands of mistakes, thousands of stop taken.

As an unprepared newbie you will be terrorised by your losses.
When you know what you're doing you will discover that, right on the contrary, the answer is... love your losses. Your best loss is the first loss.
Yes. Your losses will transform themselves in precious informations: it is one of the major Livermore's lessons!
  • #2,131
  • Edited 1:56am Aug 8, 2019 12:18am | Edited 1:56am
Bill Williams:
"By being less rigid in our trading, we are able to go with the flow.
Rather than pushing the river, we become the river and find the natural flow of the market."

"When we are living in gratitude, anger cannot penetrate our being."
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  • #2,132
  • Aug 8, 2019 9:38pm Aug 8, 2019 9:38pm
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  • #2,133
  • Edited 3:20am Aug 9, 2019 12:44am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting Jupiter
there's a large opinion here that you, with your teachings, advocate a sort of “continuous averaging down” trading without cutting losses and in constant “rescue” of wrong positions. Sorry to call a spade a spade.... but I have to. I received all sort of insults trying to defend your point of view.
We are at a crucial point... to me and for me.
In the quote above there are some lines I wrote on TAF... where the matter remained unsolved.
(I marked my thoughts in the last posts on this journal.)
And this below is a post of today just confirming my judgement on what most of the TAF readers think.
Quoting Jacque
...rescue is within attack, and attack is within rescue. they lead to each other in endless cycle.
...when rescue is sucessful, mean stratetgy and read of market is correct..... hope it helps.
So. Who is right?
Are we still talking of crash of egos?
Here on the table there are complete different set of concepts on trading price. Different incompatible UNIVERSES.
There will be an answer?
Will fti enter the wormhole?

Do you want to know something? I'm not at all curious about the answer. In fact, I don't care at all.
I have my personal leading Mental Road Map.
I'm just saddened by this impossibility of serious discussion and confrontation.
  • #2,134
  • Aug 9, 2019 3:40am Aug 9, 2019 3:40am
GM,
I'm not fully experienced, but according to my testing, rescue is the way to hell. It certainly works sideways, but once you get caught up in the trend, then you're dead.
I like your strategy very much, if the scout is in the water, cut him immediately with a planned loss.
But I certainly agree with the "rescue" in the attack, but this level I have not yet reached.

In the past, I saved this answer by FTI:
Quoting fti
{quote} + The skewing that is taught is way to rescue bad starts. But if you skewed up to wave 3 elliot count chances is you trading against trend. There is no way to reskew to rescue because you point man is in the wrong direction. So you don't skew every trade blind. You need to know where the market is based on the chart positions. Rescues skews are not the most profitable trades. Attacks skews are. Together they work to keep your book always in + or flat at worst. Regards
Have a nice weekend.
Don't think!
  • #2,135
  • Edited 11:51pm Aug 9, 2019 4:22am | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting LiboCop
..In the past, I saved this answer by FTI.... "So you don't skew every trade blind".
These guys have no idea of what "prevailing" Trend means.
They have no idea about "Trading in the right direction".
So they are not able to discern, distinguish and differentiate between "Bad Timed" entry and "Counter Trend" entry.
This is why they don't understand me and my critics to their misinterpretation of things & facts.

This is why I concentrated myself of Right Side and Trend Stalking.
I don't want to discuss neither about Skews nor on Rescue.
To easy to use them as companions and partners of ignorance. Substitute of correct knowledge.
No. Not my way of thinking.

Learn to get the right direction, first. Then, all the rest.
  • #2,136
  • Aug 9, 2019 4:24am Aug 9, 2019 4:24am
Simply a Bad Timing action or a contrary Freight Train coming?

"The only thing to do when a man is wrong is ceasing to be wrong!" - Jesse livermore
  • #2,137
  • Aug 10, 2019 12:27am Aug 10, 2019 12:27am
No. We are not all brothers and sisters here!
If you, my dear reader, are "a good person", "pure in heart"... be careful.
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  • #2,138
  • Aug 10, 2019 12:53am Aug 10, 2019 12:53am
In the end the question is always just between we (ourselves, as single...) and Mother Market.
Our convictions and our decisions on the battlefield.
Nothing else matter more than this.
Remember, The Greats always said "Isolate yourself!"

W.D. Gann - from “Speculation a Profitable Profession” - 1954
“Learn to work hard and study. The more you study the greater your success will be.
Knowledge is the greatest thing you can have. It is better than money in the bank.
You can never lose KNOWLEDGE and no one can STEAL it from YOU; therefore, get all the KNOWLEDGE YOU possibly can.”
  • #2,139
  • Edited 10:47am Aug 10, 2019 7:12am | Edited 10:47am
Another step to the right?
Salvini, secretary of the Italian sovereignist and racist party, has brought down the current government of which he was one of the two members,
together with the populist party.
Italy is going towards new general elections.
Last night, using exactly the same words pronounced by Benito Mussolini in a terrible speech against democracy,
he asked the Italians for "the full powers" in order to realize his own program "without any ball and chain"!
"Those who choose Salvini know what they choose ”, he said with frightful clarity.
As I said... words have a meaning... words are important!
Why did Salvini use that exact expression?
In the History of Politics those words have only one unambiguous interpretation.
We have the "decree of full powers" from the king to Mussolini in Italy in 1922.
And we have the "decree of full powers" from the Reichstag - the German parliament - to the National Socialist Party of Adolf Hitler in 1933.
Now Salvini is asking the full powers directly from the people: the Divine Investiture.
If elected with the votes that the polls attribute to him (36-40%), Salvini and his party could reach the votes to change the Constitution
and elect the new President of the Republic.
Is it clear what am I talking about?
Italy is a right-wing country that has never really come to terms with fascism.
In Democracy that bullshit of “full powers” doesn't exist.
We have the Division of Powers, the autonomy and independence of Judiciary and the joint action of weights and counterweights...
together with the Centrality of Parliament.
Democracy is something else, not what Salvini (and Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping) think.

Yes, OK, polls are not the reality but...
At the horizon I see a possible authoritarian government with an imminent attack to Europe and Euro.
The independent Italian press presented evidence of a strong financing by Putin's Russia to Salvini's party.
And Salvini refused to discuss objections in Parliament.
All that is an extremely serious matter.
Poor Italy and poor me.
  • #2,140
  • Aug 10, 2019 10:44pm Aug 10, 2019 10:44pm
Quoting Jupiter
Another step to the right?
Italian Stock Exchange at the close of Friday: -2,48%.
Unfortunately on my platform I can't trade it.
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