MACD Simple Cross System | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

simple MACD and EMA cross 1 reply

Help with MACD & MA of MACD Cross indicator 0 replies

Simple MACD System - Make 100 Pips a Week! 15 replies

Simple MACD system based on 2 channels 122 replies

New Simple MA Cross System 39 replies

Attachments: MACD Simple Cross System
Exit Attachments

MACD Simple Cross System

Oct 11, 2020
Last Sync: Oct 11, 2020
Oct 11, 2020
Last Sync: Oct 11, 2020
Oct 11, 2020
Last Sync: Oct 11, 2020
Oct 11, 2020
Last Sync: Oct 11, 2020
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #81
  • Aug 4, 2019 8:54am Aug 4, 2019 8:54am
Quoting Bfxs
The first thing I want to discuss is the money management to trade using Lukass' original idea that I told you I was testing. I went ahead and made some changes to the original EA.
Those are some really good returns! I don't think there is anything anomalous about 2019 though. Look at the SEASONAL PATTERN!

I simply placed a vertical on your plot where the obvious valleys occurred. The spacing looked so regular that I added a horizontal line between the first two verticals, then copied it and placed between succeeding verticals. As you can see, that distance between valleys is clearly on a cycle. The cycle is about 7.7 months from valley-to-valley. So clearly, we need to look at those months where the EA is losing and see if we can determine what is different about the market structure in that month compared to the rest of the year. If we find something, it may be possible to switch the EA to a different algorithm. Worst case would be to simply not trade at all that month. (Yeah, that's the ticket! Go on vacation. Right. Uh-huh. Use some of that pip harvest to have some fun!)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 104 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #82
  • Aug 4, 2019 9:05am Aug 4, 2019 9:05am
Quoting Bfxs
Now, moving to DrDave's MACD idea, I've finished the EA, and did some quick testing to see if it does what it's supposed to do, and it works. Regarding the profitability of it, I didn't get happy results,
So with the MACD(12,26,9) your results don't sound so good. Maybe a different MACD, or using 2 MACDs would fare better. As you can see in post #77, I have changed the periods of the stochastics from what I first used, so maybe the MACD settings need some change as well.

If I have time this week, I will try running the EA and see what happens.

In any case, I suspect the stochastics system would perform better. The basis for that is already in post #77.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #83
  • Aug 4, 2019 9:44am Aug 4, 2019 9:44am
Quoting Bfxs
{quote} DrDave, this is a really interesting system and it seems easy to follow. My only question is, what is the exit strategy here? When to take the profit and close the order, and when to take the loss?
I left taking profit and exiting losses to the discretion of the user. However, if you did not catch my remarks earlier in post #71, just set TP at 10 pips. Because this is using H1, TP of 10 pips normally happens several times a day. Many of the trades actually run much more than 10 pips. But WHO CARES! A GOAL of 10 pips is set; when it is reached, it doesn't matter that price continued further. I am often not at the screen to see it any way.

As for exiting, that is a matter of risk tolerance that everyone must decide for himself. How much money (MONEY , not pips, not a percentage of your capital) are you willing to lose on a single trade? When you figure that out, then you can do your lot sizing. Do not use risk:reward ratio! That is a "feel good" number that does not really mean anything for the logic of your trade. It is really only helpful for evaluating what kind of R:R you need to have to at least break even in systems that have less than about 50:50 win rate.

I don't even use what I would call a "real" stop loss; I use a last resort fail-safe stop loss. Because I have CONFIDENCE in my system of reaching 10 pips (or only 5 pips with 2x the lot size when in low volatility), I really don't care if it retraces 3x or 4x of my 10 pip target. However, because I am taking trades that have a high probability of MOMENTUM in my direction, there is usually little or NO drawdown. Again, check the trades in the Trade Explorer and see how much the price goes against the trade.

The one that has the largest drawdown during the trade is one that I already knew had high probability of some amount of drawdown, because I took it on a small time frame when the actual chart that was making the move was H1. I already know that the NORMAL behavior is when a larger chart starts a move in a new direction, the smaller charts will do cycling AGAINST it before turning back and moving the bigger chart to profit. In fact, I often look for the retracement on EVERY chart below the larger one that is making a new move and enter the continuation. I EXPECT that the lowest charts will have some amount of drawdown. But this is more advanced trade management. I posted this simple system based on the stochastics because most people would be confused when looking at 3 charts at one time. So I tweaked the stochastics settings to eliminate as many other indicators as possible (e.g. the RSI) that still enable simple signals that lead to high probability of harvesting 10 pips.

Try not to get in too late in the day. If you check the trades in my Trade Explorer, you will see that the first several ones are with lots of 0.02 that were closed with 5 pips and were carried overnight. Look what the overnight swap did to the actual profit! I left those trades on overnight on purpose because some people had asked me why not hold trades overnight. When they see the money sucked away by the swap, it makes a better impression than just telling them "you will lose a chunk of your money if you do."

I am sure that you will agree this can be easily adapted to trade with an EA.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #84
  • Aug 4, 2019 12:19pm Aug 4, 2019 12:19pm
Dear BFXS,

your EA-2.0 delivers worse results than your first EA because
a) your exits are a bad choice - the ones in your first EA are much better
b) Stop-Loss: it makes more sense to give in number of pips, i. e. SL 20 or 40 pips (because there is a big difference between ATR of EURUSD and GBPNZD)
c) in addition to your exit (first EA) you should think about one more category: trailing stop, i. e. 40 pips, but discretionary (because there is a big difference between EURUSD and GBPNZD)

if you want to adjust your EA to my system (ZIgZag for trend direction - on any timeframe - and MACD to enter and exit trades - let me know).
It would only need a few small changes and improve results greatly.

TP: 10 Pips - DrDave
it doesn't really make sense to fix your TP to 10 Pips (especially regardless of currency pair).
a)Sometimes slippage will be too high to make trades worth your while if you limit yourself to 10 Pips.
b) If a trend movement is under way you should participate as long as possible - there will be drawdowns in any system, that's why you need some big winners sometimes to make up for that.

Finally: DrDave's Stoch-system:
Have a look at swingman's coding/interpretation of RobinHood's strategy - it makes your approach even look simpler, I think.

Keep up the good work.
  • #85
  • Aug 4, 2019 4:18pm Aug 4, 2019 4:18pm
Quoting DrDave
So clearly, we need to look at those months where the EA is losing and see if we can determine what is different about the market structure in that month compared to the rest of the year.
Which is the hardest thing to find, because if we can see why and when this happens, we can simply turn off our EA and keep all of our profit without losing anything, which sound a little bit "perfect." But, anything we can find can help us.

Quoting DrDave
So with the MACD(12,26,9) your results don't sound so good. Maybe a different MACD, or using 2 MACDs would fare better.
You can change the settings for the MACD externally, so you can try different options. As for using two MACDs, that needs to be re-programmed. So, we can look into it next.

Quoting DrDave
In any case, I suspect the stochastics system would perform better.
Although the EA is not created yet so no back-testing has been done, but I too think it has better potentials, so I will try to work on it this week and we'll see. It will probably take me longer because work is getting crazy, but I hope I can do this one in a week.

I will also try to see if I can use your input here to catch good trades manually this week, this will help me better understand the system, and it's also something fun to do when I have the time. Hopefully, I can harvest some pips lol.

So, I'll keep you guys posted, and you guys keep us posted. Enjoy your week ahead.
  • #86
  • Aug 4, 2019 4:32pm Aug 4, 2019 4:32pm
Quoting josi
your EA-2.0 delivers worse results than your first EA.
Josi, you're absolutely right, the second EA is not delivering any good results, and the points you mentioned are reasonable.

I don't know if you've been following this thread or not, but Lukass, who started this thread had an idea. In Forex, to see if your idea makes money or not, you need to test it over a long period of time. Manually, that could take months, so we're just creating EAs to back-test them quickly. Lukass started this thread and DrDave gave many suggestions and ideas as to potential improvement idea. For me, I just came here asked a friend to create an EA, and then I started adjusting it and creating new ones based on what they've been discussing and based on what I've learned from that first EA. We're doing that so we can run back-tests quicker and we can test different scenarios and see which works best. We know they are not profitable EAs, but we're just playing around with some ideas to see if some of them work. I'm not a professional trader by any means and I don't have much experience in the market. I barely take one or two live trades a week, that's why I don't engage in any "Trading" discussion, and I stick to the programming part of it. So overall, I just do it for fun. I'm really interested in programming and automation, so I'm learning that as well and using this as a hobby. I just try to convert their ideas into EAs. But again, none of the EAs is profitable so far, although the first EA has better outcomes, but it's not perfect yet. So, I hope you get the idea behind this thread, we're just testing and exploring different ideas and how to automate them. But, nonetheless, those are very good remarks you have there and I think they could be implemented in future updates to either of the systems.

Thanks for the input and have a nice week!
  • #87
  • Aug 5, 2019 12:39am Aug 5, 2019 12:39am
I don't know if you've been following this thread or not, but Lukass, who started this thread had an idea. In Forex, to see if your idea makes money or not, you need to test it over a long period of time...


Of course I read the thread, that's why I made a comment:
obvious points:
to enter once the MACD goes negative or positive (longer Stoch above or below 50) is a pretty random choice; trend movements always begin earlier
to exit when the opposite occurs (goes pos after neg etc) is a losing strategy
your first one: to exit after next MACD-signal-cross makes a lot more sense (however way you look at it)

Stoch with three lines or even 5 ("normal" plus one/two etc for longer TFs) is difficult to decipher
why not replace the Stoch longer TF by say ZigZag-Arrows 30-5-3 (for trend direction) and use the Stoch/MACD current TF for entry/exit (Stoch-cross/MACD-cross)
+ SL entry in EA that takes ATR into account
+ Trailing (entry based on last price highs and lows or support or resistance) in EA if you don't want to or can't sit in front of the screen all day
testing that isn't based on actual trading routines won't give you results you can implement later on...
as I said - if you wanna code one that give you better results...
  • #88
  • Aug 5, 2019 2:24am Aug 5, 2019 2:24am
Quoting josi
TP: 10 Pips - DrDave it doesn't really make sense to fix your TP to 10 Pips (especially regardless of currency pair). a)Sometimes slippage will be too high to make trades worth your while if you limit yourself to 10 Pips. b) If a trend movement is under way you should participate as long as possible - there will be drawdowns in any system, that's why you need some big winners sometimes to make up for that.
Thanks for your input on a 10 pip TP. Without the full context of my decision, of course to someone with trading experience, 10 pips TP looks absurd for some of the very reasons that you presented. However, the main reason that I even posted was because I had several people with small accounts (less than $1000) that want to have a go at trading, but have had poor success at net positive returns. They seems to have either no system at all, have a very confusing set of indicators (some of which simply are redundant, giving the same signal), and/or do not stick with a plan. They also wanted to see some actual results, hence the Trade Explorer.

So, a really simple system is needed that will give high probability of net profit with few losses; few indicators, limited number of rules for entry/exit, the positions are flat before the end of the trading day. I asked each person how much he was willing to lose on a single trade, and got responses in pips, percentage of account, and dollar amount. After agreeing on looking at all three of these loss formats and understanding their relationships, pips were selected. There was a consensus that most had little time to sit at the screen to babysit trades, and that in the long run, they would like to see the annual return better than what they receive in their savings account (which was between 1%-5%). So, trading EURUSD with 0.01 lots for 10 pips TP, with realistically 200 trading days per year returns 20% on a $1000 account. Not everyone will trade the full 200 days. Not everyone will have an annual average of 10 pips per day. But even if they manage to average only 5 pips per day and trade only 100 days, that is 5% annual return--more than if the money sat in the a savings account, plus they have the opportunity to give trading a try to see if they really want to continue.

As for slippage, when you are in high momentum trades, the probability of undesirable slippage is extremely low.
Many have said, "The trend is your friend". But I say, "A trend with HIGH MOMENTUM is your BEST friend!"

As for riding a trend, of course! Absolutely ride a trend and have a plan for how to exit with a substantial portion of the move mirrored in your account! I did not include trend riding in the discussion yet becasue if you can't follow the simple plan and merely put a TP of 10 pips on your trade and walk away, it is unlikely that you can understand how to ride a trend. I alluded to trend riding this in this post

Everything in its own time. Did you learn to solve differential equations before learning algebra? Did you learn to work with logarithmic functions before you learned to manipulate fractions?

And as for needing some big winners to make up for drawdowns, that is another fallacy, although for most systems that I have seen long term results there are large drawdowns that need to be accounted for by some big winners. However, it depends on the metrics of your performance. You can do the math: You know, the win:loss ratio, amount at stake, and determine the win:loss ratio required to maintain break-even. With the right combination of high win rate and amount at stake, there does not need to be some big winners to "smooth out" big drawdowns, because big drawdowns are not inherent to a system with good performance metrics.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #89
  • Aug 5, 2019 2:43am Aug 5, 2019 2:43am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} And as for needing some big winners to make up for drawdowns, that is another fallacy, although for most systems that I have seen long term results there are large drawdowns that need to be accounted for by some big winners. However, it depends on the metrics of your performance. You can do the math: You know, the win:loss ratio, amount at stake, and determine the win:loss ratio required to maintain break-even. With the right combination of high win rate and amount at stake, there does not need to be some big winners to "smooth out" big...

Quite so!
Although your system does imply drawdowns if it runs 24h as trends only occur about one third of the time and the rest is somewhat random range territory
point being: instead of filtering out ranges (which could just be seen as accumulations/distributions preparing the next trend movement - the start of which often can't be predicted) one might simply think about avoiding being stopped out (hence SL xATR) while staying in the trade (hence trailing) etc.

I absolutely didn't mean to be critical, just suggest improvements to the EA, especially as version 2.0 was performing much worse than the first one (which did a pretty good job).
keep up the good work!
  • #90
  • Aug 5, 2019 3:25am Aug 5, 2019 3:25am
Quoting josi
obvious points: to enter once the MACD goes negative or positive (longer Stoch above or below 50) is a pretty random choice; trend movements always begin earlier
Of course the trend OFTEN (not ALWAYS) MOVEMENTS begin sooner than the stoch crossing 50. That signal was not some random choice at all. I investigated hundreds of trend changes manually and then looked to see if there were any indicator behaviors that consistently signaled correctly the trend direction. After I found some indicators that met this condition, I then went back and looked at each instance of the indicator giving a signal and evaluating if there was a trend follow through. In too many cases, there were enough negative outcomes with this signal compared to the positive outcomes that this signal was dropped from consideration. The stoch crossing 50 presented the best metrics with this manual evaluation, hence warranting mechanical testing. A large part of why it "works" is because it displays momentum (well, technically, it is not momentum but only velocity, but long-term incorrect usage leaves us stuck with it). And of course if the same indicator is used as an exit, then it is totally expected that a lot of the move will be given back, or even turn it from a winner to a loser, because for the indicator to cross in the opposite direction, strong momentum (therefore large price change quickly) against the position WILL occur. This is why I have stated previously that perhaps instead of trying to be always in a trade, have some profit protecting mechanism instead of giving back a lot of the unrealized gains.

And even though "trends begin earlier", so do mere retracements. Getting in earlier with an expectation that it is a trend change will too often get you in on a small retracement with little or no benefit and usually a lot of negative. This is why using a fast and slow stochastic gives a better signal of direction change; it shows momentum on 2 timeframes at once, and only signals a direction change if both show strong momentum. It is not enough to have them both reverse direction--there must be strong momentum in the new direction to have a reasonable chance that it is a "real" direction change.

I have been comparing the single MACD(12,26,9) with the 2-stochastics system and as I suspected, the MACD(12,26,9) has similar signals to the stoch32 for direction change, but, like the stoch32, has no reliable indication of retracement vs trend change, nor indication for whether or not a crossing will continue as desired or fail. The stoch(8,3,3) does add some of these refinements. That is why I suggested that perhaps using 2 MACDs would enable similar refinement.

Quote
Stoch with three lines or even 5 ("normal" plus one/two etc for longer TFs) is difficult to decipher
I don't find it difficult to have 3 lines to decipher in the stoch window. In addition, seeing the lines with their slopes as well as the distance between the lines gives valuable information that is lost when looking at arrows or numbers in place of the line crossings.

Quote
to exit after next MACD-signal-cross makes a lot more sense (however way you look at it) Stoch with three lines or even 5 ("normal" plus one/two etc for longer
Yes, an exit at the very next MACD X signal does make sense; I looked at that as an option. But the premise of this system was to stay in the market all the time with close-and-reverse when an opposite signal appears. We are trying to maintain that basic premise in the MACD system. I suggested using stochastics and not worrying about being always in the market. Hence, we are working in parallel on two systems. Probably some of the findings from one system will help improve the other as well.

Quote
as I said - if you wanna code one that give you better results...
I welcome anyone that is willing to code indicators or EA that will help move along development. Just run it by Lukass.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #91
  • Aug 5, 2019 3:54am Aug 5, 2019 3:54am
Quote: But the premise of this system was to stay in the market all the time with close-and-reverse when an opposite signal appears. We are trying to maintain that basic premise in the MACD system. I suggested using stochastics and not worrying about being always in the market. Hence, we are working in parallel on two systems. Probably some of the findings from one system will help improve the other as well.


All your points are valid, of course, and highly interesting.
Always in (i. e. Al Brooks) doesn't necessarily mean always invested -
while the market direction is changing (TL break, test of last high or low, triggering SLs etc) it may be clever not to be in the market until the "new" always-in direction is clear.
Sometimes this happens when 0 (MACD) or 50 (Stoch) is crossed, at other times this isn't the case (up - higher highs and higher lows; down - the opposite) and we stay on the "wrong" side of O or 50 for A LOT OF PIPS (or even most).
That's why I suggested you might be interested in looking at SwingMan's interpretation of RobinHood's strategy - especially his oscillator gives you a very good idea of when to be "always in" (and in which direction).
So, thanks for the illuminating explanations.
and remember: there's a reason I'm poor
  • #92
  • Aug 5, 2019 3:55am Aug 5, 2019 3:55am
Quoting josi
{quote} Quite so! Although your system does imply drawdowns if it runs 24h as trends only occur about one third of the time and the rest is somewhat random range territory point being: instead of filtering out ranges (which could just be seen as accumulations/distributions preparing the next trend movement - the start of which often can't be predicted) one might simply think about avoiding being stopped out (hence SL xATR) while staying in the trade (hence trailing) etc. I absolutely didn't mean to be critical, just suggest improvements to the EA,...
Relax. I found nothing that you said critical or offensive. You made many valid points.

I am still on the fence on the issue of staying in the trade during obvious consolidations vs running a trailing stop to try to ride it out. I currently lean to the side of simply going flat and waiting for the next confirmed direction signal to go back in. But some good backtesting results are needed to determine if one has merit over the other.

As far as trend movement being unpredictable, yes, unpredictable as to when it will BEGIN. However, AFTER it has started, if it is a "worthwhile" trend, there WILL be strong momentum. This momentum will be visible in price action only up to some unknown timeframe. This is why it is critical when doing manual trading to look at ALL timeframes (or to have indicators that let you see the equivalent of a higher timeframe on your current timeframe) to make decisions. If you are viewing H1 and get a sudden sharp increase in an indicator that shows strong momentum, you have an expectation that soon the same signal will display on the H4. What if the H4 indicator makes some weak change instead? Did you already enter the marke based on what the H1 displayed, or did you wait for CONFIRMATION from the H4 that the momentum is so strong that it carries through to the H4 before pulling the trigger? In my experience, looking at any single chart in isolation reduces the probability of long term success compared to evaluating additional charts. This is why I was able to take successful trades last week on the m5 chart; I looked at the m15, m5, and m1 to make my decision for where an entry would be for high probability of reaching my target. Many other people were not even trading that pair because they look at EXACTLY 1 chart ONLY, EVER! And that single chart was not moving to give any signals, even for add-on trades. I started way down on m5 when it retraced. Then when that trade finished, I was going to take entries on m15 retracement. But I had to skip m15--why? Because the retracements on m15 had such momentum that the retracement began on H1! But not strong enough begin a retracement on H2. So H1 became my signal chart.

So just because the start of a direction change is unpredictable does not mean that it is not worthwhile to enter it a little bit late by waiting for CONFIRMATION that there is high probability that it is a "worthwhile" trend.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #93
  • Aug 5, 2019 4:12am Aug 5, 2019 4:12am
Quoting josi
remember: there's a reason I'm poor
Quote
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
--Pogo--
.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #94
  • Aug 5, 2019 5:07am Aug 5, 2019 5:07am
Here is an example of the basic logic to put into the stoch EA.

GBPJPY m1
Example of using 2 stochastics with HA candles and Hull MA.

At the verticals, left-to-right:

purple: ALERT! Strong down momentum (stoch8) on this chart; bigger chart (stoch32) is losing its up momentum.

white: Sell. (If I were an EA, I would not sell because the yellow stoch has not crossed 50.) I am a human with discretionary power, so I see with stoch8 a retracement and stoch32 with strong down momentum.

red: sell. stoch32 crosses 50 and stoch8 with strong down momentum.

white: DANGER! Exit the sells. stoch32 failed to maintain down momentum! stoch8 has already lost down momentum, retraced, and back in up momentum.

green: BUY. stoch32 has strong up momentum crossing 50 with stoch8 already above 80.

dotted green: add-on buy1. stoch8 retraces while stoch 32 maintains strong up momentum.

dotted green: add-on buy2. stoch8 retraces while stoch 32 maintains strong up momentum.

red: exit buys. HA candle closed red below HMA. stoch8 crossed 80 down signaling loss of up momentum. stoch32 still has up momentum, but better to take indication from the faster indicators to exit than to wait for the lagging stoch8.

result: positive net pips!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 50 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #95
  • Aug 5, 2019 5:34am Aug 5, 2019 5:34am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 27 KB

The pip harvest has begun! 10 pips!
drawdown: less than 3 pips LOL

U Can Do IT!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 26 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #96
  • Aug 5, 2019 6:32am Aug 5, 2019 6:32am
Looks to me like a pretty risky continuation trade
either you are very good
or you like your risks
  • #97
  • Aug 5, 2019 6:49am Aug 5, 2019 6:49am
your post 94:

Comments to your analysis
First of all: general trend direction: up (I hope you agree); i. e. all short trades are countertrend which equals high risk

At the verticals, left-to-right:

purple: ALERT! Strong down momentum (stoch8) on this chart; bigger chart (stoch32) is losing its up momentum.

if we are in an upward trend-movement - if I take your logic seriously - you ought to get out (if that is what you want to do, instead of sitting out the pullback) when stoch8 crosses 50 downwards and reenter with buy-trades when stoch32 crosses 50 upwards

white: Sell. (If I were an EA, I would not sell because the yellow stoch has not crossed 50.) I am a human with discretionary power, so I see with stoch8 a retracement and stoch32 with strong down momentum.

red: sell. stoch32 crosses 50 and stoch8 with strong down momentum.

this would amount to a countertrend trade, so equals high risk

white: DANGER! Exit the sells. stoch32 failed to maintain down momentum! stoch8 has already lost down momentum, retraced, and back in up momentum.

green: BUY. stoch32 has strong up momentum crossing 50 with stoch8 already above 80.

dotted green: add-on buy1. stoch8 retraces while stoch 32 maintains strong up momentum.

dotted green: add-on buy2. stoch8 retraces while stoch 32 maintains strong up momentum.

red: exit buys. HA candle closed red below HMA. stoch8 crossed 80 down signaling loss of up momentum. stoch32 still has up momentum, but better to take indication from the faster indicators to exit than to wait for the lagging stoch8.

this - to me - seems to be an excellent exit rule; maybe it should be generally applied

result: positive net pips!
  • #98
  • Aug 5, 2019 7:05am Aug 5, 2019 7:05am
TO: The many lurkers on this forum
SUBJECT: Please help us to separate the wheat from the chaff

Hello lurkers! Great that you find at least some small merit in this forum. Maybe some of you lurk rather than contribute due to language barrier. Perhaps others because "I'm a newbie--I can't contribute". Or, "I don't want to sound stupid by opening my mouth on a subject that I don't know well, or that I know, but am doing poorly."

DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT! The secret that you missed: "I Can Do IT!"

Here is something that anyone can do that can help the effort. Open an H4 chart. Put on the Hull MA(12). Put on the Heiken-Ashi candles (default settings). Put on a stochastic(32,8,1); turn off the %k line; color the %d line yellow; from the Levels tab, add 50 level; from the Common tab, select Fixed minimum 0 and Fixed maximum 100.
Open the Data Window (Ctrl+D) Find in the data window Hull and Close.

Now find on the HA candles a bar that looks like it is the first one to close below the Hull MA and is red and put a red vertical on it. With your cursor over this bar, look at the data window for the values of Hull and Close. Is Close smaller than Hull? Great! If not, move your cursor to the next red candle that looks like it is below the HMA and repeat.

After you mark this candle with the red vertical, move your cursor back 1 candle and check to see if the Close value is GREATER than the Hull value. If not, move your red vertical to this bar. Now move your cursor 1 bar back again and check that one.

After you complete that, move forward on the chart until you see the very first white candle that looks like it closed above the Hull MA. Repeat the procedure above, except now you mark this candle with a green vertical, and when you complete the procedure, the candle with the green vertical will have Close greater than Hull. The candle to the left of it must have Close less than Hull.

Feel free to mark as many candles this way on H4 as you feel like. When you finish, switch to the H1 and scroll the H1 to your oldest vertical. Take a screen capture and save it. If all of verticals are not displayed in the window, just scroll forward to view more, and take another screen capture and save that.

After you have the screen captures, return to this forum and add a reply that includes your screen captures. That's it! You can make a big contribution by what seems like a little task!

Thanks in advance! I know that U Can Do IT!

Attached is the screen capture of the H4 chart with a red bar. You can see the Hull and Close values in the red rectangles.
Under that is the H1. You don't need to do any checking of H1; simply make the screen capture and upload.
Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 29 KB
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #99
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:44am Aug 5, 2019 9:44am
Quoting josi
your post 94: Comments to your analysis
Thank you for making a critical analysis! Questioning the logic of the decisions that have been made can lead to sound improvements.

In this discussion, I use "H1" and "H4", but the displayed chart is m1. It does not matter, because the same relationships hold for all the charts.

First of all, you must remember that the EA will, at least initially, be limited to "looking" at only the H1 timeframe. Therefore, there needs to be an indicator to show direction. The stoch32 (yellow line) has been selected for this job.

Secondly, these signals are under development. Some have already been removed and others added. I am certain that there are still more changes needed.
Quote
First of all: general trend direction: up (I hope you agree); i. e. all short trades are countertrend which equals high risk
When you look left on the image, you see stoch32 is indeed above 80 and has been riding there a long time--definitely an uptrend. We continue in a buy window until a signal that the buy window is closed. So no counter-trend selling would be possible.
Quote
if we are in an upward trend-movement - if I take your logic seriously - you ought to get out when stoch8 crosses 50 downwards and reenter with buy-trades when stoch32 crosses 50 upwards
The stoch8 dropping from >80 to 50 MIGHT be a signal to protect unrealized profits and be better than holding the trade to see if the stoch32 also falls creating a direction change, or if this is only a retracement--we don't have data to decide if that is worthwhile. It might also work as a signal to close the buy window, but I doubt that, because, for example, looking at the left in that image, I see stoch8 cross below 50 at least 2 times while stoch32 does not even come down to 80. Would it be productive to exit and then re-enter when stoch8 %k X %d back up vs just staying in until an additional signal at least closes the buy window? I am skeptical. (I am not saying that closing the buy window also means going flat, either, but maybe it should--not enough data to decide.)

I don't quite follow how you got to "reenter buy trades when stoch32 X 50 up" when you haven't addressed what to do between the moment stoch8 X 50 down until stoch32 X 50 up.
Quote
red: sell. stoch32 crosses 50 and stoch8 with strong down momentum.
this would amount to a countertrend trade, so equals high risk.
As the rules currently stand, no, this is not a counter-trend sell any more. It is the opening of a sell window, which also enters the first sell at that signal. It is a sell window signal because stoch8 has already gone below 20 (strong momentum) and now stoch32 has crossed below 50 with strong momentum. This gives high probability that the pullback has failed and that we fell into a downtrend. You can see that this logic is correct, because the stoch32 continued down to 20. If it would have turned back before reaching 50, or even gone flat before reaching 50, we would not be in a sell window.
But as you can see at the white vertical, the down momentum was lost and the sells exited. In this case, it would also close the sell window. So between the white vertical and green vertical, we are out of the market with no possibility to enter a trade.
Quote
red: exit buys. HA candle closed red below HMA. stoch8 crossed 80 down signaling loss of up momentum. stoch32 still has up momentum, but better to take indication from the faster indicators to exit than to wait for the lagging stoch8.
this - to me - seems to be an excellent exit rule; maybe it should be generally applied
I am aware that this does not align with the very first case at the purple line. However, at the moment, this is because I am thinking about the stoch32 CLEARLY showing me that the H4 also only made a pullback, by failing to cross below 20, rather than spending some time below. Hence, we go into a continuation up of the H4. And because this is a continuation leg, and, whether you buy into or not the "normal" movement of a leg is 1-2-3 and then it reverses, that last red vertical marks high probability that this H4 continuation leg has ended, so it is "time" to exit, because of the high probability of a trend reversal here, not another pullback.
If you go check that chart now, you will see that indeed a 1-2-3 down followed with a sell window opening. Then followed a 1-2-3 up-down-up with the leg 3 up continuation a failure (only made an equal top), so highly probable that we were in a consolidation due to some profit taking before the drop into the much bigger down trend.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #100
  • Aug 5, 2019 9:57am Aug 5, 2019 9:57am
Quoting josi
Looks to me like a pretty risky continuation trade either you are very good or you like your risks
LOL I have high confidence in my analysis. See this posting about that trade.
"It is highly probable that it will make a pullback and then a continuation up."

I sold there because the really big trend is down. Often these small charts fail to follow through on the attempted trend changes, so if it failed on this drop, I am in another probably big down move. However, if the down move is a mere pullback, as it "should" be by my system, then it will end and there will be a continuation leg up; that is exactly as I "predicted". Because the charts already SHOWED me the 2 most likely scenarios, I was monitoring the m5 and m1 to SHOW ME that the m15 pullback was probably complete and time to exit with whatever profit was there. And that is what I did. KA-CHING!
Taking candy from a baby...

By the way... post #98, Do you see on the m15 those white bars before the pullback? Now look at that same time interval on the m5. Do you see an obvious 1-2-3 up-down-up and then the m15 pullback kick-in?
UP: 1-2-3
DOWN: 1-2-3
UP: 1-2-3
DOWN: 1-2-3
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
0 traders viewing now