The Bucking Bronco

GM,
...mission complete for today.

Flow. Follow.

I couldn't resist .

Have a nice weekend.

Banked all (too early) and now just last men runnning to the BRN.

Banking, banking

Bon Jovi is a nice soundtrack while trading. Epic experience. And these two have some significance in this very moment.

[quote 4) my best finding: it´s ok to take event-risk on ecb decission day. but from now on, it´s a hard rule to close at the beginning of the press-conference.[/quote]


What I dont understand that as a trader why did u hold the position over the FED on wednesday, surely this is just gambling as no one knows what willbe said hence the sell off after the fed statement. Why did.nt u close the position just BEFORE the FED on wed in order to reduce this risk??? capital management is the key in this game, not just gambling which way ECB/FED presser/statement will send the markets

DAX D1. In the circle, the Market's Signal (in my interpretation and approach) and my inexcusable mistake: failure in adaptation.
Nothing "serious", if well managed.
It can happen.
The important thing is to know it: to know that it can happen and to know how to intervene to realign.
(As I did it in the end and for that reason I was well rewarded)
So, be prepared. If in doubt, as I was, stay out. ("Not having a position" is having a position!)
Be always prepared. Listen when Mother Market is saying to you that you are wrong.
Apologise, accept and obey.

Charts are so obvious in hindsight !

We are always confronting with two parts in our OODA loop:
>Our initial bias - which direction we think (for different reasons) the security will move.
>Adapting to the reality of which direction that security actually moves.

The first is easy.
The second is where we lose our money.

Try to imagine that you are about to go down a river.
Yes, you are going to do some Rafting.
You know that at a certain point you will surely meet some violent white water rapids.
You cannot say now, in anticipation of the event, what adjustments you need (and you will) make in the future to stay afloat.
You only know that you have the skills to adapt to whatever actually happens.
The same is true with discretionary trading.

Hope I made myself clear. This point is my central, crucial point in my whole narration.

Deltaone gave his reasons... I'm just speaking in pure Theory continuing my personal exposition.

This is the biggest mistake that discretionary traders make.
They don't transition from bias to adaptation.
They hold on to their bias (for different reason) and try to force their hopes and wishes.
It doesn't work that way: rigidity kills.

The first loss in itself is the sign that you are (probably) on the wrong side of the move.
Is question of seconds while trading!
What could have been a (perfectly controllable) small loss is about to turn into a nightmare.
In a raft you adapt to protect your life.
In trading you adapt to protect your money.

Like Gann teaches... I trade with a SUPER TIGHT Stop and I try to be completely flexible.

Yes. This is why I kill myself trying to learn how to read a chart as best as possible.
Think about that: Market always gives alerts and signals.
She talks, talks and talks.
In her language!
We have the problem that we don't understand her words. Not the contrary!
We must learn her language. That's the job.
And it is possible. Only that (for several reasons, with our human weakness) we are simply a band of miserables in front of her Force.

Yes. Learning Market's Language is possibile.
This is the message of the Forefathers of Trading.
And this is what I tried to highlight with my poor and humble pages.
I say it again:
> All is on the chart.
> Market doesn't lie.
> Nothing is random in the Market.
> All the problem is in the Human Factor. We are our enemy.

FULL STOP.

"Beware of no man more than of yourself. We carry our worst enemies within us." - C.H. Spurgeon

How true...
Very often we are our own worst enemy.
As we foolishly build stumbling blocks on the path that leads to success and happiness.

1550. Wind, Forest, Fire, Mountain.
The banner carried by the troops of the general Takeda Shingen (and of Takeda Clan) in the feudal Japan of Samurai armies
to connote that success in battle required knowing when to be:

as swift/quick as the wind;
as patient/silent/quiet as a forest;
as aggressive/raiding/plundering as a fire,
as unshakable/immovable as a mountain.

"Fu Rin Ka Zan" is a saying from the Chinese master of the art of war, Sun Tzu (literally it just says "wind, forest, fire, mountain"),
reflecting the very high standards that warriors held themselves to.
And Furin Kazan was the name of that ancient banner.

Yes, trading has a long history.
Again from Japan.

1755. Before America was even a nation...
Munehisa Homma wrote in his "The Fountain of Gold" this incredible sentence:
"To learn about the market ask the market— only then can you become a detestable market demon."

"What a great expression..." said Steve Nison, "who wouldn't enjoy to be a detestable market demon?"