Trading with Volume and maybe a horizontal line

Been a crazy two days. I got over confident.

Luckily I was able to get out of AUD/CAD for a 2 pip loss.



AUD/JPY has been taking care of me. That rally in Asia I thought the position was done for so I broke even on my trades, but there wasn't any real stop loss hunting, then I slammed it as price was coming off, no way the pair is bullish as it came off that today. AUD/JPY is going to get slammed down tomorrow.

Quick short on AUD/CAD.

It was hard to see, but there is no buying pressure (wide spread up bar on low volume) the next bar is a failed test.

This current bar I shorted failed miserably trying to break the previous high.

This AUD/JPY chart is crazy.. all you have to do is press the sell button.

Woke up to some money, I wasn't expecting this today.

I think I'm going to take next week off.

Hard walking away from easy money.

This wide spread up bar is no buying pressure, after such a big down move. For this to be bullish you would expect volume to be on higher volume (but not excessive volume, excessive volume on an up bar is supply).

Should be an easy 20 pips to the downside.

This current bar is a nice example of healthy volume to the upside. It looks very much like there are buyers here, note the wide body and compare the volume to the previous bar, its high but its not excessively higher than the previous bar. I wouldn't go long here, but I would be holding on to any longs if I had any.

Ok, I'm done now.

Well done Anotan

Easy EUR/CAD long.

On July 31st there is a potential selling climax. The thing about climatic bars is you have to wait to see if the volume in that bar is actually position taking or profit taking. If the volume is just profit taking then there is a chance that the professionals aren't going to support price and price can go whichever way.

On August 1st we get our confirmation that July 31st is indeed position taking, on the 1st we see absorption volume. Absorption volume marks through a previous high and shows that the professionals are bullish and willing to absorb any sellers.

See about taking this up to 1.4800, maybe 1.4900 will let PA decide.

Test in a rising market, EUR/CAD has been rising so fast its been hard to add more positions.

Last week we were printing money on AUD/CAD and AUD/JPY with its aggressive trend, this week shouldn't be any different with EUR/CAD.

I seriously hope I'm not the only one who is raping this pair today.

We'll easily see 1.4900 today, maybe even 1.4950.

Raping this pair ?????? Not necessary.

I did get a little over zealous with the buying, but EUR/CAD did give me exactly what I wanted.. A pullback for more opportunities to load up.



Take a look at the Weekly, it was accumulated for 3-4 weeks and then last week we saw a very bullish squat bar. I will admit its not a great squat bar because the range of the bar is wider than it should be, but I don't want to call it a shakeout because the bar didn't make a new low to "shake out" any positions. Either way its a bullish bar.

I'm going to pass on this trade because I want to leave my margin open for EUR/CAD.

But here is an easy easy trade.

Most of my original positions were stopped out, I should have moved the stops down a bit but that doesn't matter now that I'm properly loaded up.

I went ahead and TP'd the top two positions on this H1 chart, they were sloppy entries and I could have done a lot better.



EUR/CAD Weekly chart, very bullish PA in the white box, amazing opportunity for a some long term pips. A lot of currencies have been in a sideways movement with choppy PA (just look at this weekly chart most of 2019 was sideways), with how aggressive the trends have been over the past few weeks I'm leaning towards that we are shifting from a sideways market to a trending market. All I can say is be very careful with counter trend trades.

I've been a little quiet, just doing my share of sitting back and going through some older members post on volume.

Today I've read a few posts of people enthusiastically trading the weekend gap, which got me thinking about a trade I made in 2017.

I was trading VSA and I shorted GBP/JPY on April 21st. At one point in the trade I was up almost 70 pips in profit, when the day closed I think I had 40 or 50 pips of profit locked in with my stop at BE, I was feeling pretty good about the trade that weekend. Sunday came around and GBP/JPY had gaped up 220 pips from Friday's close and my break even stop loss triggered and I took a loss of just under 200 pips, if I remember correctly it was over 20% of my account.

I've gotten pretty loose about holding trades over the weekend, but really I need to be more vigilant about closing trades by the end of day Friday.



Everyone remembers this guy, Shanghai Market crashed on a holiday weekend, brokers were closed and not even a stop loss could have saved him.

EURNZD short.

Bar A - An up thrust back into an old top.

Bar B - Almost like a shake out bar, I don't want to call it a shakeout bar because the market isn't strong and this bar isn't trying to shake people out of their trades. I think this bar is trying to lure people into a long trade.

Bar C- This bar completely collapses on any progress made from bar B, with the old top and the up thrust on bar A, price isn't likely to go up from here.

Looking for a quick trade here.

A bit of stopping volume came in on (a) then we saw a test (b), the volume doesn't really stand out on (b) but in hindsight it's pretty easy to tell price was testing the stopping volume on (a). There is a problem though on (c), normally I don't like to see high volume back in to an area of buying and bar (c) is high volume back into the area of previous buying on (a). But bar (d) you can see how volume drastically dropped off from the previous two bars which was a sign that there was no more supply left to which price rallied.

Price did come off quickly after the small rally after (d), so I might be playing with fire by holding the trade. We'll see.