The Bucking Bronco

146 ready to jump out.
Tighten my stop.

Out

137 significant level
If they are going to begin to "gamble" and "cheat" I'll call it a day without thinking twice.

I don't like this... trailing stop on!

Banking @175 while writing

Banked some on DOW as well (More nervous than DAX). I'm really enjoying my day.

Banking of DAX and scaling out... 166 is rejecting again.

153. Ready to jump out

Now this double test of 153 means something.

Banked. IMMEDIATELY on top. Quick finger. Nice morning. CU.

firstly:

it´s not over till it´s over. maybe this day will end my 160 indices long exposure with big red news ahead (if dax = 12.000). maybe not. twt. so i am not trying to hold, i´m still holding.

secondly:

my scenario is still intact since dax is well above 200d-line and fed and ecb are in expansive unorthodox policy mode. so i´m not sure wether this is an ego-play or not. so far, it´s not a loss. until position is closed in red.

thirdly:

it´s true that i experience a huge drawdown in terms of € amount. it´s true that one can look at it as a non necesarry floating loss since i could have closed position in green at the beginning of draghis speech. in comparison to total capital, it´s still manageable. it´s true that i could have closed with moderate minus, freeing capital for other trades. it´s true that total asset-turnover capital is very low since i´ve opened that position. but since we have still holidays here, that´s ok for me. i´m relatively sure that i would have closed on a normal business day.

conclusions:

ad 1) i violated my maximum loss budget rule. even if this one will end in red, picture is unclear because of past high profitable outcomes over the past five years.

ad 2) i traded what i thought, not what i saw. since i do so from time till time due to scenario analysis with good outcome over the years on average (and it´s no hard rule, more a heuristic), picture is not clear.

ad 3) maybe i should not trade on holidays. one thing is for sure: i should close a position earlier, esp. when an open position which had already experienced a huge drawdown comes back to green - independently from scenario analysis.

ad 4) my best finding: it´s ok to take event-risk on ecb decission day. but from now on, it´s a hard rule to close at the beginning of the press-conference.

This is exactly what I meant...
Thanks for your lucid post. Thanks for your accurate analysis. You are a "powerful" trader.
A great point of reference in the community.
As I said I have learnt a lot from you!
Always my respect and I can't wait for you to come back to trade again together.

thx for the kind words. monday at the latest - maybe later this day, depending on the impact of fed decission to my position

12.181,40 significant level. Careful, now.

i like your levels, even if i can´t see many of them in advance. soon, if not already, dax will be in the hand of the yank/dow traders.

I take it you intend to hold the position over the FED? Surely this is just gambling as no one has any idea what the FED will do /say before the decision? Probably best to have NO position/be flat before the announcement rather like the ECB presser/decision etc.... capital preservation is the key etc..

Banking some, immediately. Let's see what happens.
Stop +2

Hit...