Trading against the herd | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is Trading Against An FX Dealer A Crap Shoot? 5 replies

Who are you trading against? 2 replies

do big banks collect good trading systems and then move against us? 6 replies

Trading Against the Mass Strategy 8 replies

Trading against the majority 44 replies

Attachments: Trading against the herd
Exit Attachments

Trading against the herd

  • #221
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:16pm Jul 27, 2019 10:16pm
It has probably been discussed before but you have seen the loser stats that I think the EUR zone brokers publish? There is quite a considerable range of that % betwwn brokers. It was a long time ago that I looked at one but I think there was a 20 point difference between the high n the low in the range...don't quote me tho. My point is, depending on source of data, this trade % data could differ from each broker. You guys really like following an indicator that could be off by 20%? Yes, I know that FF and MFB average out a whole range of data but still off by some %.



Oanda for example is more of a manual trading broker than an automated one. You don't go to Oanda because they have this great platform called MT4 that no one else has. There are certain ways of trading that is best done at Oanda. Mostly longer term strategies end up there. Their stats are indicative of longer term traders. Who is known for quick turn over in FX industry? Maybe ECN brokers with tight spreads? Their data would not be same as Oanda's.


I suppose the mirror image extremes are so far from each other that you could be off a few %'s.
  • #222
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:20pm Jul 27, 2019 10:20pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Maybe the institutionals or whoever is assumed to be "not the herd' is more or less in the same position as the traders from the retail end whose data is available. Just because they are losers and we can see that, it doesn't mean anyone else is any smarter. So, no one is really smart or dumb here to be termed the herd or the leaders. So in essence, we are using that ratio as an indicator and we are going against it. Like 90% and up, do the opposite. It has 9 out of 10 success rate according to someone who commented above. This is just another...
You are making this into something it's not.

It's about data.

The data suggests it is profitable to go against the FF herd majority when the sentiment changes.

I couldn't give a toss if they are smarter than institution or not.

It's about the data.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #223
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:26pm Jul 27, 2019 10:26pm
Quoting OutThere
It has probably been discussed before but you have seen the loser stats that I think the EUR zone brokers publish? There is quite a considerable range of that % betwwn brokers. It was a long time ago that I looked at one but I think there was a 20 point difference between the high n the low in the range...don't quote me tho. My point is, depending on source of data, this trade % data could differ from each other. You guys really like following an indicator that could be off by 20%? Oanda for example is more of a manual trading broker than an automated...
This is getting annoying.. Sorry

FF and myfxbook take there data from traders. These traders use different brokers. Its a mix. The data isnt taken from one broker or a couple of brokers.

Id say most traders use either ICMarkets or Oanda - They have millions of retail traders between them. If I only had them two broker stats I'd be happy and trade against the stats of the herd.

To prove a point On Monday afternoon. Start of New York session as most traders will be on FF then and the GBPUSD is going down turn to the GBPUSD thread. You will read post after post of them buying. It quite comical.
Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
  • #224
  • Edited Jul 28, 2019 12:12am Jul 27, 2019 10:32pm | Edited Jul 28, 2019 12:12am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Trade against the FF retail herd and make money. The rules are incredibly simple: As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bulls (on a daily count basis) goes above 50%, start shorting. As soon as the percentage of GBPUSD bears goes above 50%, close out shorts and go long.
This thread is about FF retail herd data.

You guys got this right?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #225
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:09am Jul 28, 2019 3:09am
Quoting ForexCraft
{quote} This is getting annoying.. Sorry FF and myfxbook take there data from traders. These traders use different brokers. Its a mix. The data isnt taken from one broker or a couple of brokers. Id say most traders use either ICMarkets or Oanda - They have millions of retail traders between them. If I only had them two broker stats I'd be happy and trade against the stats of the herd. To prove a point On Monday afternoon. Start of New York session as most traders will be on FF then and the GBPUSD is going down turn to the GBPUSD thread. You will...
Hi fxcraft.
I welcome data from myfxbook, as I have pointed out to Neil and others previously..

I was getting annoyed how the discussion was being derailed by personalizing the matter about the herd, if you know what I mean

I appreciate your input.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #226
  • Jul 28, 2019 8:25am Jul 28, 2019 8:25am
OutThere, Listen to I'll-b-back & ForexCraft & forget the RSI, MA"S & any other indicator available on MT4. They are not needed for this method. Only the DATA counts. I have been in the trading business many years & have never seen a more simple way (method) of trading. It is pure DATA driven. This method was shared with me several years ago by a trader friend, but I was to busy developing my own method which I finally did. After Il'll-b-back started this thread my interest was revised & now its part of my trading. Actually considering making this the only way I trade. It is simple, concise & nothing but the data needed. What you have been sharing has merit & I am not disregarding what your saying, but just focus on the data & forget the indicators & OB & OS. If an indicator could be coded for this I see it having value, but its not needed. Having said that I would probably use it if one is developed & shared. Try only focusing on the data for one week in demo & see what your results are. Thank you I'll-b-back & ForexCraft & anyone else sharing on this thread. Just my views. Best trades to all.
  • #227
  • Jul 28, 2019 12:44pm Jul 28, 2019 12:44pm
I'll-b-back.... In post #184 I stated this thread would probably never gain much traction, but I may just be wrong as I am a lot of times, but one thing I am not wrong about is the value of what you have exposed. Just took a peek at a trader friends trading statement from only trading this method using the sentiment data & it is unreal. Wish I had taken his advise 2 years ago when he shared what he was doing. There is nothing that I can see to make this method better such as would be the case when trying to trade with an MQ4 or MQ5 indicator or an EA. That's the beauty of this.......find the data & trade accordingly. No matter how many traders are made aware of this, it will never change the outcome for those using it. Take a look at the Turtle Traders & what Richard Dennis tried to do with those traders. Some (a few) made it work for them & many failed. Anyway enough ranting. Peace out....

"It Is Better To Light A Candle Than To Curse The Darkness" That you have done I'll-b-back.


_____________________________________________ ___________________________
  • #228
  • Edited 1:58pm Jul 28, 2019 1:26pm | Edited 1:58pm
I downloaded myfxbook's daily outlook data for GBPUSD. It allowed me to download outlook data back to 19/10/2015.
I preformed a back test on daily candles with Neil's RSI(2) / 80% outlook strategy and here is the result.
Money management:
Trade consists of 2 positions risking 1% each.
1st TP - ATR(14), SL - 1.5*ATR(14)
2nd TP - N/A, SL - 1.5*ATR(14), BE on first position close and trailing afterwards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 86 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx gbpusd.xlsx   48 KB | 291 downloads
  • #229
  • Jul 28, 2019 2:57pm Jul 28, 2019 2:57pm
EURUSD - same logic as above
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 104 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx eurusd.xlsx   60 KB | 352 downloads
  • #230
  • Jul 28, 2019 3:05pm Jul 28, 2019 3:05pm
We must respect I'll-b-backs wishes though and keep the thread to the GBPUSD and Forex Factory SSI of which is on the main page.

I will stop posting here as its going off topic to what he is researching and I havnt helped the matter.

P.S Mcquak please post them on the other thread if you want to ;-) - one more P.S - mcquak the secret is linebreak 1 charts with the RSI2... shhhhhhhhhh ;-)
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #231
  • Edited 3:37pm Jul 28, 2019 3:17pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting neilsdigest
We must respect I'll-b-backs wishes though and keep the thread to the GBPUSD and Forex Factory SSI of which is on the main page. I will stop posting here as its going off topic to what he is researching and I havnt helped the matter. P.S Mcquak please post them on the other thread if you want to ;-) - one more P.S - mcquak the secret is linebreak 1 charts with the RSI2... shhhhhhhhhh ;-)
LINE BREAK - how could I forget. Yeah, it'll make significantly different result.
I'll post to the other thread once I have time to do backtest with line break.

I'll-b-back -> my sincere apologies for disrupting your thread.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • #232
  • Jul 28, 2019 6:12pm Jul 28, 2019 6:12pm
Quoting mcquak
{quote} LINE BREAK - how could I forget. Yeah, it'll make significantly different result. I'll post to the other thread once I have time to do backtest with line break. I'll-b-back -> my sincere apologies for disrupting your thread. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dude, It's totally cool.
As I've said a few times now, I welcome other data sources, as long as the discussion stays focussed on outcomes.

Please continue...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #233
  • Jul 28, 2019 8:18pm Jul 28, 2019 8:18pm
An example on when to wait for the ideal opportunity when using this method. Although retail is heavily short on USDJPY, price has dropped kinda hard.

@ill-b-back, apologies for deviating from the original pair (GBPUSD) but I just wanted to share my thoughts and help others.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 17 KB
Attached Image
  • #234
  • Jul 28, 2019 8:40pm Jul 28, 2019 8:40pm
Quoting frostypips
An example on when to wait for the ideal opportunity when using this method. Although retail is heavily short on USDJPY, price has dropped kinda hard. @ill-b-back, apologies for deviating from the original pair (GBPUSD) but I just wanted to share my thoughts and help others. {image} {image}
Currency strengh. The JPY is strong and it's in the Asian session. If the JPY is very strong in the Asian session then trade with the flow. Look at the GBPJPY since open.

The USDJPY only has a trend reading of 68% ooops 62% down (out of 100%) - Its a weak trend. I wouldnt trade it until it has a reading of 100% against what the SSI says.

The GBPJPY has a trend reading of 100% down

Like you say just don't blindly trade with the SSI. Come up with your own method of when to trade with it.. Like the GBPUSD, it is in a big down trend but will go up some days (with the retail traders) before turning back again.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #235
  • Jul 29, 2019 7:47am Jul 29, 2019 7:47am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Currency strengh. The JPY is strong and it's in the Asian session. If the JPY is very strong in the Asian session then trade with the flow. Look at the GBPJPY since open. The USDJPY only has a trend reading of 68% ooops 62% down (out of 100%) - Its a weak trend. I wouldnt trade it until it has a reading of 100% against what the SSI says. The GBPJPY has a trend reading of 100% down Like you say just don't blindly trade with the SSI. Come up with your own method of when to trade with it.. Like the GBPUSD, it is in a big down trend but will...
Agree, there are other factors, ie: current USD strength / GBP weakness + sentiment Data, +poor political relationship related news + PA = short GBP/USD.
As Peter Thiel says in his book 'Zero to One", “The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself."
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #236
  • Jul 30, 2019 11:20pm Jul 30, 2019 11:20pm
Quoting ForexCraft
{quote} Why is that a problem? It called counter trending. Davit's trades are mostly with the herd.
Exactly right. And for that reason Davit-and-the-pivoteers are currently drowning in draw down just like the SSI would show!
  • #237
  • Aug 2, 2019 9:25pm Aug 2, 2019 9:25pm
GBPUSD bulls at 68% on FF.

Any shorts taken from around May 7th when the herd sentiment turned bullish, would still be in play...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #238
  • Aug 6, 2019 11:43am Aug 6, 2019 11:43am
Quoting ForexCraft
{quote} It's one of those magically questions.. If every time the rsi says a currency is overbought/oversold and we traded of that info we would be broke. Account gone. In your chart the GBPUSD was oversold for the last nine hours. What would of happened if you brought it as soon as it went overbought like those in the GBPUSD thread did? Plus it might be oversold on the H1 but not on the daily/weekly/monthly. Like any indicator. RSI OBOS. Moving average cross etc, etc. They work sometimes. But you can't trade with them and keep your account. I re-coded...

Where do i find this indicator, the one circled, Up and down. thanks!
  • #239
  • Aug 9, 2019 6:33pm Aug 9, 2019 6:33pm
GU finishes the week with 63% long.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #240
  • Aug 13, 2019 5:04am Aug 13, 2019 5:04am
it always pays to be contrarian. do it with price action+trend following and good money management then watch your account grow while the herds get slaughtered
my trade of the month!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade of the week.JPG Size: 98 KB
Attached Image
Be fearful when others are greedy
1 trader viewing now