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Trading against the herd

  • #201
  • Jul 27, 2019 6:35pm Jul 27, 2019 6:35pm
mcquak, if this is meant to address my comments, I didn't suggest that buy n sells are matched and retail traders are running the market movements. Think of the retail traders as the RSI line. Many say RSI is a myth. Many say it wasn't designed for FX but if you followed it, it is close to going against crowd mentality. There maybe small differences aka divergences and anomalies but as they say That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.
  • #202
  • Jul 27, 2019 7:54pm Jul 27, 2019 7:54pm
Quoting ForexCraft
{quote} I would answer in a better post but time is limited right now... If you look at the stats on either the front page of FF or myfxbook outlook you will see that the herd trade against the trend. They look for tops and bottoms. I was watching the GBPUSD thread on Friday afternoon.. Price was falling and in said thread they kept buying. All I read was buying here, buying there and the price kept falling. They have been buying the GBP/USD since May 7th. Oh I should say there have been more buyers then sellers (FF stats and myfxbook stats) in...
So much for "random trades" lol

Yes, it indeed works.
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  • #203
  • Jul 27, 2019 7:55pm Jul 27, 2019 7:55pm
Quoting OutThere
I don't know how to convey my point properly but I will try. Lets start with a buy scenario. For whatever reason, the buyers start buying and they are in minority. Slowly, the price start going up because of the new demand. More buyers come in and the price keeps going up and up. At some point, seeing how much the price has moved up, the buying shrinks but still, a ton of traders are holding longs. Then the trend reverses and starts coming down. At this point, we look at the stats and see that the majority of traders are long and seeing the strong...
OutThere, Good post. We are trading against the herd. FoxCraft @ post #200 is nailing it. Its really simple. Trade the data & don't worry about if its trading against supply & demand. The 2nd line of FoxCraft's post tells all we need to know. Look at the stats (data) & trade accordingly. The last line of post #200 is spot on. Overbought & oversold matters not. When you are trading against the herd using the data & the numbers start to turn opposite of your current trade direction, then its time to take profits & get out. Price & the Herd Sentiment is constantly changing & we have to trade according to that change. NO INDICATORS NEEDED...Unless one could be coded to bring all the data together & apply it to the chart. Really not needed, but if it could be done ok too. This is simple if followed correctly according to the data. Just my views & nothing more. Wishing all good trades.
  • #204
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:02pm Jul 27, 2019 8:02pm
Quoting frostypips
{quote} So much for "random trades" lol Yes, it indeed works. {image} {image}
Whatever method retail are taught, in the end all end up doing the same thing. They are still buying AUDUSD lol
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  • #205
  • Edited 8:18pm Jul 27, 2019 8:03pm | Edited 8:18pm
Quoting OutThere
I don't know how to convey my point properly but I will try. Lets start with a buy scenario. For whatever reason, the buyers start buying and they are in minority. Slowly, the price start going up because of the new demand. More buyers come in and the price keeps going up and up. At some point, seeing how much the price has moved up, the buying shrinks but still, a ton of traders are holding longs. Then the trend reverses and starts coming down. At this point, we look at the stats and see that the majority of traders are long and seeing the strong...
Take a look at the win/loss ratio of the stats, it doesn't suggest the herd match supply and demand.
I cannot remember a single time over the years where I have seen the herd majority having a better win/loss ratio than the minority.

Maybe once or twice...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #206
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:28pm Jul 27, 2019 8:28pm
Quoting acetrader
{quote} OutThere, Good post. We are trading against the herd. FoxCraft @ post #200 is nailing it. Its really simple. Trade the data & don't worry about if its trading against supply & demand. The 2nd line of FoxCraft's post tells all we need to know. Look at the stats (data) & trade accordingly. The last line of post #200 is spot on. Overbought & oversold matters not. When you are trading against the herd using the data & the numbers start to turn opposite of your current trade direction, then its time to take profits & get out. Price & the Herd...
I think everyone is enjoying catching the herd at their stupidity and it feels good to have figured out the herd and not be one of them. It could also be that the herd's behavior matches some indicators and we know indicators crunch numbers and relations and turn them into graphs and such so we can see that data on the chart. So there are hard figures somewhere that correspond to the crowd's behavior without drawing their info from the crowd.

Okay, I get you. No matter what is happening, just do this and make money and who care what the basis of it is. Probably right too.

Now question: (I haven't read the whole thread) Is there sentiment data for the institutional traders? I see that after Oanda came up with sentiment data, a bunch of other brokers are doing same. Some of them show you the data if you sign up with them. So, I doubt that whatever platform the institutional traders use, isn't going to show the data. Or maybe they do. Is there such a thing? If so and if we just assume banks and trading firms know what they are doing, then their data should be opposite to institutional traders?


Last line that says there is no overbought/sold? I have attached a screenshot of RSI. I have put lines where the OBOS are. I understand that the price could have gone much much lower and higher than when RSI turned but in retrospect, those lines show when GBP was os/ob. You can argue that RSI isn't good at showing those levels in real time because it is an oscillator but that doesn't mean os/ob doesn't exist.
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  • #207
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:40pm Jul 27, 2019 8:40pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Take a look at the win/loss ratio of the stats, it doesn't suggest the herd match supply and demand. I cannot remember a single time over the years where I have seen the herd majority having a better win/loss ratio than the minority. Maybe once or twice...
the herd majority having a better win/loss ratio than the minority.


If you could make it clear please where do you get data from herd majority so it can be compared against data from herd minority (where from also?). Obviously you have seen this data for years. I like to see what you see.
  • #208
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:42pm Jul 27, 2019 8:42pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} the herd majority having a better win/loss ratio than the minority. If you could make it clear please where do you get data from herd majority so it can be compared against data from herd minority (where from also?). Obviously you have seen this data for years. I like to see what you see.
Not difficult at all
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  • #209
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:46pm Jul 27, 2019 8:46pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} the herd majority having a better win/loss ratio than the minority. If you could make it clear please where do you get data from herd majority so it can be compared against data from herd minority (where from also?). Obviously you have seen this data for years. I like to see what you see.
See above.
I am getting my data from FF trades page.
I am focussing on GBPUSD pair.

The data is available on the "trades" page.
Click on the pair you want to analyse to get the detail shown above.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #210
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:51pm Jul 27, 2019 8:51pm
Quoting frostypips
{quote} Not difficult at all {image}
I am assuming that is the herd's trades. Where is the bank and professional trading firm data to compare this with?
  • #211
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:54pm Jul 27, 2019 8:54pm
sometimes the herd get it right. that's the problem.
  • #212
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:59pm Jul 27, 2019 8:59pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I think everyone is enjoying catching the herd at their stupidity and it feels good to have figured out the herd and not be one of them. It could also be that the herd's behavior matches some indicators and we know indicators crunch numbers and relations and turn them into graphs and such so we can see that data on the chart. }
It's one of those magically questions.. If every time the rsi says a currency is overbought/oversold and we traded of that info we would be broke. Account gone.
In your chart the GBPUSD was oversold for the last nine hours. What would of happened if you brought it as soon as it went overbought like those in the GBPUSD thread did?

Plus it might be oversold on the H1 but not on the daily/weekly/monthly.

Like any indicator. RSI OBOS. Moving average cross etc, etc. They work sometimes. But you can't trade with them and keep your account.

I re-coded one of FerruFX indicators as I found the mql4 for it. All it uses is data from the 3 and 9 moving average from the monthly, weekly, daily and H4 added together to show the true trend.

9 times out of ten if I get a strong buy (100%) the herd are strongly selling.

Here is an example of the trend and data from FF and myfxbook.. I will post more examples but will have to install another MT4 as I don't want to show my trades. For some reason I never traded the EURGBP.

Some Friday pairs that were at 100%

EURUSD - GBPUSD- AUDUSD - GBPJPY - EURCAD - GBPCAD - AUDNZD - All started or went to 100% down trend on Friday 26th July
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Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
  • #213
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:02pm Jul 27, 2019 9:02pm
Quoting venividivici
sometimes the herd get it right. that's the problem.
Why is that a problem? It called counter trending. Davit's trades are mostly with the herd.
Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
  • #214
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:27pm Jul 27, 2019 9:27pm
Quoting ForexCraft
{quote} It's one of those magically questions.. If every time the rsi says a currency is overbought/oversold and we traded of that info we would be broke. Account gone. In your chart the GBPUSD was oversold for the last nine hours. What would of happened if you brought it as soon as it went overbought like those in the GBPUSD thread did? Plus it might be oversold on the H1 but not on the daily/weekly/monthly. Like any indicator. RSI OBOS. Moving average cross etc, etc. They work sometimes. But you can't trade with them and keep your account. I re-coded...
I don't really want to make this an RSI vs counter herd trading but to answer your question: What would of happened if you brought it as soon as it went overbought......The answer is the same as if I used any other indicator and it made me take the wrong decision. People have already stated that the herd is right sometimes. What would you do if you enter against the herd and they turn out to be right?

I'm really trying not argue but I think for the lack of a real on-chart indicator, we are going to stand alone herd position data to make decisions BUT what if there is an already existing indicator that draws plots that are opposite and almost mirror image of the price chart itself? Maybe an indicator that overlays a price chart on top of chart except that they would both be the same and be able to mirror the overly. It would be comical if the herd majority looks at the price charts and does the mirror image reaction to it. If they do, then the same chart overlaid in mirror is your answer.

As for RSI being made of MA's. Yes possible. I have heard all indys are based on MA's one way or another. I think indys are like songs. They use pretty much the same notes and rhythms but they are slightly different and some other elements added make them sound drastically different. Someone was questioning the validity of the random formula the other day too. I don't know where formula for RSI or random functions come from but I am not about to reinvent the wheel.

And I don't know how they decided their trend direction decision in your screenshot but I think you consider it accurate. It'd be cool if you posted the same screenshot a few days from now to see what will have happened and how the % changed.
  • #215
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:41pm Jul 27, 2019 9:41pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} I am assuming that is the herd's trades. Where is the bank and professional trading firm data to compare this with?
What would be the point of that info?
We are not here to compare herd vs prof trading, but to explore potential profitability by trading against the herd when published FF retail sentiment changes.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #216
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:50pm Jul 27, 2019 9:50pm
On page 2 of this thread, I have charts showing what it would look like trading with and against the herd data.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #217
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:52pm Jul 27, 2019 9:52pm
Quoting venividivici
sometimes the herd get it right. that's the problem.
That's what money management is for.
It's not a problem.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #218
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:04pm Jul 27, 2019 10:04pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} What would be the point of that info? We are not here to compare herd vs prof trading, but to explore potential profitability by trading against the herd when published FF retail sentiment changes.
Maybe the institutionals or whoever is assumed to be "not the herd' is more or less in the same position as the traders from the retail end whose data is available. Just because they are losers and we can see that, it doesn't mean anyone else is any smarter. So, no one is really smart or dumb here to be termed the herd or the leaders. So in essence, we are using that ratio as an indicator and we are going against it. Like 90% and up, do the opposite. It has 9 out of 10 success rate according to someone who commented above. This is just another OBOS indicator. Nothing wrong with that except the usual. Thanks.
  • #219
  • Edited Jul 28, 2019 12:37am Jul 27, 2019 10:07pm | Edited Jul 28, 2019 12:37am
Here is just an example on how the data works.. Not the GBPUSD SSI data this thread is about but shows you clearly the main trend and retail traders data (The herd)

An example of a pair you wouldn't trade. See how the data matches or nearly.... Its a great method to show which pairs you should be trading..

Tomorrow I will post the main trend indicator and you will see how it mirror images the SSI from either FF or Myfxbook.
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Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
  • #220
  • Jul 27, 2019 10:10pm Jul 27, 2019 10:10pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Maybe the institutionals or whoever is assumed to be "not the herd' is more or less in the same position as the traders from the retail end whose data is available. Just because they are losers and we can see that, it doesn't mean anyone else is any smarter. So, no one is really smart or dumb here to be termed the herd or the leaders. So in essence, we are using that ratio as an indicator and we are going against it. Like 90% and up, do the opposite. It has 9 out of 10 success rate according to someone who commented above. This is just another...
The institutions always go with the trend, the herd don't. If you use a bucket shop broker if you buy 1 lot GBPUSD they will take 1 lot GBPUSD sell..
Honesty, Integrity and Transparency
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